23 ms·

A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago

190 points by GBond 15y ago

fluorescentLAMP 15y ago
I'm involved in the startup scene for soccer "moneyball" metric development. If anyone has any interest, contact me.
- farkob 15y ago
  I'm interested.
- marklabedz 15y ago
  Definitely interested. Mind putting your contact info in your profile?
- paulschreiber 15y ago
  A friend of mine is interested in stats for dodgeball. (yes, really!) let me know if you're interested and i'll connect you.
- sharksandwich 15y ago
  Curious to hear what you're up to as well
michael_dorfman 15y ago
Wouldn't it be more noteworthy if we weren't able to find one analyst who predicted Lin? With the number of amateur analysts, and the number of players, you'd think that its likely there's a web page somewhere plugging every prospect.
- corin_ 15y ago
  Reminds me of that classic scam of sending out sports (or anything else) predictions to a huge mailing list, and basically AB testing in such a way that after a little time there are at least x% who think your success rate is incredible.
  - ShabbyDoo 15y ago
    Yeah. Done historically by stockbrokers making cold calls. Every week, "Now, don't put your money with me just yet. Here's what I'm putting my clients into this week. Just watch Stock XYZ this week to see what happens." If you pick three highly volatile stocks every week, make a lot of calls, and drop the prospects to whom you have given "bad" advice, you'll end-up with a decent sized set of potential clients who think you are a god.
  - jimmybot 15y ago
    How is this anywhere the same? In a scam, you don't have any way of making any future correct predictions--it's just random. This analyst has a reasoned system that can be tested against past players and against future prospects. Sure, there's going to be someone out there that picks Jeremy Lin. But the trick is, can you correctly identify players who are already known to be good based on their college stats, make the right call on Jeremy Lin, and go forward and continue to make good calls on draft prospects? I'm not saying this sabermetrician generally makes good calls; I haven't looked. But dismissing his call as the result of a series of Bernoulli trials is completely missing the point.
    - Retric 15y ago
      His point is the number of people making predictions is high enough that it raises the bar for people to stand out from the pack. Basically run an ANOVA test on 10 groups vs 10,000 groups and it takes a larger divination to stand out from the pack. PS: It does not matter if there is a system behind their predictions, what matters is how well their predictions hold up over time. Otherwise your just: http://xkcd.com/904/ http://xkcd.com/904/
      - mrobataille 15y ago
        That's my favorite xkcd - so simple, and true. Ironic side note - I tried to use it as my ESPN.com forum account avatar, and was denied.
    - corin_ 15y ago
- marknutter 15y ago
  That doesn't really detract from the accomplishment. The numbers don't lie. To me it's clear that despite Lin's strong numbers, he wasn't given a chance until now because he didn't fit the archetypal NBA player mold.
- lubujackson 15y ago
  I'd say the impressive thing is the analyst found some figures that seemed to have a high correlation to success, and Lin has panned out pretty close to how he described him. And remember, this is a player who wasn't even drafted, it'd be like finding an analyst tell you Tom Brady has a chance to be a top 5 QB before he was drafted in the 6th round after being a partial backup at Michigan, and backing it up with convincing data.
zheng 15y ago
What surprises me most about this story isn't that it happened, but that people still are surprised it works. A data-driven approach will always be better than picking people by how good they "look", etc. Human scouts are biased, make mistakes, and miss plays. Statistics don't lie. The one catch is of course how you analyze those statistics makes all the difference.
- GBond 15y ago
  Not surprised that most experts(NBA & DI school scouts) don't embrace this because it is easier and safer to go with the typical archetype as opposed to raw stats. Its "human nature" safe in the sense most people will not question if you go with the established archetype. It also devalues the current process of scouting. An apt quote from the movie Moneyball: "I know you've taken it in the teeth out there, but the first guy through the wall. It always gets bloody, always. It's the threat and not just the way of doing business, but in their minds it's threatening the game. But really what it's threatening is their livelihoods, it's threatening their jobs, it's threatening the way that they do things. And every time that happens, whether it's the government or a way of doing business or whatever it is, the people are holding the reins, have their hands on the switch. They will bet you're crazy. I mean, anybody who's not building a team right and rebuilding it using your model, they're dinosaurs. They'll be sittin' on their ass on the sofa in October, watch the Boston Red Sox win the world series."
  - gregpilling 15y ago
    "Sometimes the convincing force is just time itself and the human toll it takes, Kuhn said, using a quote from Max Planck: "a new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it."[1]" from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradigm_shift http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradigm_shift
