4 ms·

Sigh. Yes, perhaps you are accurate that it’s not always 2x but your 10x things is pretty childish. So what if it’s not 2x but more? Why are people like you so

by zpeti 3y ago

Sigh. Yes, perhaps you are accurate that it’s not always 2x but your 10x things is pretty childish. So what if it’s not 2x but more? Why are people like you so resentful of someone building something cool you literally can’t wait to point out any flaws. It’s sad tbh.

dmreedy 3y ago
Because unrealistic representation of timelines can sound like a non-technical manager eager to claim credit for arduous research and mechanical work they don't seem to understand enough to give accurate forecasts for, just as much it might sound like an excited geek who can't wait for a cool thing. Maybe it sounds like aggressive and optimistic goals. Maybe it sounds like someone who doesn't understand that nine women can't give birth to a child in one month, and cracks the whip like they could if they tried hard enough.
AlexandrB 3y ago
Have you seen the footage of the debris super heavy launched into the ocean/surrounding wilderness? I'm fine with "someone building something cool", I'm sick and tired of those same individuals pushing the negative externalities on the rest of society through lack of investment/planning. If I was your neighbor and build a potato gun, but the potatoes kept ending up in your yard, would you be happy for me or ticked off?
- George83728 3y ago
  Some dust dropped on the wilderness and ocean is a nonissue, it's a weak sneeze compared to what the mining and construction industries do every day without fanfare. The issue is the dust dropped on the people in that area.
- zpeti 3y ago
  Hardly any one lives there, and the people who get compensated. Wildlife is not going to have major, and I say major issues from this. You sound like the environmentalists you don’t want to build solar parks in the Sahara because it gets in the way of a few goats. Take a step back. Perspective.
- v0idzer0 3y ago
  What else can we whine about? Did the rocket maybe hit an insect on its way up?
threeseed 3y ago
Cybertruck, Robotaxi, FSD ? We are still waiting for all three many years after Musk promised they were coming soon.
- sidibe 3y ago
  Roadster, Dojo (this one I remember actually believing he sounded so sure it was a done deal years ago), Semi. 10x is generous given his history , can't believe how many people still find him credible
  - zpeti 3y ago
    Yet he’s still beating blue origin, rocket labs, every major car company trying to create electric cars, and a charging network. Promising 10 awesome things and delivering 2 still gives you more awesome things than you started with. At best you are a grumpy old man who isn’t happy with anything, at worst a resentful anti success advocate. What have you created in the last 10 years?
    - sidibe 3y ago
      I like seeing people be successful. With Elon there is always too much celebrating of announcements vs celebrating successes. He's done well selling EVs and Falcon 9 is great. Mostly he lies though so that's what I assume with any forward looking statements
      - v0idzer0 3y ago
        It’s not lying. It’s being wrong in the timeline for deeply complex technical innovations. This is like me calling my engineers liars every time a task takes longer than expected (which is nearly every time). This whole “predict the exact day humanity will solve its most ambitious technical challenges like self driving cars or you’re a liar” attitude is incredibly toxic
        sidibe 3y ago
HybridCurve 3y ago
https://freakonomics.com/podcast/failure-is-your-friend-2/ https://freakonomics.com/podcast/failure-is-your-friend-2/ Space shuttle challenger disaster discussed at 17:35. Nobody is resenting anything cool, they are pointing out that when it comes to packing 4kt worth of explosives into a vehicle and flinging into the air you better take your time to get it right. This is a private company which is not directly accountable to the government as NASA would be. There won't be a congressional committee holding them to account or removing the people in charge if they fuck up. Sure they might get a good scolding from congress if they make mistakes, but they'll get to pay their way through the courts to shirk accountability. The fact that the FTS failed on top of all the other problems is cause enough for alarm and indicative that they are not being thorough enough. It was sloppy work, and when Elon opens his mouth about unrealistic timelines he is openly stating that he will continue to apply pressure on the team to rush things and cut corners for results. There is nothing cool about running an aerospace program like that.
- zpeti 3y ago
  Your point is a copy paste of every negative failed spacex launch reaction. Yet somehow they’re still the most successful rocket creating entity ever, and are close to creating a launch system that will reduce launch costs by 100x. So what exactly is not working here, and why are YOU so upset about it?
- inglor_cz 3y ago
  Falcon 9 Block 5 is literally the most reliable rocket of humanity as of today (the longest streak of successful launches ever), and on the top of it, partially reusable and fairly cheap to launch. It took several explosions (that you seem to consider "sloppy") to get there, but the result exceeds anything that competition came up with. There is an adage that people who love sausages shouldn't visit the meat plants where these are made. This is harder to do with the development process that SpaceX uses, given that it is all over the news and you can't easily escape the sight. But please do not confuse the development process with the end product. As of now, Starship is in the not-even-beta phase. Its current problems have no relation to how the mature rocket will perform. Note that, unlike other vendors, SpaceX didn't dare to launch human crew with their Falcon 9 until they were very sure that the rocket performs well and has a very good launch record. Compare this attitude to many other human-rated vehicles that actually killed astronauts. Nothing sloppy or rushed there.
Zigurd 3y ago
X10 would be a generous assessment of when FSD will fully SD.

by zpeti 3y ago

dmreedy 3y ago

Because unrealistic representation of timelines can sound like a non-technical manager eager to claim credit for arduous research and mechanical work they don't seem to understand enough to give accurate forecasts for, just as much it might sound like an excited geek who can't wait for a cool thing. Maybe it sounds like aggressive and optimistic goals. Maybe it sounds like someone who doesn't understand that nine women can't give birth to a child in one month, and cracks the whip like they could if they tried hard enough.

