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Pedantically, there is a "limited" amount of these resources right? Like "if you drill deep enough there's always more" feels incompatible with the fact that th

by rtpg 3y ago

Pedantically, there is a "limited" amount of these resources right? Like "if you drill deep enough there's always more" feels incompatible with the fact that these resources are all downstream of actual geological effects. Or is it really actually "dig deep enough and we find stuff" has almost always been true, making this distinction without a difference? Just can't help thinking about lakes and acquifers drying up. Even in a more "renewable" scenario, at one point there is a bottom. I just wonder if we have a good feeling for where that is .

repiret 3y ago
Sure, for any sort of mineral or metal there's a hard limit to how much there is in the Earth's crust, and while the oil was created by a natural process, that process doesn't take place on a time frame that's useful to humans (and might not take place at all now that bacteria has evolved). We don't sit around fretting about the limited supply of palladium or something, because there's never been as much of it that was easy to extract as we wanted. We do worry about lithium, because right now it's economic to extract it in very large quantities and we know that won't last forever. But my point is that we won't transition from the current abundance to "every last atom of mineable lithium has been extracted and if you want more you have to dig up a landfill and pull it out of discarded CR2032 batteries" overnight. When we've dug up all the lithium available at the current price, there will still be plenty more at a slightly higher price, and when that's used up, there will be more at a price slightly higher still, and so on. Yeah, there's a limit, but long before we hit the limit, the gradual price increases will have push society to find a way to go on without copious amounts of newly mined lithium.
jcparkyn 3y ago
An analogy is "if you take half of what's left each day, you'll never run out".
saulpw 3y ago
It's not just economic cost, it's also energy cost (the EROI). It costs some % of a barrel of oil just to pump up a new barrel of oil. When that ratio is 100%, you can no longer pump oil for energy, though you might still pump it for the raw materials, or to convert a different source of energy into tasty gasoline. So there probably always be oil remaining in the ground that costs too much energy to extract.
- rtpg 3y ago
  In the “infinite energy” argument, there is some notion of “well I can use solar energy to get this oil, which has different characteristics, even if the energy is less overall”. Not all energy sources are fungible, right? But it’s a good point

by rtpg 3y ago

repiret 3y ago

Sure, for any sort of mineral or metal there's a hard limit to how much there is in the Earth's crust, and while the oil was created by a natural process, that process doesn't take place on a time frame that's useful to humans (and might not take place at all now that bacteria has evolved). We don't sit around fretting about the limited supply of palladium or something, because there's never been as much of it that was easy to extract as we wanted. We do worry about lithium, because right now it's economic to extract it in very large quantities and we know that won't last forever. But my point is that we won't transition from the current abundance to "every last atom of mineable lithium has been extracted and if you want more you have to dig up a landfill and pull it out of discarded CR2032 batteries" overnight. When we've dug up all the lithium available at the current price, there will still be plenty more at a slightly higher price, and when that's used up, there will be more at a price slightly higher still, and so on. Yeah, there's a limit, but long before we hit the limit, the gradual price increases will have push society to find a way to go on without copious amounts of newly mined lithium.

jcparkyn 3y ago

An analogy is "if you take half of what's left each day, you'll never run out".

saulpw 3y ago

It's not just economic cost, it's also energy cost (the EROI). It costs some % of a barrel of oil just to pump up a new barrel of oil. When that ratio is 100%, you can no longer pump oil for energy, though you might still pump it for the raw materials, or to convert a different source of energy into tasty gasoline. So there probably always be oil remaining in the ground that costs too much energy to extract.

rtpg 3y ago
In the “infinite energy” argument, there is some notion of “well I can use solar energy to get this oil, which has different characteristics, even if the energy is less overall”. Not all energy sources are fungible, right? But it’s a good point