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He is the face of election prediction in America. All the other guys at NYT, WaPo, etc aren't as famous. Of course he's going to be the face you punch for them
by kelipso 4y ago
He is the face of election prediction in America. All the other guys at NYT, WaPo, etc aren't as famous. Of course he's going to be the face you punch for them not predicting the election remotely right. (And don't give me this shit about 75% or whatever odds he gave being the rightest or whatever weasel nonsense, it was still plenty wrong and he still want to lmao "spike the football" really? Get out of here.).
- BirdieNZ 4y agoHow is saying "there's a one in three chance that such-and-such an event occurs" classified as "plenty wrong" in your view, if the event occurs?
- dllthomas 4y agoIf there is a 2/3 chance of a thing, and you say there's a 2/3 chance of the thing, you're doing your job right even though you "got it wrong" in hindsight 1/3 of the time. If you want to assess how someone is doing at prediction, you need to look at a lot of predictions and if they're giving probability estimates you want to apply a proper scoring rule. If you're going to make grand pronouncements based on a single close race being labeled the wrong side of close, get out of here.