  - jamesaguilar 15y ago
    Erm, as I understand it most NBA organizations have significant statistics/economics departments. I don't think the practice of going by looks or things of that nature is dominant any more except for sports pundits trying to rationalize events after they have happened.
ivanzhao 15y ago
Noticed the article was written a year ago (May 13, 2010), and Lin went undrafted that year.
minouye 15y ago
How is he calculating RSB40? I'm guessing its some sort of weighted average of rebounds, steals, and blocks but I can't find a solid definition.
- jcliff85 15y ago
  (Rebounds + Steals + Blocks) / (40 mins)
  - jimmybot 15y ago
    I know what you mean, but technically, it's: (Rebounds + Steals + Blocks) * (40 mins) / (minutes played)
    - GigabyteCoin 15y ago
      I think he meant that more as an english statement than a mathematical one. It is indeed the number of rebounds, steals and blocks PER 40 minute interval.
milhous 15y ago
It's spelled 'statistician'.
bretthopper 15y ago
Just some background for those not familiar with "Lin-sanity": - He was a great college player at Harvard but wasn't drafted. - He was cut by 2 NBA teams before the Knicks picked him up. - He was probably the 4th point guard on the Knicks depth chart. - The Knicks have been terrible this year and are currently without their 2 best players (Amare Stoudamire and Carmello Anthony) - The Knicks have now won 4 straight games with Jeremy Lin playing big minutes (including 3 starts). - The 89 points he scored in his first three starts (including Friday) got him a historical distinction. They are the most scored by an NBA player in his first three starts since the NBA-ABA merger 1976-77. - Everyone loves him.
- WillyF 15y ago
  If you go by the WP48 stat, Amare is actually the Knicks' second worst player and Carmelo is their 8th best player. Tyson Chandler is by far their best player, and is currently the second best player behind LeBron. http://www.thenbageek.com/teams/nyk http://www.thenbageek.com/teams/nyk
  - fanboy123 15y ago
    He's also currently ranked 2nd in PER right behind LeBron James who by most metrics is the most dominant player in the NBA. PER is a metric for player efficiency adjusted for pace and time played etc. Pretty nuts. http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba%2fhollinger%2fstatistics http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?&act...
  - MatthewPhillips 15y ago
    WP isn't really considered a credible metric in the basketball stat community. It overvalues rebounding; players such as Danny Fortson and Reggie Evans have been ranked in top 5 for WP.
- pepdek 15y ago
  I'd like to add the Knicks gave serious consideration to cutting him from the roster hours before his first start because his 30-day contract was set to expire in a few days.
bilbo0s 15y ago
Hmm... I looked into his stats because I don't pay much attention to the Knicks. At any rate I think Jeremy Lin is definitely going to have a good deal of trouble succeeding long term. There are a number of concerns there, but by far the biggest is TOs. In each game he's played, he has had the most TOs of any player. You can coach that away but one of two things will happen, his FGs will go up and his ASSTs will go down, or his ASSTs will go up and his FGs will go down. What you want, for a lot of reasons that most of you probably already know, is for the latter to happen. What seems to be happening is the former. There is a reason it is called a Point Guard. That needs to be fixed or other coaches will definitely take advantage of it when it counts. You say, "well no problem...when Stoudemire and Anthony get back the problem will ameliorate." It may. I don't know. I would have to revisit his stats at that time. If I had to bet, I would bet that it will get better. But other young PGs struggle with the same issue...to the detriment of their teams in my opinion. I guess what I am saying is that success in basketball, as measured in rings, requires stats optimized for balance and flexibility rather than strength. When Jason Williams finally got to Miami he was a more balanced PG. IIRC, during the 2006 finals he averaged 12 points and 7 ASSTs. Critically, at that point in his career TOs were under control. Jason Williams peaked at, somewhere around 3.5 a game. Jeremy Lin is averaging twice that at least. Not good. And consider, Jason Williams could make some of that up on the back end with steals. Not so much with Jeremy. So I can see why a lot of statisticians would look at Jeremy Lin and say,"...well with my personnel...I'll have to pass on this guy." Of course if we scour the web we will find one guy who rated him highly, that is the nature of the beast. But there are a lot of good reasons that a lot of good scouts did not rate him highly. And most strategists probably see a lot of those reasons every time he plays. All that said, Jason Williams, after initially playing a lot like Jeremy, achieved a REALLY good ASST/TO rating. If it wasn't THE highest...it was close. But again, that's the 12 points 7 ASSTs Jason Williams, which is what you want in a PG if you want to get to a ring.
- jschmitz28 15y ago
