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They will never launch within 8 weeks. That time frame is insane and not enough to repair the damage at the launch site. Also I don't expect a FAA to give an o

They will never launch within 8 weeks. That time frame is insane and not enough to repair the damage at the launch site. Also I don't expect a FAA to give an ok until SpaceX has cleaned up the surrounding area.

krisoft 4y ago
> They will never launch within 8 weeks. And the quotes don’t say that they will. In fact they imply that they won’t.
samwillis 4y ago
Yes, this is "Elon time", so x2. Four months? If the piles under the launch mount aren't damaged (which would surprise me!), it's "just" filling in the hole, pour some concrete and cover with the new water cooled steel plate. Then replace any other stage zero kit that got damaged (the tall tanks particularly) I think he's probably right the longest thing to solve though is flight qualification with the FAA.
- rhaway84773 4y ago
  x2? x10 has historically been more accurate. I also love how Elonauts have decided that FAA qualification is a mere trivial formality as opposed to a necessary check on a founder deciding to go ahead with a premature launch because he wants to talk about it on 4/20 for example. The fact that the FAA check will be the longest is no defense. It’s a reflection of the fact that the FAA gave him an easy way out and all the critics of the FAA’s decision (including flagged stories on HN) turned out to be absolutely right.
  - zpeti 4y ago
    Sigh. Yes, perhaps you are accurate that it’s not always 2x but your 10x things is pretty childish. So what if it’s not 2x but more? Why are people like you so resentful of someone building something cool you literally can’t wait to point out any flaws. It’s sad tbh.
    - dmreedy 4y ago
      Because unrealistic representation of timelines can sound like a non-technical manager eager to claim credit for arduous research and mechanical work they don't seem to understand enough to give accurate forecasts for, just as much it might sound like an excited geek who can't wait for a cool thing. Maybe it sounds like aggressive and optimistic goals. Maybe it sounds like someone who doesn't understand that nine women can't give birth to a child in one month, and cracks the whip like they could if they tried hard enough.
    - AlexandrB 4y ago
      Have you seen the footage of the debris super heavy launched into the ocean/surrounding wilderness? I'm fine with "someone building something cool", I'm sick and tired of those same individuals pushing the negative externalities on the rest of society through lack of investment/planning. If I was your neighbor and build a potato gun, but the potatoes kept ending up in your yard, would you be happy for me or ticked off?
      - George83728 4y ago
        Some dust dropped on the wilderness and ocean is a nonissue, it's a weak sneeze compared to what the mining and construction industries do every day without fanfare. The issue is the dust dropped on the people in that area.
      - zpeti 4y ago
        Hardly any one lives there, and the people who get compensated. Wildlife is not going to have major, and I say major issues from this. You sound like the environmentalists you don’t want to build solar parks in the Sahara because it gets in the way of a few goats. Take a step back. Perspective.
      - v0idzer0 4y ago
        What else can we whine about? Did the rocket maybe hit an insect on its way up?
    - threeseed 4y ago
      Cybertruck, Robotaxi, FSD ? We are still waiting for all three many years after Musk promised they were coming soon.
  - spikels 4y ago
