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Anyone still unconvinced a16z is just throwing darts at the wall?

• danpalmer 4y ago
  That's kinda the point of VC maths though. If you throw 100 darts and get 1 hit that grows by 1000x, you're up 10x which is a nice return. I agree that a16z has a lot of hubris, and their more recent investments seem to be going off the rails a bit (entirely personal opinion), but I don't think they would argue at all over the idea that most of their investments _won't work_.
  • bastawhiz 4y ago
    The point is to be good at throwing darts and knowing what to throw darts at. One in 100 random companies doesn't become a unicorn. The whole point of being good at investing is to be able to create a positive feedback loop that allows you to both continue throwing darts (well) and pay yourself handsomely. Not to spray darts at fads and hoping you're barking up the right tree.
  • JumpCrisscross 4y ago
    > If you throw 100 darts and get 1 hit that grows by 1000x, you're up 10x which is a nice return This math breaks down when you’re unilaterally pushing up valuations and writing massive cheques. That your concentration and downside. It’s why Andreessen lags its peers on returns. If you’re a founder, take their cash (obviously), but understand you’re closing doors (so take a lot of it).
  • rchaud 4y ago
    This kind of math can be pretty damaging because for every failure, the VC needs the one hit to be bigger and bigger. And with investments like Airbnb that are only "disruptive" due to breaking the law, A16z is incentivized to leverage lobbyists and other tools to simply change the laws to favour their pet investments.