  In response to the turnovers, I want to mention that there are a couple reasons for that. The first is that he's playing PG and has to handle the ball a lot more than anyone else on the team right now. Combined with his minutes, that's generally going to give you more TO's just because of the amount of time with the ball and the probability of a player of his skill level losing it (although this point doesn't account for other PG's who average way fewer TO's). Second, he's just started to play a ridiculous amount of minutes over the past week and hasn't had enough time to refine himself yet. Did you watch the first couple weeks of games this season? Because of the lockout this year, there were almost no preseason games and it showed. Turnover rates were extremely high for pretty much every team, so I'm inclined to think that Lin can get his turnovers down throughout the rest of the season assuming they keep playing him. My last point is a pretty obvious one, but he's still young. A few more years of experience and I expect to see turnovers go down. I watched his 38 point game last night, and while he played pretty amazing, he did have moments where he looked confused and flustered when running the offense.
carguy1983 15y ago
HN-related factoid: Jeremy Lin was born in southern CA, grew up in Palo Alto and both of his parents are immigrant engineers.
noelwelsh 15y ago
I love Jeremy Lin as a player and I really hope he succeeds. However, it must be said: Four games does not a statistically significant sample make. Read the NBA Playbook breakdown of his game: http://nbaplaybook.com/2012/02/08/a-look-at-jeremy-lin/ http://nbaplaybook.com/2012/02/08/a-look-at-jeremy-lin/ In summary, he isn't good going left or shooting from distance. So far he hasn't played an elite defensive team. The true test will come if he can sustain his performance over the season and against good defence. Let's hope he does it!
- steve8918 15y ago
  So what if he hasn't played against an elite defensive team. That is irrelevant to determine whether or not he will succeed. How many players would do well against an elite defense team? Probably not a lot, otherwise they wouldn't be an elite defensive team. No one is saying that he's going to be another Stockton, Nash, Wade (although Magic Johnson did say that Lin reminded him of Stockton and Nash), and he doesn't need to be in order to succeed. If he can keep the caliber of his game up to NBA standards, he can accomplish what he wanted, which is to play in the NBA, and that's all that matters. His performance over the past 4 games is saying pretty strongly that he can play at this level. Remember, he just played against over 10% of the league already and has been the best player on the court. If the Knicks elite players can get their act together, then Lin only needs to contribute positively in order to maintain a strong career.
  - noelwelsh 15y ago
    You make some good points. Lin has probably already done enough to have a decent NBA career and retire with millions in the bank. However the hype surrounding Lin is that's he more than that. The main point I wanted to make is that four games is not enough data to make that conclusion. He's certainly lucky to play for D'Antoni, who is just about the only coach in the NBA who'd let a point guard freelance like Lin has. He's also lucky that the Knicks' star players are out so he doesn't have the pressure to just pass them the rock, which wouldn't showcase his skills. It will be interesting to see how Lin plays with Amare and especially Carmelo. We know from Phoenix that Amare is perfectly happy running the pick-and-roll with a good point guard. 'Melo prefers to handle the ball more, so there could be conflict there.
ecounysis 15y ago
How many false positives has this statistician had over their career?
mathattack 15y ago
The original post suggests he will be a lottery pick, perhaps first overall. Whoops. The writer caught his being undervalued but overestimated the math skills of basketball GMs. It's hard to avoid the Linsanity now.
BeeLee 15y ago
Great find, GBond. I found it an interesting read. Thanks!
BeeLee 15y ago
Great find, GBond. I found it an interesting read. Thanks! I don't know how to do this, but can someone write a script and test it against the past 4-5 NBA drafts to see how accurately this guy's formula works? It would be really neat to see the results. Anyone up to test it???
achompas 15y ago
I'm learning/reviewing MCMC methods now for work and...how about a MCMC algorithm that takes in basketball box scores and attempts to generate estimates of each player's ability? You'd probably have to deal with too many parameters (one for each player in the league)...or maybe not? Pardon the vagueness, I'm only suggesting this as a theoretical exercise. EDIT: well, that didn't take long. http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~zhangk/2010%20Scoring%20and%20Shooting%20Abilities%20of%20NBA%20Players.pdf http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~zhangk/2010%20Scoring%20a...
stevengg 15y ago
here is a good article about how players leverage stats to force the other team into low percentage shots and plays http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/magazine/15Battier-t.html?pagewanted=all http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/magazine/15Battier-t.html?...