    He predicted it would launch 4/20 and it launched 4/20. So current factor is 1x.
- sschueller 4y ago
  How do you water cool a steel plate under a rocket without the coolant instantly vaporizing and blowing up the plate?
  - lostlogin 4y ago
    They’ll need pumps bigger than the rocket’s fuel pumps.
    - George83728 4y ago
      Nah, just some water towers. You can fill the water towers slowly using small pumps, then drain them quick using gravity.
  - krisoft 4y ago
    > instantly vaporizing and blowing up the plate It sounds like you are thinking about the water coolant being in or behind the steel plate. But if you pump water on top of the steel plate there it can instantly vaporize without blowing up anything. If you have sufficient flow then that can keep the steel plate from melting.
  - apendleton 4y ago
    In the Spaces thing, he described it as being like an upside-down shower head, and to expect lots of steam billowing out during launch instead of dust, so I don't think it's a closed system.
    - TheSpiceIsLife 4y ago
      NASA Kennedy launchpad deluged test https://youtu.be/LNkmwrTjKuo https://youtu.be/LNkmwrTjKuo
      - George83728 4y ago
        That flow is even bigger than it looks, seriously impressive. > The IOP/SS peak flow rate is 1.1 million gallons per minute, high enough to empty roughly two Olympic-size swimming pools in one minute. https://www.nasa.gov/content/launch-pad-39b https://www.nasa.gov/content/launch-pad-39b
- mcbain 4y ago
  The rule of thumb is that it takes 4 weeks for a concrete driveway to fully cure. I admit I've never built a launchpad for the world's biggest rocket, but I'd wave my hands to say it might take a bit longer for that concrete, and it won't get poured immediately.
phire 4y ago
Also, it's not enough to simply repair the damage. They need do proper failure analysis and engineer a solution so this damage won't happen next time, 6-8 weeks seems way too short. Elon is suggesting just slapping down a shitload of steal, but I really doubt that will meet standards.
- sschueller 4y ago
  I don't understand why Elon insists on re-inventing the wheel when we know how to deal with rockets this size. The Saturn V was similar in size and power, the launch pad at Cape Canaveral is still standing, just build a copy.
  - jorlow 4y ago
    Starship is all about finding ways to whittle down margins from the status quo
  - cschmatzler 4y ago
    Super Heavy has more than double the thrust of Saturn V, how is that similar?
  - zpeti 4y ago
    I mean challenging the “well known” engineering orthodoxies like rockets landing being almost impossible and not worth doing seem to have worked out ok for him? I love it when people take one small issue and point out how stupid he’s being, yet ignore how by challenging every point of engineering on rockets he’s almost at the point of making a mars transportation system possible.
    - sschueller 4y ago
      Rockets landing was never considered impossible, NASA even built and tested several such vehicles long ago. What was determined is that is is not economically viable which even SpaceX has started to realize on some launches where they ditch the landing in order to be able to carry more payload. The launch pad at Cape Canaveral may not be exactly what Starship needs but it would be a good start. Like flame trenches and placing the fuel storage tanks far enough away from the launch pad.
detrites 4y ago
Doesn't the specific "pad standpoint," qualifier at the beginning of the statement mean to make clear that the pad will be ready in 6-8 weeks, not the rocket? Otherwise, why prefix with it?
v0idzer0 4y ago
Who said they’d launch in 8 weeks? He only said the pad would be repaired in 8 weeks

