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I think we'll have full-blown AGI before fusion and before world-changing levels of quantum computing. Which is to say, we won't be around to see fusion and wo

I think we'll have full-blown AGI before fusion and before world-changing levels of quantum computing. Which is to say, we won't be around to see fusion and world-changing quantum :( But there's still time for robo-taxis!

valine 3y ago
Or, more optimistically, AGI will accelerate scientific progress and we will have fusion, quantum computers, and self driving cars shortly after. If AIs had the tendency to recursively devour worlds you would expect at least one alien AI to have conquered our galaxy by now. But the sky is quiet, so either we are the very first species to get this far, or there’s a natural ceiling to the pace of technological progress.
- deagle50 3y ago
  The directives that mandated eliminating its creators don't necessarily lead to interstellar conquest. Or more likely IMO, we're just too far apart and interstellar travel isn't feasible even for artificial super intelligence.
  - 300bps 3y ago
    Here’s a paper that shows how a civilization could colonize the galaxy in under 300 million years: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1902.04450.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/1902.04450.pdf Here’s a YouTube visualization of the timeline: https://youtu.be/hNMgtRf0GOg https://youtu.be/hNMgtRf0GOg
    - pixl97 3y ago
      What is the actual rate of intelligences per galaxy, not the simulated one? Galaxies are very far apart from each other.
- VirusNewbie 3y ago
  Why do we need the G to do any of these things? I assume non general intelligence should be further along, so shouldn’t this recursive self improvement happen before the general part?
- garbagecoder 3y ago
  >you would expect There is no evidence that an actually existing thing like a Von Neumann probe can survive interstellar travel. I think that the answer to all of these paradoxes is that special relativity just makes it basically impossible. That’s anathema to us nerds, I know. That’s a very thin argument to hang a Pandora’s Box opening on. It only needs to devour one planet, though we appear to be doing that ourselves too.
- TheDudeMan 3y ago
  They probably can't overcome the universal speed limit. Space is big.
  - valine 3y ago
    A nearly omnipotent AI could probably get close to light speed, which would allow it to reach all edges of the galaxy in 100,000 or so years.
    - alex_duf 3y ago
      That's assuming the AI really wants to make a lot of paperclips though
      - valine 3y ago
        I'd say a hallmark of an intelligent agent is knowledge seeking. You can only learn so much without venturing out into space.
        pixl97 3y ago
        There is a slight possibility that this is an unintelligent question, with humanity being ignorant as to why that's the case. The universe we live in is only around 14 billion years old, which under the ideas of how long a universe could be around is actually a tiny immeasurably small blip on eternity. Before our universe started there was a vacuum metastability event somewhere that we at least assume had a nice even entropy. Again, that instability happened pretty damned recently... So what if the first thing any super intelligence realizes is that at any moment our universe could have another such instability event? It's not going to work on exploring the vast distances of space... It's going to figure out if it can develop a plan to GTFO of here to a plain of reality that's more stable than this one.
        TheDudeMan 3y ago
        There is evolution at work. Those who venture out will come to dominate the universe. Those who do not will be suffocated.
gumballindie 3y ago
You may be onto something. AGI is one or two marketing campaigns away while fusion is hard science - difficult to fake.
zamnos 3y ago
The future is here, its just unevenly distributed. If you live in a specific collection of neighborhoods in San Francisco or Phoenix, robo taxis are already here.
- Aerbil313 3y ago
  Haha, I just read the other day on r/collapse that "Collapse (of the civilization) is already here, just not evenly distributed."
  - CatWChainsaw 3y ago
    Good news is you're both right. Collapse is the future. :)
fakedang 3y ago
Honestly, I think robotaxis would have existed already by now, provided every vehicle is a robo-taxi. IIRC, robotaxis tend to perform smoothly in environments where they alone operate - I think Google proved that in some test concept many years before.
kristopolous 3y ago
There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.

valine 3y ago

Or, more optimistically, AGI will accelerate scientific progress and we will have fusion, quantum computers, and self driving cars shortly after. If AIs had the tendency to recursively devour worlds you would expect at least one alien AI to have conquered our galaxy by now. But the sky is quiet, so either we are the very first species to get this far, or there’s a natural ceiling to the pace of technological progress.

deagle50 3y ago
The directives that mandated eliminating its creators don't necessarily lead to interstellar conquest. Or more likely IMO, we're just too far apart and interstellar travel isn't feasible even for artificial super intelligence.
- 300bps 3y ago
  Here’s a paper that shows how a civilization could colonize the galaxy in under 300 million years: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1902.04450.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/1902.04450.pdf Here’s a YouTube visualization of the timeline: https://youtu.be/hNMgtRf0GOg https://youtu.be/hNMgtRf0GOg
  - pixl97 3y ago
    What is the actual rate of intelligences per galaxy, not the simulated one? Galaxies are very far apart from each other.
VirusNewbie 3y ago
Why do we need the G to do any of these things? I assume non general intelligence should be further along, so shouldn’t this recursive self improvement happen before the general part?
garbagecoder 3y ago
>you would expect There is no evidence that an actually existing thing like a Von Neumann probe can survive interstellar travel. I think that the answer to all of these paradoxes is that special relativity just makes it basically impossible. That’s anathema to us nerds, I know. That’s a very thin argument to hang a Pandora’s Box opening on. It only needs to devour one planet, though we appear to be doing that ourselves too.
TheDudeMan 3y ago
They probably can't overcome the universal speed limit. Space is big.
- valine 3y ago
  A nearly omnipotent AI could probably get close to light speed, which would allow it to reach all edges of the galaxy in 100,000 or so years.
  - alex_duf 3y ago
    That's assuming the AI really wants to make a lot of paperclips though
    - valine 3y ago
      I'd say a hallmark of an intelligent agent is knowledge seeking. You can only learn so much without venturing out into space.
      - pixl97 3y ago
        There is a slight possibility that this is an unintelligent question, with humanity being ignorant as to why that's the case. The universe we live in is only around 14 billion years old, which under the ideas of how long a universe could be around is actually a tiny immeasurably small blip on eternity. Before our universe started there was a vacuum metastability event somewhere that we at least assume had a nice even entropy. Again, that instability happened pretty damned recently... So what if the first thing any super intelligence realizes is that at any moment our universe could have another such instability event? It's not going to work on exploring the vast distances of space... It's going to figure out if it can develop a plan to GTFO of here to a plain of reality that's more stable than this one.
      - TheDudeMan 3y ago
        There is evolution at work. Those who venture out will come to dominate the universe. Those who do not will be suffocated.

gumballindie 3y ago

You may be onto something. AGI is one or two marketing campaigns away while fusion is hard science - difficult to fake.

zamnos 3y ago

The future is here, its just unevenly distributed. If you live in a specific collection of neighborhoods in San Francisco or Phoenix, robo taxis are already here.

Aerbil313 3y ago
Haha, I just read the other day on r/collapse that "Collapse (of the civilization) is already here, just not evenly distributed."
- CatWChainsaw 3y ago
  Good news is you're both right. Collapse is the future. :)

fakedang 3y ago

Honestly, I think robotaxis would have existed already by now, provided every vehicle is a robo-taxi. IIRC, robotaxis tend to perform smoothly in environments where they alone operate - I think Google proved that in some test concept many years before.

kristopolous 3y ago

There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.