4 ms·
What's happening now is an example of the system working, not broken. The comparisons are also made to 2008. Between that and the SnL crisis there are three imp
by jmyeet 4y ago
What's happening now is an example of the system working, not broken. The comparisons are also made to 2008. Between that and the SnL crisis there are three important differences:
1. Unlike 2008, we don't have a whole host of risky borrowers and poor debt;
2. Rates are still historically low (as another commenter mentioned); and
3. The banks being taken over by the FDIC are solvent. That is, their assets exceed their depositor funds, even if they have to realize losses on long-term bonds by selling them.
It's worth noting that accounting rules allow banks to keep bonds off the books and nominally kept at face valuew with the intention of holding them to maturity.
We've had bank runs on banks that largely catered to a single vertical (eg SVB, Singularity) and were relatively small. This made them vulnerable. On top of that, you had poor risk management by holding long-term bonds instead of short-term bonds.
Management chases short-term yield and if 10 year bonds are offering 1.75% (a couple of years ago) but 3 month bonds are only offering 1.69%, many banks will hold the long-term bonds instead, even though they open themselves up to rising interest rate risk. They are paying the price for now and depositors aren't left holding the bag. So the system is working.
- 0zemp2c 4y ago> 1. Unlike 2008, we don't have a whole host of risky borrowers and poor debt; huh? student, auto, and credit card debt are all through the roof auto loans are the new subprime
- bugglebeetle 4y agoAlso, commercial real estate. You can’t fill empty buildings with jeremiads in the Wall St. Journal demanding lazy, entitled workers get back to the office.