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You don't have to be lucky with gold. You could have bought in roughly 88 of the last 90 years and been perfectly well protected over time from the loss of val

• InclinedPlane 15y ago
  Indeed, it's always good to sell near the peak of a speculative bubble. What is your argument that "this time it's different" for gold? That the current exceptional run-up of gold prices over the last decade is sustainable and the current inflated gold price will be the price floor for the remainder of the 21st century? If you're lucky enough to buy gold in the doldrums and sell it at the peak of a bubble, you make a killing. If you're unlucky enough to buy gold during a bubble and sell it during the doldrums you lose a lot of money. If you're neither lucky nor unlucky and buy and sell during the doldrums then you end up making a very paltry return on investment that is inferior to the average of other equally popular forms of investment (such as property or stocks). Buying gold today is just as smart an investment as buying a house in 2006 or buying stock in pets.com in 1999.
  • shingen 15y ago
    No, I'm not making any argument that "this time is different". I'm making the argument that the dollar is not going to increase in value over the next 10, 20, 30 years. Rather, the dollar is going to continue to lose large amounts of real purchasing power. Gold priced in dollars will rise accordingly. Just calculating entitlement costs alone, the Fed will be required to massively devalue the dollar over the coming decades to keep a mass social panic from occurring due to defaults by the Feds on paying SS or Medicare et al.