5 ms·
The other few things possible in next few years for past few years are: 1. Fusion 2. Self driving cars. 3. Ubiquitous, generally available and stable 8192 bit
by wg0 4y ago
The other few things possible in next few years for past few years are:
1. Fusion
2. Self driving cars.
3. Ubiquitous, generally available and stable 8192 bit quantum computers.
4. High energy density grid scale batteries.
Just few more "this maybe the... what could revolutionize..." articles away.
What we forget is that it is in these people's business interest (executives making such statements) to state the exaggerated version of a future which drives the investors of all levels to allocate funds under FOMO which pumps up share price which is the end goal anyway, through a breakthrough or without.
EDIT: Merged another comment to keep all in one place.
- pnpnp 4y agoJust a point with #4. Grid scale batteries don’t need to be “high energy density” like EVs. I would argue that cost is probably the biggest factor, and it’s already across the cost/benefit barrier in many markets.
- oittaa 4y agoThis. It surprises me every time when battery or any "green" technology is discussed here and 90% of Americans keep parroting Trump's talking points. For example one of the comments above is talking about how EVs are just "a rich boy's toy".
- alex_duf 4y agoIn fairness EVs still are more expensive than petrol cars. I'm hoping this will change though
- oittaa 4y agoOn average usage case Tesla Model 3 is already cheaper than Toyota Corolla. Chevy Bolt, while they still sell it, is even cheaper. inb4: I only buy 20 year old cars for $500 and I want to drive 1000km without stopping while shitting in my pants.
- TheDudeMan 4y agoI think we'll have full-blown AGI before fusion and before world-changing levels of quantum computing. Which is to say, we won't be around to see fusion and world-changing quantum :( But there's still time for robo-taxis!
- valine 4y agoOr, more optimistically, AGI will accelerate scientific progress and we will have fusion, quantum computers, and self driving cars shortly after. If AIs had the tendency to recursively devour worlds you would expect at least one alien AI to have conquered our galaxy by now. But the sky is quiet, so either we are the very first species to get this far, or there’s a natural ceiling to the pace of technological progress.
- deagle50 4y agoThe directives that mandated eliminating its creators don't necessarily lead to interstellar conquest. Or more likely IMO, we're just too far apart and interstellar travel isn't feasible even for artificial super intelligence.
- 300bps 4y agoHere’s a paper that shows how a civilization could colonize the galaxy in under 300 million years: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1902.04450.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/1902.04450.pdf Here’s a YouTube visualization of the timeline: https://youtu.be/hNMgtRf0GOg https://youtu.be/hNMgtRf0GOg
- pixl97 4y agoWhat is the actual rate of intelligences per galaxy, not the simulated one? Galaxies are very far apart from each other.
- VirusNewbie 4y agoWhy do we need the G to do any of these things? I assume non general intelligence should be further along, so shouldn’t this recursive self improvement happen before the general part?
- resource0x 4y agoFusion by 1990 with a bit of extra investment promised in 1972 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.175.4027.1194.b https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.175.4027.1194.b I remember tons of articles from that time arguing the same. Then the attention shifted to "fifth-generation computers".
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- gwoolhurme 4y agoThat is actually a really interesting find. Some of the verbiage is parallel to the hype we have around AGI right now too "fusion by 1990 instead of 2000..." does that not sound exactly like AGI in X year up from Y year that we read now?
- patrickas 4y agoPlease see my reply to parent. > "fusion by 1990 instead of 2000..." Those three dots are omitting the most important part of the issue if we spend that much extra money on R&D In the fusion case no one was willing to spend the money, in AGI's case it looks like everyone seems to be willing to spend the money. I personally hope they won't, but that is a crutial point not to be overlooked.
- gwoolhurme 4y agoThat wasn’t the case at all for fusion. It is that to be viable different scientific breakthroughs in particle physics, and lasers. Especially to the point where the demo recently showed the viability of it. If you read up on it you’ll see that there was a lot of important steps that lead up to the short demo that was achieved. That is my point though, if you read the article even after the ellipses it wasn’t a monetary issue.
