OK, you're right, there are 56 elections, and what I meant by "no bearing" is, there has to be polling in most or all of the swing states. Furthermore, the swin

OK, you're right, there are 56 elections, and what I meant by "no bearing" is, there has to be polling in most or all of the swing states. Furthermore, the swing states have weights. So it's a much more difficult problem than a single district, and a much noisier estimate since the per-state noise compounds. I don't blame anyone for getting it wrong. It's a hard problem.