3 ms·

Why are we changing the goalposts here? Your comment was about how rare deaths were for COVID-19 for the cohort you selected. Now do deaths from vaccines for th

Why are we changing the goalposts here? Your comment was about how rare deaths were for COVID-19 for the cohort you selected. Now do deaths from vaccines for the same cohort. Trying to reframe this as a "we forced people to take something we didn't understand" is FUD.

rayiner 3y ago
> Your comment was about how rare deaths were for COVID-19 for the cohort you selected. Now do deaths from vaccines for the same cohort. The emphasized part is you moving the goalposts. If you want to assert that already low-risk individuals can further reduce their death rate using the vaccine (undoubtedly true), then it's entirely fair to ask whether doing so creates unknown, long-term risks. For your younger people--who are unlikely to die from either COVID or the vaccine--the long-tail risks of a brand new category of vaccine are meaningful. My kids shrugged off COVID (before the vaccine was available) in half a day. We gave them the vaccines anyway, because we're sheeple. Hopefully, these new mRNA vaccines behave just like traditional vaccines and don't create any additional long-term risks. But let's not pretend we have decades of experience with these vaccines to prove that fact.
- baseballdork 3y ago
  > The emphasized part is you moving the goalposts. If you want to assert that already low-risk individuals can further reduce their death rate using the vaccine (undoubtedly true), then it's entirely fair to ask whether doing so creates unknown, long-term risks. Hard disagree. Unknown, long-term risks apply equally to both. However, I'd agree to mutually change the goal posts. Do deaths and long term damage for both vaccines and COVID-19 in the cohort. > But let's not pretend we have decades of experience with these vaccines to prove that fact. We also don't have decades of experience with COVID-19...
  - rayiner 3y ago
    Except since the vaccines don’t prevent you from getting covid, the long term risks you’re comparing are: risks from covid versus risks from covid plus risks from the vaccine.
    - baseballdork 3y ago
      Citation needed.
      - runsWphotons 3y ago
        You need a citation for the claim the vaccines don't prevent covid or transmission of covid?
        baseballdork 3y ago
        Yes? Do you just accept blanket claims like that without thought?
- JamesBarney 3y ago
  It seems like your argument is [value of vaccine] = [reduction in death] - [unknown long term risks of vaccine] And if you're risk of death is low enough that swamps the third term. But I think you're modeling this incorrectly. It's actually [value of vaccine] = [reduction in death] - [unknown long term risks of vaccine] + [unknown long term risks of novel virus] And this case it almost always makes sense to take the vaccine.
  - rayiner 3y ago
    Your equation assumes the vaccine prevents you from getting covid, which it doesn’t. Many people I know got covid multiple times after being vaccinated. So the risk of long term effects from covid are baked in. On top of that, you add any additional risks from the vaccine.
    - JamesBarney 3y ago
      It assumes that the vaccine greatly reduces your risk of sequelae from Covid because the infection is much milder.
      - runsWphotons 3y ago
        The vaccines are certainly more harmful for certain groups, like young men and more likely to cause certain conditions (like retinal occlusion).
        baseballdork 3y ago
        Citation needed.

rayiner 3y ago

> Your comment was about how rare deaths were for COVID-19 for the cohort you selected. Now do deaths from vaccines for the same cohort. The emphasized part is you moving the goalposts. If you want to assert that already low-risk individuals can further reduce their death rate using the vaccine (undoubtedly true), then it's entirely fair to ask whether doing so creates unknown, long-term risks. For your younger people--who are unlikely to die from either COVID or the vaccine--the long-tail risks of a brand new category of vaccine are meaningful. My kids shrugged off COVID (before the vaccine was available) in half a day. We gave them the vaccines anyway, because we're sheeple. Hopefully, these new mRNA vaccines behave just like traditional vaccines and don't create any additional long-term risks. But let's not pretend we have decades of experience with these vaccines to prove that fact.

baseballdork 3y ago
> The emphasized part is you moving the goalposts. If you want to assert that already low-risk individuals can further reduce their death rate using the vaccine (undoubtedly true), then it's entirely fair to ask whether doing so creates unknown, long-term risks. Hard disagree. Unknown, long-term risks apply equally to both. However, I'd agree to mutually change the goal posts. Do deaths and long term damage for both vaccines and COVID-19 in the cohort. > But let's not pretend we have decades of experience with these vaccines to prove that fact. We also don't have decades of experience with COVID-19...
- rayiner 3y ago
  Except since the vaccines don’t prevent you from getting covid, the long term risks you’re comparing are: risks from covid versus risks from covid plus risks from the vaccine.
  - baseballdork 3y ago
    Citation needed.
    - runsWphotons 3y ago
      You need a citation for the claim the vaccines don't prevent covid or transmission of covid?
      - baseballdork 3y ago
        Yes? Do you just accept blanket claims like that without thought?
JamesBarney 3y ago
It seems like your argument is [value of vaccine] = [reduction in death] - [unknown long term risks of vaccine] And if you're risk of death is low enough that swamps the third term. But I think you're modeling this incorrectly. It's actually [value of vaccine] = [reduction in death] - [unknown long term risks of vaccine] + [unknown long term risks of novel virus] And this case it almost always makes sense to take the vaccine.
- rayiner 3y ago
  Your equation assumes the vaccine prevents you from getting covid, which it doesn’t. Many people I know got covid multiple times after being vaccinated. So the risk of long term effects from covid are baked in. On top of that, you add any additional risks from the vaccine.
  - JamesBarney 3y ago
    It assumes that the vaccine greatly reduces your risk of sequelae from Covid because the infection is much milder.
    - runsWphotons 3y ago
      The vaccines are certainly more harmful for certain groups, like young men and more likely to cause certain conditions (like retinal occlusion).
      - baseballdork 3y ago
        Citation needed.