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First of all, AI doesn't just write text. It (Midjourney v5) can generate realistic images that humans can’t tell if they are really not not. They can also gene

First of all, AI doesn't just write text. It (Midjourney v5) can generate realistic images that humans can’t tell if they are really not not. They can also generate music and that’s so good that shakes the entire music industry (https://techcrunch.com/2023/04/26/grimes-ai-generated-drake-music-legal-issues/ https://techcrunch.com/2023/04/26/grimes-ai-generated-drake-...). It can also generate the entire courses and even be your private tutor. All of this is happening. Please note that GPT-4 is not just a bot that writes text. It’s a reasoning machine. It has many emergent abilities. If you read the paper “Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4”, you will know it’s a baby AGI. (https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.12712 https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.12712) The article is not saying GPT-4 will replace human jobs but GPT-7 might. GPT-1 was released less than 5 years ago and look at how much progress we have made during this time. AI replacing most humans’ jobs is not fictional, the progress of AI is real and very happening very quickly.

smoldesu 4y ago
GPT-7 will not replace all human jobs, though. Your original assertion is wrong. People will adapt, same as all the luddites did after denouncing the cotton gin. The progress of tech stops for no man, and assuming that "every job" will be replaced by AI is flat-out wrong. I will bet any amount of money over any term of time within my lifetime that every human job will not be taken by AI. As long as human society exists, we will establish labor classes and divide duties accordingly. You could argue that AI threatens society, but... how? It's done nothing thus far, fearmongering "alignment" issues signal a non-technical interest in problem solving. Unless you have a direct concern here, it sorta feels like you're bracing for Y2k24 here.
- hammyhavoc 4y ago
  It's the same pearl-clutching as what happened over crypto. People who don't know any better get swept up in the hype and start jumping to conclusions that aren't supported by the evidence.
  - codermind 4y ago
    First of all, talking about AI researching experience, I am an AI research who's in the field for over 10 years. Second, this is not the conclusion that's reached by me. There is a survey where 30% of AI researchers think it's likely that AI may be a threat to humans if we don't align it well. Just give you another example. "it is "not inconceivable" that AI may develop to the point where it poses a threat to humanity" There are many other high profile researchers are voicing similar ideas.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - hammyhavoc 4y ago
      Where can I read some of your research of the past decade?
      - smoldesu 4y ago
        Substack, apparently :P
        hammyhavoc 4y ago
        You would have thought a self-proclaimed researcher would cite plenty of references in what they publish. Not one in what I looked at. Pretty shocking even by blogging standards, let alone scientific standards.
    - codermind 3y ago
      This substack is my low profile place so I am not planning to reveal my identity here. And what I said shouldn't be relevant to who I am. I don't think you should judge the content by who said it. You should judge it by if it makes sense :)
    - codermind 3y ago
      And you seem to get distracted by if AGI will happen soon. My main point of the article is if AGI happens, it won't be just like chess bots. I didn't focus on if it will happen soon. But yes, I think it might happen in 50 years. And I might write another article about it!
hammyhavoc 4y ago
>you will know it’s a baby AGI The article states "Given the breadth and depth of GPT-4's capabilities, we believe that it could reasonably be viewed as an early (yet still incomplete) version of an artificial general intelligence (AGI) system". "believe" is doing a lot of heavy-lifting here, and you're jumping the gun entirely and calling it an AGI, when that's not what's being said. It's a reach. It also says this: "and we discuss the challenges ahead for advancing towards deeper and more comprehensive versions of AGI, including the possible need for pursuing a new paradigm that moves beyond next-word prediction" So, it even states that LLMs are not what's going to create an AGI.
- ben_w 4y ago
  As a linguistic relativist, I believe the meaning of words comes from usage rather than definitions; unfortunately, it is clear to me that there is no common definition of what AGI actually means, as it varies from "good at many things" to "superhuman at everything". So, what's the definition you're using when you say it isn't one?
  - hammyhavoc 4y ago
    It's with the context of OpenAI's blog post in mind and the usage of their word "AGI" stoking the general public's imagination. https://futurism.com/experts-slam-openais-meaningless-new-promises-about-agi https://futurism.com/experts-slam-openais-meaningless-new-pr... The inference being that the use of the term in the research paper is thus nonsensical, and OpenAI's claims within their blog post are outrageous.
IAmGraydon 3y ago
>They can also generate music and that’s so good that shakes the entire music industry LOL. Someone is drinking the KoolAid. To claim it "shakes the entire music industry" just goes to show you're living in an alternate reality. It didn't generate music at all. It emulated Drake/The Weeknd's voices, which is trivial. A human produced the music itself. It's shaping up to be a grifting/marketing campaign. https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/18/23688141/ai-drake-song-ghostwriter-copyright-umg-the-weeknd https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/18/23688141/ai-drake-song-gh... >It (Midjourney v5) can generate realistic images that humans can’t tell if they are really not not Ever heard of Photoshop? It came out 33 years ago.

