3 ms·

what does this mean, "each individual prediction of each of the 56 (enumerated upthread) distinct elections"? how many predictions are there for each election?

• dragonwriter 4y ago
  > how many predictions are there for each election? One for each batch (which may be as small as one) of data (polls specifically in the polls-only model) added to the data; each takes into account current and past polls, with time.-based decay in weighting, distance from the election, and other factors. This includes polls for other contests in the same cycle, because the models accounts for correlation between them. > does 538 issue more than one per election? Sometimes multiple in a day for an election (especially the Presidential general election.) > Or how many data points are there? Well the scale for the bubbles on the Presidential election night calibration plot runs from 30-300 per bucket, and there’s 21 buckets. > I have no idea what you're talking about, re "non-zero risk premium." If you don't understand risk premiums and the asymmetric utility of nontrivial quantities of money, you have really no business talking about when a bet is reasonable.