If there is a 2/3 chance of a thing, and you say there's a 2/3 chance of the thing, you're doing your job right even though you "got it wrong" in hindsight 1/3

If there is a 2/3 chance of a thing, and you say there's a 2/3 chance of the thing, you're doing your job right even though you "got it wrong" in hindsight 1/3 of the time. If you want to assess how someone is doing at prediction, you need to look at a lot of predictions and if they're giving probability estimates you want to apply a proper scoring rule. If you're going to make grand pronouncements based on a single close race being labeled the wrong side of close, get out of here.