4 ms·

Tons of people predicted this when sanctions hit.

XorNot 3y ago
And they're still not right, just like they weren't right in 2010, 2000, 1990, 1980... The idea of the decline of the US as a reserve currency has been "about to happen" for me entire life, and yet another cherry-picked graph won't make it more likely.
- user_named 3y ago
  Yes, they're right.
- jliptzin 3y ago
  Same thing with gold. Apparently I needed to be buying gold since before I was born and every year since because hyperinflation is always right around the corner.
  - eska 3y ago
    Gold went up a lot though
    - consp 3y ago
      So gold has hyperinflated? Maybe I understood the buy gold because of inflation all wrong and it was just a marketing gimick to ramp up the price.
      - logicchains 3y ago
        >So gold has hyperinflated The price of gold going up is the opposite of inflation. Hyper-inflation is when the "price" (value) of a currency massively decreases, not increases.
        dragonelite 3y ago
        It's the same thing as people celebrating inflation went back to 7% over here in Europe. Then i have to remind them the Euro still lost 7% of its value. If the Euro worth increased they would have used deflation and not inflation. At least that was in my high school economics 101 classes.
    - Aunche 3y ago
      Gold went up a lot while it was illegal for people own significant quantities of gold. After that, gold on average has barely kept up with inflation.
  - FredPret 3y ago
    I never get this. We're digging our mines deeper and deeper. Automation is improving by leaps and bounds. What happens when we start mining deeper in the crust where there is probably much more gold? I feel like commodity prices tend to get pushed down by tech improvements.
    - AnimalMuppet 3y ago
      "Probably" is doing a lot of work for you there. So far as I know, there is no reason to suppose that the chemical composition of the earth's crust is significantly higher in gold at deeper levels.
      - FredPret 3y ago
        Heavier elements sink to the bottom. The liquid core is mostly iron, so I would expect the even heavier gold, uranium, platinum, etc to be distributed closer to the centre of mass than the surface. Now the crust is not liquid but it is very old and there have been lots of plate tectonics. I imagine all the shaking and scraping would be enough to get the gold in deeper. It's interesting to note that the richest gold field we have was created when a meteorite hit the Earth so hard, the deeper parts of the crust got bent upward and lay closer to the surface (Vredefort dome). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vredefort_impact_structure https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vredefort_impact_structure
    - jliptzin 3y ago
      Not to mention asteroid mining
- rippercushions 3y ago
  Not sure why this being downvoted: I can still remember people freaking about about the superior buying power and stability of the Japanese yen in the 1980s.
- kevinak 3y ago
  I think this time actually is different. For the first time ever we now have a currency that is controlled by no one, with no third party risk, that can be sent in seconds across the world. It's called Bitcoin.
  - avidphantasm 3y ago
    Yes, let’s hitch our wagon to a massively deflationary currency that can only clear a few hundred transactions per day.

And they're still not right, just like they weren't right in 2010, 2000, 1990, 1980... The idea of the decline of the US as a reserve currency has been "about to happen" for me entire life, and yet another cherry-picked graph won't make it more likely.

user_named 3y ago
Yes, they're right.
jliptzin 3y ago
Same thing with gold. Apparently I needed to be buying gold since before I was born and every year since because hyperinflation is always right around the corner.
- eska 3y ago
  Gold went up a lot though
  - consp 3y ago
    So gold has hyperinflated? Maybe I understood the buy gold because of inflation all wrong and it was just a marketing gimick to ramp up the price.
    - logicchains 3y ago
      >So gold has hyperinflated The price of gold going up is the opposite of inflation. Hyper-inflation is when the "price" (value) of a currency massively decreases, not increases.
      - dragonelite 3y ago
        It's the same thing as people celebrating inflation went back to 7% over here in Europe. Then i have to remind them the Euro still lost 7% of its value. If the Euro worth increased they would have used deflation and not inflation. At least that was in my high school economics 101 classes.
  - Aunche 3y ago
    Gold went up a lot while it was illegal for people own significant quantities of gold. After that, gold on average has barely kept up with inflation.
- FredPret 3y ago
  I never get this. We're digging our mines deeper and deeper. Automation is improving by leaps and bounds. What happens when we start mining deeper in the crust where there is probably much more gold? I feel like commodity prices tend to get pushed down by tech improvements.
  - AnimalMuppet 3y ago
    "Probably" is doing a lot of work for you there. So far as I know, there is no reason to suppose that the chemical composition of the earth's crust is significantly higher in gold at deeper levels.
    - FredPret 3y ago
      Heavier elements sink to the bottom. The liquid core is mostly iron, so I would expect the even heavier gold, uranium, platinum, etc to be distributed closer to the centre of mass than the surface. Now the crust is not liquid but it is very old and there have been lots of plate tectonics. I imagine all the shaking and scraping would be enough to get the gold in deeper. It's interesting to note that the richest gold field we have was created when a meteorite hit the Earth so hard, the deeper parts of the crust got bent upward and lay closer to the surface (Vredefort dome). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vredefort_impact_structure https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vredefort_impact_structure
  - jliptzin 3y ago
    Not to mention asteroid mining
rippercushions 3y ago
Not sure why this being downvoted: I can still remember people freaking about about the superior buying power and stability of the Japanese yen in the 1980s.
kevinak 3y ago
I think this time actually is different. For the first time ever we now have a currency that is controlled by no one, with no third party risk, that can be sent in seconds across the world. It's called Bitcoin.
- avidphantasm 3y ago
  Yes, let’s hitch our wagon to a massively deflationary currency that can only clear a few hundred transactions per day.