190 points by GBond 15y ago

fluorescentLAMP 15y ago

I'm involved in the startup scene for soccer "moneyball" metric development. If anyone has any interest, contact me.

farkob 15y ago
I'm interested.
marklabedz 15y ago
Definitely interested. Mind putting your contact info in your profile?
paulschreiber 15y ago
A friend of mine is interested in stats for dodgeball. (yes, really!) let me know if you're interested and i'll connect you.
sharksandwich 15y ago
Curious to hear what you're up to as well

michael_dorfman 15y ago

Wouldn't it be more noteworthy if we weren't able to find one analyst who predicted Lin? With the number of amateur analysts, and the number of players, you'd think that its likely there's a web page somewhere plugging every prospect.

corin_ 15y ago
Reminds me of that classic scam of sending out sports (or anything else) predictions to a huge mailing list, and basically AB testing in such a way that after a little time there are at least x% who think your success rate is incredible.
- ShabbyDoo 15y ago
  Yeah. Done historically by stockbrokers making cold calls. Every week, "Now, don't put your money with me just yet. Here's what I'm putting my clients into this week. Just watch Stock XYZ this week to see what happens." If you pick three highly volatile stocks every week, make a lot of calls, and drop the prospects to whom you have given "bad" advice, you'll end-up with a decent sized set of potential clients who think you are a god.
- jimmybot 15y ago
  How is this anywhere the same? In a scam, you don't have any way of making any future correct predictions--it's just random. This analyst has a reasoned system that can be tested against past players and against future prospects. Sure, there's going to be someone out there that picks Jeremy Lin. But the trick is, can you correctly identify players who are already known to be good based on their college stats, make the right call on Jeremy Lin, and go forward and continue to make good calls on draft prospects? I'm not saying this sabermetrician generally makes good calls; I haven't looked. But dismissing his call as the result of a series of Bernoulli trials is completely missing the point.
  - Retric 15y ago
    His point is the number of people making predictions is high enough that it raises the bar for people to stand out from the pack. Basically run an ANOVA test on 10 groups vs 10,000 groups and it takes a larger divination to stand out from the pack. PS: It does not matter if there is a system behind their predictions, what matters is how well their predictions hold up over time. Otherwise your just: http://xkcd.com/904/ http://xkcd.com/904/
    - mrobataille 15y ago
      That's my favorite xkcd - so simple, and true. Ironic side note - I tried to use it as my ESPN.com forum account avatar, and was denied.
  - corin_ 15y ago
marknutter 15y ago
That doesn't really detract from the accomplishment. The numbers don't lie. To me it's clear that despite Lin's strong numbers, he wasn't given a chance until now because he didn't fit the archetypal NBA player mold.
lubujackson 15y ago
I'd say the impressive thing is the analyst found some figures that seemed to have a high correlation to success, and Lin has panned out pretty close to how he described him. And remember, this is a player who wasn't even drafted, it'd be like finding an analyst tell you Tom Brady has a chance to be a top 5 QB before he was drafted in the 6th round after being a partial backup at Michigan, and backing it up with convincing data.

zheng 15y ago

What surprises me most about this story isn't that it happened, but that people still are surprised it works. A data-driven approach will always be better than picking people by how good they "look", etc. Human scouts are biased, make mistakes, and miss plays. Statistics don't lie. The one catch is of course how you analyze those statistics makes all the difference.

GBond 15y ago
Not surprised that most experts(NBA & DI school scouts) don't embrace this because it is easier and safer to go with the typical archetype as opposed to raw stats. Its "human nature" safe in the sense most people will not question if you go with the established archetype. It also devalues the current process of scouting. An apt quote from the movie Moneyball: "I know you've taken it in the teeth out there, but the first guy through the wall. It always gets bloody, always. It's the threat and not just the way of doing business, but in their minds it's threatening the game. But really what it's threatening is their livelihoods, it's threatening their jobs, it's threatening the way that they do things. And every time that happens, whether it's the government or a way of doing business or whatever it is, the people are holding the reins, have their hands on the switch. They will bet you're crazy. I mean, anybody who's not building a team right and rebuilding it using your model, they're dinosaurs. They'll be sittin' on their ass on the sofa in October, watch the Boston Red Sox win the world series."
- gregpilling 15y ago
  "Sometimes the convincing force is just time itself and the human toll it takes, Kuhn said, using a quote from Max Planck: "a new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it."[1]" from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradigm_shift http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradigm_shift
- jamesaguilar 15y ago
  Erm, as I understand it most NBA organizations have significant statistics/economics departments. I don't think the practice of going by looks or things of that nature is dominant any more except for sports pundits trying to rationalize events after they have happened.