smoldesu 4y ago

GPT-7 will not replace all human jobs, though. Your original assertion is wrong. People will adapt, same as all the luddites did after denouncing the cotton gin. The progress of tech stops for no man, and assuming that "every job" will be replaced by AI is flat-out wrong. I will bet any amount of money over any term of time within my lifetime that every human job will not be taken by AI. As long as human society exists, we will establish labor classes and divide duties accordingly. You could argue that AI threatens society, but... how? It's done nothing thus far, fearmongering "alignment" issues signal a non-technical interest in problem solving. Unless you have a direct concern here, it sorta feels like you're bracing for Y2k24 here.

hammyhavoc 4y ago
It's the same pearl-clutching as what happened over crypto. People who don't know any better get swept up in the hype and start jumping to conclusions that aren't supported by the evidence.
- codermind 4y ago
  First of all, talking about AI researching experience, I am an AI research who's in the field for over 10 years. Second, this is not the conclusion that's reached by me. There is a survey where 30% of AI researchers think it's likely that AI may be a threat to humans if we don't align it well. Just give you another example. "it is "not inconceivable" that AI may develop to the point where it poses a threat to humanity" There are many other high profile researchers are voicing similar ideas.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - hammyhavoc 4y ago
    Where can I read some of your research of the past decade?
    - smoldesu 4y ago
      Substack, apparently :P
      - hammyhavoc 4y ago
        You would have thought a self-proclaimed researcher would cite plenty of references in what they publish. Not one in what I looked at. Pretty shocking even by blogging standards, let alone scientific standards.
  - codermind 3y ago
    This substack is my low profile place so I am not planning to reveal my identity here. And what I said shouldn't be relevant to who I am. I don't think you should judge the content by who said it. You should judge it by if it makes sense :)
  - codermind 3y ago
    And you seem to get distracted by if AGI will happen soon. My main point of the article is if AGI happens, it won't be just like chess bots. I didn't focus on if it will happen soon. But yes, I think it might happen in 50 years. And I might write another article about it!

hammyhavoc 4y ago

>you will know it’s a baby AGI The article states "Given the breadth and depth of GPT-4's capabilities, we believe that it could reasonably be viewed as an early (yet still incomplete) version of an artificial general intelligence (AGI) system". "believe" is doing a lot of heavy-lifting here, and you're jumping the gun entirely and calling it an AGI, when that's not what's being said. It's a reach. It also says this: "and we discuss the challenges ahead for advancing towards deeper and more comprehensive versions of AGI, including the possible need for pursuing a new paradigm that moves beyond next-word prediction" So, it even states that LLMs are not what's going to create an AGI.

ben_w 4y ago
As a linguistic relativist, I believe the meaning of words comes from usage rather than definitions; unfortunately, it is clear to me that there is no common definition of what AGI actually means, as it varies from "good at many things" to "superhuman at everything". So, what's the definition you're using when you say it isn't one?
- hammyhavoc 4y ago
  It's with the context of OpenAI's blog post in mind and the usage of their word "AGI" stoking the general public's imagination. https://futurism.com/experts-slam-openais-meaningless-new-promises-about-agi https://futurism.com/experts-slam-openais-meaningless-new-pr... The inference being that the use of the term in the research paper is thus nonsensical, and OpenAI's claims within their blog post are outrageous.

IAmGraydon 3y ago

>They can also generate music and that’s so good that shakes the entire music industry LOL. Someone is drinking the KoolAid. To claim it "shakes the entire music industry" just goes to show you're living in an alternate reality. It didn't generate music at all. It emulated Drake/The Weeknd's voices, which is trivial. A human produced the music itself. It's shaping up to be a grifting/marketing campaign. https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/18/23688141/ai-drake-song-ghostwriter-copyright-umg-the-weeknd https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/18/23688141/ai-drake-song-gh... >It (Midjourney v5) can generate realistic images that humans can’t tell if they are really not not Ever heard of Photoshop? It came out 33 years ago.