- patrickas 4y agoI don't think this contradicts the AGI prediction though (nor the "Fusion by 1990 with a bit of extra investment" prediction for that matters) https://external-preview.redd.it/LkKBNe1NW51Wh-8nLSTRdQtTha2sV1yY46vhUWcu_6g.png?auto=webp&v=enabled&s=15d1e920ad6cc4047b5edd70be1ef51de01bbec0 https://external-preview.redd.it/LkKBNe1NW51Wh-8nLSTRdQtTha2... This chart shows how much people in the 1970s estimated should be invested to have fusion by 1990, to have it by 2000s and to "never" have it. We ended up spending below the "never" amount for research over four decades so of course fusion never happened exactly as predicted. I think the main difference is that no one was interested in investing in fusion back then, while everyone is interested in investing in AGI now.
- testfoobar 4y agoI'll add another one: all trucks and cars will be electric in 10 years.
- blooalien 4y ago"A flying car in every garage…"
- wg0 4y agoDon't see that happening. Electric cars are either a rich boy's toy or environmentalists or enthusiasts are into it. Average Joe with concerns of practicality and longevity is sticking to ICEs for foreseeable future.
- WillPostForFood 4y agoOTOH, Average Joe is mandating 50% electric cars by 2030 and 66% by 2032! It is going to be the battle of the Average Joes.
- lofaszvanitt 4y agoNope.
- alex_duf 4y agoI'd reformulate it like this: "Most new trucks and cars will be electric in 10 years" The keywords being "most" and "new"
- _hypx 4y agoGrid scale energy storage is basically solved once you realize that hydrogen storage is an option already. It's in the same boat as when photovoltaics got very cheap, but skeptics continued to deny that possibility for some years afterwards.
- automatic6131 4y ago>once you realize that hydrogen storage is an option already With unavoidable ~30% efficiency (or ~70%) energy loss, requiring an overcapacity factor of 2-3...
- _hypx 4y agoThat's the same argument used against solar, that it is too inefficient. It's also greatly exaggerated, another thing it has in common with solar. Fuel cell systems are electrochemical systems and can be easily improved beyond that level. Especially with large facilities where waste heat can be recaptured and reused.
- alex_duf 4y agoIsn't hydrogen extremely hard to store over a long period of time ? (Seasonal)
- _hypx 4y agoNo. That is its strength.
- mtlmtlmtlmtl 4y agoNot sure when you last upgraded your pc. Personally I'm running the latest roomtemp superconducting, 4Giqb quantum memristor computer. It even remotely drives my fusion-powered car over the quantum internet!
- asdfman123 4y agoDon’t forget mentioning your new AI girlfriend
- signatoremo 4y agoYou cherry pick examples that fit a narrative. Many things thought to be a distant dream have now become reality - cheap solar electricity, pocket computer for everyone, mRNA vaccine, affordable electric car with acceptable range, reusable rocket, satellite based broadband internet, image recognition, translation, and now generative AI. Why didn’t we hear much about them from CEOs before they were available? Also, which CEO promised fusion being available in the next few years? Or only wildly optimistic scientists?
- adamisom 4y agoWe don’t all forget about incentives people might have in saying something; but we also don’t all assume that the first convenient explanation is adequate. Numbers 1-4 obviously don’t have enormous recent progress nor the funding and mindshare poured into, and pouring in, as consequence.
- trabant00 4y agoWe're not reading news, we're reading press releases. And to be honest I would have hoped for a healthier dose of skepticism from HN. Vaporware and hype are common things in software. Ship it, let me play with it, then we'll talk about it.
- agentdrtran 4y agowere we ever promised high-speed (fiber) internet everywhere or was that always a pipe dream?
- alex_duf 4y agoThat's heavily dependent on where you live. We're getting high speed internet pretty much everywhere in France. It's a program full of controversies, but here I am in a 3k inhabitant village with a 10gbps connection for 40€ a month... (Yes, 10Gbps, I'm throttled by my gigabit ethernet) If you can't get fiber here you get a subsidised 4G / 5G router for a very reasonable price.
- Ancalagon 4y agodon't forget room temperature super conductors