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No, there are not "hundreds, perhaps thousands, of events and several orders of magnitude" There is one event. The US House, Senate, and state elections have c
by AlbertCory 4y ago
No, there are not "hundreds, perhaps thousands, of events and several orders of magnitude"
There is one event. The US House, Senate, and state elections have completely different methodologies and no bearing on the Presidential election, which is enormously complicated by the Electoral College.
- dragonwriter 4y ago> The US House, Senate, and state elections have completely different methodologies No, they don’t. > and no bearing on the Presidential election Even when considering the Presidential general election in isolation, there are currently 56 (51 statewide, including D.C., plus by-district elections for 2 electors in Maine and 3 in Nebraska) elections of presidential electors, which not only “have a bearing on” but strictly determine (absent irregularities that 538 doesn’t purport to address) the Presidential election.
- AlbertCory 4y agoOK, you're right, there are 56 elections, and what I meant by "no bearing" is, there has to be polling in most or all of the swing states. Furthermore, the swing states have weights. So it's a much more difficult problem than a single district, and a much noisier estimate since the per-state noise compounds. I don't blame anyone for getting it wrong. It's a hard problem.