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Do the stats tell the full story? If you stop prosecuting crime, and cops then stop arresting criminals, the stats go down and the crime goes up.

by zaroth 3y ago

bhouston 3y ago
> Do the stats tell the full story? If you stop prosecuting crime, and cops then stop arresting criminals, the stats go down and the crime goes up. Do you have any stats to share? I think another telling part in that article I linked to is that survey respondents in SF in July 2022 said the biggest issue for them, by almost a factor of 2, is homelessness and not crime. That stat appears to have a long-term upward trend: https://sfgov.org/scorecards/safety-net/homeless-population#:~:text=Number%20of%20People%20Experiencing%20Homelessness%20during%20each%20PIT%20Count%2C%202005%2D2022,-Sheltered%2FUnsheltered%3A&text=Under%20the%202022%20PIT%20Count,homeless%20population%20from%202019%20–%202022 https://sfgov.org/scorecards/safety-net/homeless-population#....
- ETH_start 3y ago
  The homelessness issue is mostly people with severe substance abuse problems, and concurrently brain-damage/mental-illness, roaming the streets, making people feel uneasy.
gumby 3y ago
Violent crime is a useful metric because it’s generally reported and followed. Property crime is what’s more likely to languish, leading to underreporting. So ppl who study crime incidence use violent crime as the like-to-like bellwether.
- dsfyu404ed 3y ago
  The whole reporting rate thing is mostly irrelevant IMO. It's the relative rate of property crime vs violent crime that matters. Violent crime is not generally directed at a broad of a cross section of the population like property crime is. Violent crime is dominated by people settling disputes that can't be settled in court. To your average techie who'd never think about rounding up a couple buddies and home invading the dude that sold them cut drugs SF's relatively high property crime rate makes it "feel rough" even if the violent crime rate isn't that remarkable.
nativeit 3y ago
Um, stats would reflect all of that. There would be clear data showing reported crimes that don’t lead to arrests or prosecution. Do you have this data, or are you just “common sensing” your way into scaring people out of meaningful and necessary criminal justice reforms?
- more_corn 3y ago
  Do you live in SF or is this just armchair criticism? The general lawlessness is reflected by evidence on the ground. The police in SF have stopped arresting people because the DA doesn’t prosecute. I’d say this is an open secret, but it’s not secret. It’s just common knowledge in SF. People have stopped bothering with the police because they don’t do anything. Total collapse of social order reflects in the stats as a drop in crime. Remember that viral video of the cops rolling up on a burglary in progress? (it was at a dispensary if that matters) The burglar ran out literally in front of the cops and they did nothing. That’s the attitude of the police in SF. It’s actually been that way for a while and was quaint before it got bad. Beer in the park? Technically illegal but cops aren’t going to do anything so feel free. I’ve had a friend tell me “it’s basically impossible to get a moving violation in San Francisco unless you do something blatantly antisocial“. Again this was actually a benefit before things got bad. A little flex feels nice. But it cuts both ways. I called and reported a homeless person stealing a nice road bike. It was locked to itself in front of a convenience store. He picked it up on a shopping cart and hustled away. Called the police. While watching him do it. Description , location. They refused to do anything. They hassled me for wasting their time. I watched on more than one occasion the weird blatant shoplifting. People just openly load up a bag and walk out. I was In getting a covid shot and a dude rode his bike into the pharmacy. He scooped some stuff off a shelf into a bag and rode out. Staff studiously ignored him. I’ve walked into stores where literally everything is under glass, locked to the shelf or empty box. because otherwise people just walk out with it because the police don’t do anything. I wanted to buy something but couldn’t because the staff were busy watching a strung-out dude who was clearly aiming to steal something. I went to check out what they were so attentive about. There was nothing left, just a few notebooks. Something like 17 stores have left Union square. In part because of the general lawlessness. I get what the police are doing though. If you don’t prosecute we don’t arrest. And they ARE trying to maintain order. They were out in union square in force to try to keep shoppers and stores safe in December. So yeah, data. Go visit San Francisco if you think this is all made up. Go buy some heroin openly on the street. Go steal some stuff. It’ll really open your eyes. But even with all that it feels pretty safe compared to other dangerous places. Aside from the uptick in armed robberies in public places. In conclusion. There’s stats and then there’s eyes on the ground. Go check it for yourself. I highly recommend it to anyone hoping to extend “necessary criminal justice reforms” (which I actually agree with). The SF model is not the right way to do it. I have some ideas but this is not the place.