ivanzhao 15y ago

Noticed the article was written a year ago (May 13, 2010), and Lin went undrafted that year.

minouye 15y ago

How is he calculating RSB40? I'm guessing its some sort of weighted average of rebounds, steals, and blocks but I can't find a solid definition.

jcliff85 15y ago
(Rebounds + Steals + Blocks) / (40 mins)
- jimmybot 15y ago
  I know what you mean, but technically, it's: (Rebounds + Steals + Blocks) * (40 mins) / (minutes played)
  - GigabyteCoin 15y ago
    I think he meant that more as an english statement than a mathematical one. It is indeed the number of rebounds, steals and blocks PER 40 minute interval.

milhous 15y ago

It's spelled 'statistician'.

bretthopper 15y ago

Just some background for those not familiar with "Lin-sanity": - He was a great college player at Harvard but wasn't drafted. - He was cut by 2 NBA teams before the Knicks picked him up. - He was probably the 4th point guard on the Knicks depth chart. - The Knicks have been terrible this year and are currently without their 2 best players (Amare Stoudamire and Carmello Anthony) - The Knicks have now won 4 straight games with Jeremy Lin playing big minutes (including 3 starts). - The 89 points he scored in his first three starts (including Friday) got him a historical distinction. They are the most scored by an NBA player in his first three starts since the NBA-ABA merger 1976-77. - Everyone loves him.

WillyF 15y ago
If you go by the WP48 stat, Amare is actually the Knicks' second worst player and Carmelo is their 8th best player. Tyson Chandler is by far their best player, and is currently the second best player behind LeBron. http://www.thenbageek.com/teams/nyk http://www.thenbageek.com/teams/nyk
- fanboy123 15y ago
  He's also currently ranked 2nd in PER right behind LeBron James who by most metrics is the most dominant player in the NBA. PER is a metric for player efficiency adjusted for pace and time played etc. Pretty nuts. http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba%2fhollinger%2fstatistics http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?&act...
- MatthewPhillips 15y ago
  WP isn't really considered a credible metric in the basketball stat community. It overvalues rebounding; players such as Danny Fortson and Reggie Evans have been ranked in top 5 for WP.
pepdek 15y ago
I'd like to add the Knicks gave serious consideration to cutting him from the roster hours before his first start because his 30-day contract was set to expire in a few days.

bilbo0s 15y ago

Hmm... I looked into his stats because I don't pay much attention to the Knicks. At any rate I think Jeremy Lin is definitely going to have a good deal of trouble succeeding long term. There are a number of concerns there, but by far the biggest is TOs. In each game he's played, he has had the most TOs of any player. You can coach that away but one of two things will happen, his FGs will go up and his ASSTs will go down, or his ASSTs will go up and his FGs will go down. What you want, for a lot of reasons that most of you probably already know, is for the latter to happen. What seems to be happening is the former. There is a reason it is called a Point Guard. That needs to be fixed or other coaches will definitely take advantage of it when it counts. You say, "well no problem...when Stoudemire and Anthony get back the problem will ameliorate." It may. I don't know. I would have to revisit his stats at that time. If I had to bet, I would bet that it will get better. But other young PGs struggle with the same issue...to the detriment of their teams in my opinion. I guess what I am saying is that success in basketball, as measured in rings, requires stats optimized for balance and flexibility rather than strength. When Jason Williams finally got to Miami he was a more balanced PG. IIRC, during the 2006 finals he averaged 12 points and 7 ASSTs. Critically, at that point in his career TOs were under control. Jason Williams peaked at, somewhere around 3.5 a game. Jeremy Lin is averaging twice that at least. Not good. And consider, Jason Williams could make some of that up on the back end with steals. Not so much with Jeremy. So I can see why a lot of statisticians would look at Jeremy Lin and say,"...well with my personnel...I'll have to pass on this guy." Of course if we scour the web we will find one guy who rated him highly, that is the nature of the beast. But there are a lot of good reasons that a lot of good scouts did not rate him highly. And most strategists probably see a lot of those reasons every time he plays. All that said, Jason Williams, after initially playing a lot like Jeremy, achieved a REALLY good ASST/TO rating. If it wasn't THE highest...it was close. But again, that's the 12 points 7 ASSTs Jason Williams, which is what you want in a PG if you want to get to a ring.

