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Okay I understand the point you are trying to make (your concern is more about reserves). I'll differ with you slightly here: US dollar reserves are highest pur
by shri_krishna 3y ago
Okay I understand the point you are trying to make (your concern is more about reserves). I'll differ with you slightly here: US dollar reserves are highest purely because we use USD for imports from other countries too. That is why it is the most sought after today. We are all selling to US consumers primarily because we want those dollars to trade with other countries as all trade happens through SWIFT. However, with de-dollarization, we are trading with each other in our own currencies. Now obviously that would mean we wouldn't be storing more than what is minimally required in USD reserves as we would be holding a bigger basket of currencies instead.
Would USD reserves still exist? Yes. Would the volume of those reserves remain intact? Absolutely not. It will reduce significantly as it gets replaced by reserve currencies of the countries we have direct bilateral trade with. Is that going to reset the USD price in the market? Obviously yes. Water finds its level. So will USD. Would USD still be the most sought after? Depends on the US consumer. If the US consumer still has an appetite for goods/services it will be the most sought after.
You see, until now, all non-US countries were forced to be in the SWIFT system because we had no other way to trade. Now that we do, the reliance on USD as a reserve currency falls. USD will find its level eventually.
Also, do not forget demographics. US is losing the demographic race. The "young population" is shrinking rapidly and they are the "consumers" in any consumption economy. Like Elon Musk said recently, demographics is destiny. And US is losing that race and is not realizing it. Consumption will slow down majorly in the coming decades and other countries have to think of alternative solutions. Because consumption will move to where the "young population" is. And demographics decides that.
- actionfromafar 3y agoIf the US is losing in demographics, what do we call China demographics? Dropping off a cliff?