And it's not impossible at all (even if perhaps not actually likely) that their entire microtransaction business would run noticeably worse if players were able

And it's not impossible at all (even if perhaps not actually likely) that their entire microtransaction business would run noticeably worse if players were able to jump in and out of a session in an instant. That fridge run during launch? It's a sunken cost that should better be worth it. Now they are committed. (edit: reading some other parts it turns out the experiment has actually been made, console versions that never had the startup bug are apparently doing fine)