jschmitz28 15y ago
In response to the turnovers, I want to mention that there are a couple reasons for that. The first is that he's playing PG and has to handle the ball a lot more than anyone else on the team right now. Combined with his minutes, that's generally going to give you more TO's just because of the amount of time with the ball and the probability of a player of his skill level losing it (although this point doesn't account for other PG's who average way fewer TO's). Second, he's just started to play a ridiculous amount of minutes over the past week and hasn't had enough time to refine himself yet. Did you watch the first couple weeks of games this season? Because of the lockout this year, there were almost no preseason games and it showed. Turnover rates were extremely high for pretty much every team, so I'm inclined to think that Lin can get his turnovers down throughout the rest of the season assuming they keep playing him. My last point is a pretty obvious one, but he's still young. A few more years of experience and I expect to see turnovers go down. I watched his 38 point game last night, and while he played pretty amazing, he did have moments where he looked confused and flustered when running the offense.

carguy1983 15y ago

HN-related factoid: Jeremy Lin was born in southern CA, grew up in Palo Alto and both of his parents are immigrant engineers.

noelwelsh 15y ago

I love Jeremy Lin as a player and I really hope he succeeds. However, it must be said: Four games does not a statistically significant sample make. Read the NBA Playbook breakdown of his game: http://nbaplaybook.com/2012/02/08/a-look-at-jeremy-lin/ http://nbaplaybook.com/2012/02/08/a-look-at-jeremy-lin/ In summary, he isn't good going left or shooting from distance. So far he hasn't played an elite defensive team. The true test will come if he can sustain his performance over the season and against good defence. Let's hope he does it!

steve8918 15y ago
So what if he hasn't played against an elite defensive team. That is irrelevant to determine whether or not he will succeed. How many players would do well against an elite defense team? Probably not a lot, otherwise they wouldn't be an elite defensive team. No one is saying that he's going to be another Stockton, Nash, Wade (although Magic Johnson did say that Lin reminded him of Stockton and Nash), and he doesn't need to be in order to succeed. If he can keep the caliber of his game up to NBA standards, he can accomplish what he wanted, which is to play in the NBA, and that's all that matters. His performance over the past 4 games is saying pretty strongly that he can play at this level. Remember, he just played against over 10% of the league already and has been the best player on the court. If the Knicks elite players can get their act together, then Lin only needs to contribute positively in order to maintain a strong career.
- noelwelsh 15y ago
  You make some good points. Lin has probably already done enough to have a decent NBA career and retire with millions in the bank. However the hype surrounding Lin is that's he more than that. The main point I wanted to make is that four games is not enough data to make that conclusion. He's certainly lucky to play for D'Antoni, who is just about the only coach in the NBA who'd let a point guard freelance like Lin has. He's also lucky that the Knicks' star players are out so he doesn't have the pressure to just pass them the rock, which wouldn't showcase his skills. It will be interesting to see how Lin plays with Amare and especially Carmelo. We know from Phoenix that Amare is perfectly happy running the pick-and-roll with a good point guard. 'Melo prefers to handle the ball more, so there could be conflict there.

ecounysis 15y ago

How many false positives has this statistician had over their career?

mathattack 15y ago

The original post suggests he will be a lottery pick, perhaps first overall. Whoops. The writer caught his being undervalued but overestimated the math skills of basketball GMs. It's hard to avoid the Linsanity now.

BeeLee 15y ago

Great find, GBond. I found it an interesting read. Thanks!

BeeLee 15y ago

Great find, GBond. I found it an interesting read. Thanks! I don't know how to do this, but can someone write a script and test it against the past 4-5 NBA drafts to see how accurately this guy's formula works? It would be really neat to see the results. Anyone up to test it???

achompas 15y ago

I'm learning/reviewing MCMC methods now for work and...how about a MCMC algorithm that takes in basketball box scores and attempts to generate estimates of each player's ability? You'd probably have to deal with too many parameters (one for each player in the league)...or maybe not? Pardon the vagueness, I'm only suggesting this as a theoretical exercise. EDIT: well, that didn't take long. http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~zhangk/2010%20Scoring%20and%20Shooting%20Abilities%20of%20NBA%20Players.pdf http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~zhangk/2010%20Scoring%20a...

stevengg 15y ago

here is a good article about how players leverage stats to force the other team into low percentage shots and plays http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/magazine/15Battier-t.html?pagewanted=all http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/magazine/15Battier-t.html?...