AlexandrB 3y ago

Have you seen the footage of the debris super heavy launched into the ocean/surrounding wilderness? I'm fine with "someone building something cool", I'm sick and tired of those same individuals pushing the negative externalities on the rest of society through lack of investment/planning. If I was your neighbor and build a potato gun, but the potatoes kept ending up in your yard, would you be happy for me or ticked off?

George83728 3y ago
Some dust dropped on the wilderness and ocean is a nonissue, it's a weak sneeze compared to what the mining and construction industries do every day without fanfare. The issue is the dust dropped on the people in that area.
zpeti 3y ago
Hardly any one lives there, and the people who get compensated. Wildlife is not going to have major, and I say major issues from this. You sound like the environmentalists you don’t want to build solar parks in the Sahara because it gets in the way of a few goats. Take a step back. Perspective.
v0idzer0 3y ago
What else can we whine about? Did the rocket maybe hit an insect on its way up?

threeseed 3y ago

Cybertruck, Robotaxi, FSD ? We are still waiting for all three many years after Musk promised they were coming soon.

sidibe 3y ago
Roadster, Dojo (this one I remember actually believing he sounded so sure it was a done deal years ago), Semi. 10x is generous given his history , can't believe how many people still find him credible
- zpeti 3y ago
  Yet he’s still beating blue origin, rocket labs, every major car company trying to create electric cars, and a charging network. Promising 10 awesome things and delivering 2 still gives you more awesome things than you started with. At best you are a grumpy old man who isn’t happy with anything, at worst a resentful anti success advocate. What have you created in the last 10 years?
  - sidibe 3y ago
    I like seeing people be successful. With Elon there is always too much celebrating of announcements vs celebrating successes. He's done well selling EVs and Falcon 9 is great. Mostly he lies though so that's what I assume with any forward looking statements
    - v0idzer0 3y ago
      It’s not lying. It’s being wrong in the timeline for deeply complex technical innovations. This is like me calling my engineers liars every time a task takes longer than expected (which is nearly every time). This whole “predict the exact day humanity will solve its most ambitious technical challenges like self driving cars or you’re a liar” attitude is incredibly toxic
      - sidibe 3y ago

HybridCurve 3y ago

https://freakonomics.com/podcast/failure-is-your-friend-2/ https://freakonomics.com/podcast/failure-is-your-friend-2/ Space shuttle challenger disaster discussed at 17:35. Nobody is resenting anything cool, they are pointing out that when it comes to packing 4kt worth of explosives into a vehicle and flinging into the air you better take your time to get it right. This is a private company which is not directly accountable to the government as NASA would be. There won't be a congressional committee holding them to account or removing the people in charge if they fuck up. Sure they might get a good scolding from congress if they make mistakes, but they'll get to pay their way through the courts to shirk accountability. The fact that the FTS failed on top of all the other problems is cause enough for alarm and indicative that they are not being thorough enough. It was sloppy work, and when Elon opens his mouth about unrealistic timelines he is openly stating that he will continue to apply pressure on the team to rush things and cut corners for results. There is nothing cool about running an aerospace program like that.

zpeti 3y ago
Your point is a copy paste of every negative failed spacex launch reaction. Yet somehow they’re still the most successful rocket creating entity ever, and are close to creating a launch system that will reduce launch costs by 100x. So what exactly is not working here, and why are YOU so upset about it?
inglor_cz 3y ago
Falcon 9 Block 5 is literally the most reliable rocket of humanity as of today (the longest streak of successful launches ever), and on the top of it, partially reusable and fairly cheap to launch. It took several explosions (that you seem to consider "sloppy") to get there, but the result exceeds anything that competition came up with. There is an adage that people who love sausages shouldn't visit the meat plants where these are made. This is harder to do with the development process that SpaceX uses, given that it is all over the news and you can't easily escape the sight. But please do not confuse the development process with the end product. As of now, Starship is in the not-even-beta phase. Its current problems have no relation to how the mature rocket will perform. Note that, unlike other vendors, SpaceX didn't dare to launch human crew with their Falcon 9 until they were very sure that the rocket performs well and has a very good launch record. Compare this attitude to many other human-rated vehicles that actually killed astronauts. Nothing sloppy or rushed there.

Zigurd 3y ago

X10 would be a generous assessment of when FSD will fully SD.