5 ms·

Sudan’s Descent into Chaos

26 points by hackandthink 3y ago

notlukesky 3y ago
Interesting timeline with warnings of consequences if Sudan allowed the Russian military base: https://sudantribune.com/article264733/ https://sudantribune.com/article264733/ My guess is that there will be other places with eventful consequences like the Solomon Islands if they allow a Chinese military base.
EdwardDiego 3y ago
This expectation that the US (amongst others) will step in to fix this is weird. I'm not American, but the history of US-led interventions isn't great, and I think it's reasonable that the US doesn't really want to be involved in yet another 3rd world (in the original sense) country that's eating itself.
- dragonwriter 3y ago
  The piece isn’t calling for US intervention, though.
  - aikinai 3y ago
    The subtitle is “What Washington and Its Arab Partners Must Do to Stop the Shootout.”
    - dragonwriter 3y ago
      Yes, that’s the subtitle, and the discussion in the text, to the extent it addresses the subtitle at all (its actually a lot more about how the problem has been contributed to by the US and its Arab Partners than it is about the subtitle), what it suggests needs to be done isn’t, implicitly or explicitly, “conduct a US-led intervention”. You are aware that the US (alone and through partners) does thing around the world aside from direct armed intervention, so that a subtitle about what the US should do with regard to a situation does not, inherently, imply direct intervention.
gumby 3y ago
This article underplaces the resource extraction motivation that has pulled the country apart. Consider https://adamtooze.com/2023/04/18/chartbook-209-the-sudan-crisis-and-the-sahel-gold-rush/ https://adamtooze.com/2023/04/18/chartbook-209-the-sudan-cri...
- rektide 3y ago
  This was such a great piece on the Sudan gold rush. Thank you for finding it & resharing. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35663297 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35663297 (134 points, 7d ago, 113 comments)
_8j50 3y ago
Probably an unpopular opinion, but my view is that not a single country should interfere with this. Self-determination is a critical element of sovreignity. While all the concerns and empathy for the sudanese is something I agree with, it is the responsibility and burden of all sudanese adults to self-determine their fate and the fate of their children. Now, if some element of either side of the conflict allies itself with outside entities I have no problem with them receiving aide, whether that be military assistance ir something else. You cannot force peace. Fighters from both sides of the conflict made a choice to abandon peace. They must want it back if it is ever to come back to them. If any outside party decides to get involved for whatever reason, they better have a long term plan to colonize sudan. You must understand, soldiers need to eat, sleep, get medical care, fuel and parts for their weapons and vehicles,etc... this is how lasting peace is made, when those who crave violence get their fill at the hands of those who would give up their lives to gain peace.
- hackandthink 3y ago
  Alex de Waal argues for democratic and humanitarian support. He seems to be honest and I guess it should be the right thing to do. But I don't trust western meddling and motivations anymore. What is the real objective? Do they know what they are doing? Maybe Sudan is doomed anyway but did US politcs any good: April 2019: democratic revolution (ousting of al-Bashir) "Although Washington and its European allies have expressed admiration for Sudan’s democrats, their support has been hollow." The quad (United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, Washington and Riyadh ) is not really interested in democracy. 2021 joint SUF/RSF coup April 2023 SUF/RSF fighting "By this point, it was far too late for the mediators—let alone outside powers like the United States that had failed to offer high-level engagement since the 2021 coup—to do anything to stop them" "The hope is that the Saudis can convince Cairo and Abu Dhabi not to fund or arm their respective favorites, and the United States can champion the democratic movement that it has so shamefully betrayed"
  - linhns 3y ago
    I think they already knew already Sudan will be a failed state, just not this fast.

26 points by hackandthink 3y ago

Interesting timeline with warnings of consequences if Sudan allowed the Russian military base: https://sudantribune.com/article264733/ https://sudantribune.com/article264733/ My guess is that there will be other places with eventful consequences like the Solomon Islands if they allow a Chinese military base.

EdwardDiego 3y ago

This expectation that the US (amongst others) will step in to fix this is weird. I'm not American, but the history of US-led interventions isn't great, and I think it's reasonable that the US doesn't really want to be involved in yet another 3rd world (in the original sense) country that's eating itself.

dragonwriter 3y ago
The piece isn’t calling for US intervention, though.
- aikinai 3y ago
  The subtitle is “What Washington and Its Arab Partners Must Do to Stop the Shootout.”
  - dragonwriter 3y ago
    Yes, that’s the subtitle, and the discussion in the text, to the extent it addresses the subtitle at all (its actually a lot more about how the problem has been contributed to by the US and its Arab Partners than it is about the subtitle), what it suggests needs to be done isn’t, implicitly or explicitly, “conduct a US-led intervention”. You are aware that the US (alone and through partners) does thing around the world aside from direct armed intervention, so that a subtitle about what the US should do with regard to a situation does not, inherently, imply direct intervention.

gumby 3y ago

This article underplaces the resource extraction motivation that has pulled the country apart. Consider https://adamtooze.com/2023/04/18/chartbook-209-the-sudan-crisis-and-the-sahel-gold-rush/ https://adamtooze.com/2023/04/18/chartbook-209-the-sudan-cri...

rektide 3y ago
This was such a great piece on the Sudan gold rush. Thank you for finding it & resharing. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35663297 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35663297 (134 points, 7d ago, 113 comments)

_8j50 3y ago

Probably an unpopular opinion, but my view is that not a single country should interfere with this. Self-determination is a critical element of sovreignity. While all the concerns and empathy for the sudanese is something I agree with, it is the responsibility and burden of all sudanese adults to self-determine their fate and the fate of their children. Now, if some element of either side of the conflict allies itself with outside entities I have no problem with them receiving aide, whether that be military assistance ir something else. You cannot force peace. Fighters from both sides of the conflict made a choice to abandon peace. They must want it back if it is ever to come back to them. If any outside party decides to get involved for whatever reason, they better have a long term plan to colonize sudan. You must understand, soldiers need to eat, sleep, get medical care, fuel and parts for their weapons and vehicles,etc... this is how lasting peace is made, when those who crave violence get their fill at the hands of those who would give up their lives to gain peace.

hackandthink 3y ago
Alex de Waal argues for democratic and humanitarian support. He seems to be honest and I guess it should be the right thing to do. But I don't trust western meddling and motivations anymore. What is the real objective? Do they know what they are doing? Maybe Sudan is doomed anyway but did US politcs any good: April 2019: democratic revolution (ousting of al-Bashir) "Although Washington and its European allies have expressed admiration for Sudan’s democrats, their support has been hollow." The quad (United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, Washington and Riyadh ) is not really interested in democracy. 2021 joint SUF/RSF coup April 2023 SUF/RSF fighting "By this point, it was far too late for the mediators—let alone outside powers like the United States that had failed to offer high-level engagement since the 2021 coup—to do anything to stop them" "The hope is that the Saudis can convince Cairo and Abu Dhabi not to fund or arm their respective favorites, and the United States can champion the democratic movement that it has so shamefully betrayed"
- linhns 3y ago
  I think they already knew already Sudan will be a failed state, just not this fast.