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Does anyone have any insight into when we're going to see some movements in lithium battery prices per cell? I've seen them stuck at $1-3/cell for what feels l

by lmpdev 3y ago

Does anyone have any insight into when we're going to see some movements in lithium battery prices per cell? I've seen them stuck at $1-3/cell for what feels like two years

jpgvm 3y ago
Probably not until significantly more capacity is added. Right now all the big battery suppliers (CATL, CALB, EVE, LG Chem, Panasonic) are all at capacity meaning they have no incentive to lower prices. If new capacity comes online and it's not greeted by increased demand (unlikely) then prices could fall. Wouldn't hold my breath though, the targets China has for EVs is going to provide strong support for demand even if the rest of the world goes into recession.
- tuatoru 3y ago
  In 2022-23 several hundred billion USD of investment in new battery production capacity in the USA and Europe was announced in multiple announcements. (Source: cleantechnica, or batteriesnews, or energy-storage.news, or maybe industry weekly; I'll try to find it again. In the mean time, there's this[1]. Edit: and this: battery-news.de[2].) Much of that should come online in 2025 - 28, if not canceled first. Edit 2: there are several steps in the production chain beyond mining and initial refining. There is material production for anodes, cathodes, electrolytes, separators, and lithium; there is cell assembly, there is pack assembly, and there is production of electronics associated with cells and packs (charge controllers, pack management). Each of these has its own issues. It's not as "simple" as refining oil. 1. Chart 1: Lithium-Ion Battery Capacity Expected to Surge, FRB Dallas: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/1011 https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/1011 2. https://battery-news.de/index.php/2022/01/21/battery-projects-in-north-america-status-january-2022/ https://battery-news.de/index.php/2022/01/21/battery-project...

by lmpdev 3y ago

Does anyone have any insight into when we're going to see some movements in lithium battery prices per cell? I've seen them stuck at $1-3/cell for what feels like two years

jpgvm 3y ago

Probably not until significantly more capacity is added. Right now all the big battery suppliers (CATL, CALB, EVE, LG Chem, Panasonic) are all at capacity meaning they have no incentive to lower prices. If new capacity comes online and it's not greeted by increased demand (unlikely) then prices could fall. Wouldn't hold my breath though, the targets China has for EVs is going to provide strong support for demand even if the rest of the world goes into recession.

tuatoru 3y ago
In 2022-23 several hundred billion USD of investment in new battery production capacity in the USA and Europe was announced in multiple announcements. (Source: cleantechnica, or batteriesnews, or energy-storage.news, or maybe industry weekly; I'll try to find it again. In the mean time, there's this[1]. Edit: and this: battery-news.de[2].) Much of that should come online in 2025 - 28, if not canceled first. Edit 2: there are several steps in the production chain beyond mining and initial refining. There is material production for anodes, cathodes, electrolytes, separators, and lithium; there is cell assembly, there is pack assembly, and there is production of electronics associated with cells and packs (charge controllers, pack management). Each of these has its own issues. It's not as "simple" as refining oil. 1. Chart 1: Lithium-Ion Battery Capacity Expected to Surge, FRB Dallas: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/1011 https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/1011 2. https://battery-news.de/index.php/2022/01/21/battery-projects-in-north-america-status-january-2022/ https://battery-news.de/index.php/2022/01/21/battery-project...