krisoft 4y ago

> They will never launch within 8 weeks. And the quotes don’t say that they will. In fact they imply that they won’t.

samwillis 4y ago

Yes, this is "Elon time", so x2. Four months? If the piles under the launch mount aren't damaged (which would surprise me!), it's "just" filling in the hole, pour some concrete and cover with the new water cooled steel plate. Then replace any other stage zero kit that got damaged (the tall tanks particularly) I think he's probably right the longest thing to solve though is flight qualification with the FAA.

rhaway84773 4y ago
x2? x10 has historically been more accurate. I also love how Elonauts have decided that FAA qualification is a mere trivial formality as opposed to a necessary check on a founder deciding to go ahead with a premature launch because he wants to talk about it on 4/20 for example. The fact that the FAA check will be the longest is no defense. It’s a reflection of the fact that the FAA gave him an easy way out and all the critics of the FAA’s decision (including flagged stories on HN) turned out to be absolutely right.
- zpeti 4y ago
  Sigh. Yes, perhaps you are accurate that it’s not always 2x but your 10x things is pretty childish. So what if it’s not 2x but more? Why are people like you so resentful of someone building something cool you literally can’t wait to point out any flaws. It’s sad tbh.
  - dmreedy 4y ago
    Because unrealistic representation of timelines can sound like a non-technical manager eager to claim credit for arduous research and mechanical work they don't seem to understand enough to give accurate forecasts for, just as much it might sound like an excited geek who can't wait for a cool thing. Maybe it sounds like aggressive and optimistic goals. Maybe it sounds like someone who doesn't understand that nine women can't give birth to a child in one month, and cracks the whip like they could if they tried hard enough.
  - AlexandrB 4y ago
    Have you seen the footage of the debris super heavy launched into the ocean/surrounding wilderness? I'm fine with "someone building something cool", I'm sick and tired of those same individuals pushing the negative externalities on the rest of society through lack of investment/planning. If I was your neighbor and build a potato gun, but the potatoes kept ending up in your yard, would you be happy for me or ticked off?
    - George83728 4y ago
      Some dust dropped on the wilderness and ocean is a nonissue, it's a weak sneeze compared to what the mining and construction industries do every day without fanfare. The issue is the dust dropped on the people in that area.
    - zpeti 4y ago
      Hardly any one lives there, and the people who get compensated. Wildlife is not going to have major, and I say major issues from this. You sound like the environmentalists you don’t want to build solar parks in the Sahara because it gets in the way of a few goats. Take a step back. Perspective.
    - v0idzer0 4y ago
      What else can we whine about? Did the rocket maybe hit an insect on its way up?
  - threeseed 4y ago
    Cybertruck, Robotaxi, FSD ? We are still waiting for all three many years after Musk promised they were coming soon.
- spikels 4y ago
  He predicted it would launch 4/20 and it launched 4/20. So current factor is 1x.
sschueller 4y ago
How do you water cool a steel plate under a rocket without the coolant instantly vaporizing and blowing up the plate?
- lostlogin 4y ago
  They’ll need pumps bigger than the rocket’s fuel pumps.
  - George83728 4y ago
    Nah, just some water towers. You can fill the water towers slowly using small pumps, then drain them quick using gravity.
- krisoft 4y ago
  > instantly vaporizing and blowing up the plate It sounds like you are thinking about the water coolant being in or behind the steel plate. But if you pump water on top of the steel plate there it can instantly vaporize without blowing up anything. If you have sufficient flow then that can keep the steel plate from melting.
- apendleton 4y ago
  In the Spaces thing, he described it as being like an upside-down shower head, and to expect lots of steam billowing out during launch instead of dust, so I don't think it's a closed system.
  - TheSpiceIsLife 4y ago
    NASA Kennedy launchpad deluged test https://youtu.be/LNkmwrTjKuo https://youtu.be/LNkmwrTjKuo
    - George83728 4y ago
      That flow is even bigger than it looks, seriously impressive. > The IOP/SS peak flow rate is 1.1 million gallons per minute, high enough to empty roughly two Olympic-size swimming pools in one minute. https://www.nasa.gov/content/launch-pad-39b https://www.nasa.gov/content/launch-pad-39b
mcbain 4y ago
The rule of thumb is that it takes 4 weeks for a concrete driveway to fully cure. I admit I've never built a launchpad for the world's biggest rocket, but I'd wave my hands to say it might take a bit longer for that concrete, and it won't get poured immediately.

phire 4y ago

Also, it's not enough to simply repair the damage. They need do proper failure analysis and engineer a solution so this damage won't happen next time, 6-8 weeks seems way too short. Elon is suggesting just slapping down a shitload of steal, but I really doubt that will meet standards.

sschueller 4y ago
I don't understand why Elon insists on re-inventing the wheel when we know how to deal with rockets this size. The Saturn V was similar in size and power, the launch pad at Cape Canaveral is still standing, just build a copy.
- jorlow 4y ago
  Starship is all about finding ways to whittle down margins from the status quo
- cschmatzler 4y ago
  Super Heavy has more than double the thrust of Saturn V, how is that similar?
- zpeti 4y ago
  I mean challenging the “well known” engineering orthodoxies like rockets landing being almost impossible and not worth doing seem to have worked out ok for him? I love it when people take one small issue and point out how stupid he’s being, yet ignore how by challenging every point of engineering on rockets he’s almost at the point of making a mars transportation system possible.
  - sschueller 4y ago
    Rockets landing was never considered impossible, NASA even built and tested several such vehicles long ago. What was determined is that is is not economically viable which even SpaceX has started to realize on some launches where they ditch the landing in order to be able to carry more payload. The launch pad at Cape Canaveral may not be exactly what Starship needs but it would be a good start. Like flame trenches and placing the fuel storage tanks far enough away from the launch pad.

detrites 4y ago

Doesn't the specific "pad standpoint," qualifier at the beginning of the statement mean to make clear that the pad will be ready in 6-8 weeks, not the rocket? Otherwise, why prefix with it?

v0idzer0 4y ago

Who said they’d launch in 8 weeks? He only said the pad would be repaired in 8 weeks