These facts are alarming, but don’t we need to have some sense of the base rates for these events to determine how unusual their confluence is? For example, ho

These facts are alarming, but don’t we need to have some sense of the base rates for these events to determine how unusual their confluence is? For example, how often are cell mates transferred? How common is it for a prisoner to go a night without a cell mate? How often do guards actually do mandated checks (versus what they say since apparently they falsify records at least sometimes)? I can imagine this being a murder, but I can also imagine an environment where “mandated” checks are just a box on a form that gets checked with no connection to reality. One base rate we might have is the number of suicides that happen at this facility (apparently almost none) which does lend some credence to the murder theory. I feel the facts you highlight would be more convincing if there was public information we could use to put them in context (and hey maybe there, if someone knows about it, please share).