Do the stats tell the full story? If you stop prosecuting crime, and cops then stop arresting criminals, the stats go down and the crime goes up.

by zaroth 3y ago

Do the stats tell the full story? If you stop prosecuting crime, and cops then stop arresting criminals, the stats go down and the crime goes up.

bhouston 3y ago

> Do the stats tell the full story? If you stop prosecuting crime, and cops then stop arresting criminals, the stats go down and the crime goes up. Do you have any stats to share? I think another telling part in that article I linked to is that survey respondents in SF in July 2022 said the biggest issue for them, by almost a factor of 2, is homelessness and not crime. That stat appears to have a long-term upward trend: https://sfgov.org/scorecards/safety-net/homeless-population#:~:text=Number%20of%20People%20Experiencing%20Homelessness%20during%20each%20PIT%20Count%2C%202005%2D2022,-Sheltered%2FUnsheltered%3A&text=Under%20the%202022%20PIT%20Count,homeless%20population%20from%202019%20–%202022 https://sfgov.org/scorecards/safety-net/homeless-population#....

ETH_start 3y ago
The homelessness issue is mostly people with severe substance abuse problems, and concurrently brain-damage/mental-illness, roaming the streets, making people feel uneasy.

gumby 3y ago

Violent crime is a useful metric because it’s generally reported and followed. Property crime is what’s more likely to languish, leading to underreporting. So ppl who study crime incidence use violent crime as the like-to-like bellwether.

dsfyu404ed 3y ago
The whole reporting rate thing is mostly irrelevant IMO. It's the relative rate of property crime vs violent crime that matters. Violent crime is not generally directed at a broad of a cross section of the population like property crime is. Violent crime is dominated by people settling disputes that can't be settled in court. To your average techie who'd never think about rounding up a couple buddies and home invading the dude that sold them cut drugs SF's relatively high property crime rate makes it "feel rough" even if the violent crime rate isn't that remarkable.

nativeit 3y ago

Um, stats would reflect all of that. There would be clear data showing reported crimes that don’t lead to arrests or prosecution. Do you have this data, or are you just “common sensing” your way into scaring people out of meaningful and necessary criminal justice reforms?

more_corn 3y ago
Do you live in SF or is this just armchair criticism? The general lawlessness is reflected by evidence on the ground. The police in SF have stopped arresting people because the DA doesn’t prosecute. I’d say this is an open secret, but it’s not secret. It’s just common knowledge in SF. People have stopped bothering with the police because they don’t do anything. Total collapse of social order reflects in the stats as a drop in crime. Remember that viral video of the cops rolling up on a burglary in progress? (it was at a dispensary if that matters) The burglar ran out literally in front of the cops and they did nothing. That’s the attitude of the police in SF. It’s actually been that way for a while and was quaint before it got bad. Beer in the park? Technically illegal but cops aren’t going to do anything so feel free. I’ve had a friend tell me “it’s basically impossible to get a moving violation in San Francisco unless you do something blatantly antisocial“. Again this was actually a benefit before things got bad. A little flex feels nice. But it cuts both ways. I called and reported a homeless person stealing a nice road bike. It was locked to itself in front of a convenience store. He picked it up on a shopping cart and hustled away. Called the police. While watching him do it. Description , location. They refused to do anything. They hassled me for wasting their time. I watched on more than one occasion the weird blatant shoplifting. People just openly load up a bag and walk out. I was In getting a covid shot and a dude rode his bike into the pharmacy. He scooped some stuff off a shelf into a bag and rode out. Staff studiously ignored him. I’ve walked into stores where literally everything is under glass, locked to the shelf or empty box. because otherwise people just walk out with it because the police don’t do anything. I wanted to buy something but couldn’t because the staff were busy watching a strung-out dude who was clearly aiming to steal something. I went to check out what they were so attentive about. There was nothing left, just a few notebooks. Something like 17 stores have left Union square. In part because of the general lawlessness. I get what the police are doing though. If you don’t prosecute we don’t arrest. And they ARE trying to maintain order. They were out in union square in force to try to keep shoppers and stores safe in December. So yeah, data. Go visit San Francisco if you think this is all made up. Go buy some heroin openly on the street. Go steal some stuff. It’ll really open your eyes. But even with all that it feels pretty safe compared to other dangerous places. Aside from the uptick in armed robberies in public places. In conclusion. There’s stats and then there’s eyes on the ground. Go check it for yourself. I highly recommend it to anyone hoping to extend “necessary criminal justice reforms” (which I actually agree with). The SF model is not the right way to do it. I have some ideas but this is not the place.