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> Millions of voters aren’t reading 538 True. But millions of them will hear a radio announcer, or TV person, or tiktok video or whatever else say something li
by PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago
> Millions of voters aren’t reading 538
True. But millions of them will hear a radio announcer, or TV person, or tiktok video or whatever else say something like "In the latest polling, <X> has pulled ahead of <Y> ..." where "the latest polls" will mean (among other things) 538.
I do believe that this has some effect (if small) on patterns of voting (particular by encouraging or discouraging turnout).
- parasubvert 4y agoGenerally speaking, you don’t hear this because 538 is not a poll, it’s a political analysis brand and competitor (ABC news). Most news orgs or journalists quote the polls themselves.
- dragonwriter 4y ago> where "the latest polls" will mean (among other things) 538. No, it won’t; 538 doesn’t produce polls.
- PaulDavisThe1st 4y agoI've heard numerous news organizations/corporations cite 538 as the source of their analysis.
- dllthomas 4y ago538 does produce analysis. They do not produce polls - they consume polls.
- PaulDavisThe1st 4y agoNone of which matters to people who hear "analysis of the electoral race" on some media.
- dllthomas 4y agoI don't think dragonwriter was weighing in on your broader point, but being a little pedantic (and a lot correct) about what work is done by what people in our electoral coverage.
- dougmwne 4y agoAnd that will happen no matter what. Polls and prognostications will always exist and probably have always existed back to the first tribal chieftain election. It’s just that instead of getting totally inaccurate predictions that only serve a narrative, for a little while a few of us knew how to get a more unbiased prediction. Now even fewer people will know anything aside from their favorite outlet’s media bubble.