Fivethirtyeight had Trump at a 28.6% chance to win on the night[1], the web page is still up. I recall that being higher than any other polls I saw at the time.

Fivethirtyeight had Trump at a 28.6% chance to win on the night[1], the web page is still up. I recall that being higher than any other polls I saw at the time. A 1 in 3.5 chance isn't that unlikely, it implies they're very close. [1] https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast