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I’d agree if it was a grift if Tesla was sitting on their hands and not making progress. Eight years really isn’t that long when it comes to solving hard probl

by valine 3y ago

I’d agree if it was a grift if Tesla was sitting on their hands and not making progress. Eight years really isn’t that long when it comes to solving hard problems. Tesla has a long attention span, and personally I think that’s a virtue which significantly increases their odds of success.

ra7 3y ago
> Eight years really isn’t that long when it comes to solving hard problems. I agree. But it seems Tesla and Musk don’t. Because Musk said in 2016 that autonomy is a “solved problem” and has been saying every year that they will have FSD by the end of the year.
- simondotau 3y ago
  Yes, Musk said that in 2016. In 2016, Uber predicted it was just a few years away.[0] In 2012, Google predicted driverless cars for all by 2017.[1] In 2015, BMW predicted we'd have driverless cars by 2020.[2] In 2016, industry analysts and self driving experts predicted 2019.[3] [0] https://www.businessinsider.com/travis-kalanick-interview-on-self-driving-cars-future-driver-jobs-2016-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/travis-kalanick-interview-on... [1] https://www.theregister.com/2012/09/25/google_automatic_cars_legal https://www.theregister.com/2012/09/25/google_automatic_cars... [2] https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/sep/13/self-driving-cars-bmw-google-2020-driving https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/sep/13/self-driv... [3] https://www.businessinsider.com/report-10-million-self-driving-cars-will-be-on-the-road-by-2020-2015-5-6 https://www.businessinsider.com/report-10-million-self-drivi...
  - ra7 3y ago
    The difference is they didn’t take money from customers to deliver a promise at a future date.
    - simondotau 3y ago
      Companies make claims about the future for many reasons, not all of which involve direct cash payment from customers. BMW wanted press coverage that showed them as on the pulse of advanced technology. Perception influences brand associations and car purchase decisions.
      - ra7 3y ago
        It's not the same as repeatedly promising delivery of the feature — one of the hardest technological problems being worked on — year after year, while continuing to take money from customers for said feature. Not to mention gaining a ton of positive coverage for the company that enables sales and stock appreciation.
      - clouddrover 3y ago
        > Companies make claims about the future for many reasons Here is Tesla lying about the FSD capabilities of the cars they were putting on the road in 2016: https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now-have-full-self-driving-hardware https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now... Show me a similar lie from another car company about their production vehicles.
  - jjoonathan 3y ago
    In 1966, MIT predicted that computer vision was a summer intern sized project, but it actually took an entire academic field and 50 years. [1] https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/6125 https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/6125
    - UncleEntity 3y ago
      Umm, no. They had a project to use summer workers on different tasks in a “reasonably coordinated” way. And to produce a “simple system” useful for further work. Funny what you learn if you actually read the links you post… I know, bad form to suggest people don’t read the links they post in their astroturfing sessions.
steveBK123 3y ago
They are collecting up to $15k/car for 8 years selling software bound to cars that likely will never be able to FSD in their useful lifespans. So yes it's a grift. If this was a free beta, or a $1000 option, sure. But this thing is a double-digit % of price add on to these cars. It is being aggressively marketed & sold for years while it can't actually deliver on those promises.

by valine 3y ago

ra7 3y ago

> Eight years really isn’t that long when it comes to solving hard problems. I agree. But it seems Tesla and Musk don’t. Because Musk said in 2016 that autonomy is a “solved problem” and has been saying every year that they will have FSD by the end of the year.

simondotau 3y ago
Yes, Musk said that in 2016. In 2016, Uber predicted it was just a few years away.[0] In 2012, Google predicted driverless cars for all by 2017.[1] In 2015, BMW predicted we'd have driverless cars by 2020.[2] In 2016, industry analysts and self driving experts predicted 2019.[3] [0] https://www.businessinsider.com/travis-kalanick-interview-on-self-driving-cars-future-driver-jobs-2016-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/travis-kalanick-interview-on... [1] https://www.theregister.com/2012/09/25/google_automatic_cars_legal https://www.theregister.com/2012/09/25/google_automatic_cars... [2] https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/sep/13/self-driving-cars-bmw-google-2020-driving https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/sep/13/self-driv... [3] https://www.businessinsider.com/report-10-million-self-driving-cars-will-be-on-the-road-by-2020-2015-5-6 https://www.businessinsider.com/report-10-million-self-drivi...
- ra7 3y ago
  The difference is they didn’t take money from customers to deliver a promise at a future date.
  - simondotau 3y ago
    Companies make claims about the future for many reasons, not all of which involve direct cash payment from customers. BMW wanted press coverage that showed them as on the pulse of advanced technology. Perception influences brand associations and car purchase decisions.
    - ra7 3y ago
      It's not the same as repeatedly promising delivery of the feature — one of the hardest technological problems being worked on — year after year, while continuing to take money from customers for said feature. Not to mention gaining a ton of positive coverage for the company that enables sales and stock appreciation.
    - clouddrover 3y ago
      > Companies make claims about the future for many reasons Here is Tesla lying about the FSD capabilities of the cars they were putting on the road in 2016: https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now-have-full-self-driving-hardware https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now... Show me a similar lie from another car company about their production vehicles.
- jjoonathan 3y ago
  In 1966, MIT predicted that computer vision was a summer intern sized project, but it actually took an entire academic field and 50 years. [1] https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/6125 https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/6125
  - UncleEntity 3y ago
    Umm, no. They had a project to use summer workers on different tasks in a “reasonably coordinated” way. And to produce a “simple system” useful for further work. Funny what you learn if you actually read the links you post… I know, bad form to suggest people don’t read the links they post in their astroturfing sessions.

steveBK123 3y ago

They are collecting up to $15k/car for 8 years selling software bound to cars that likely will never be able to FSD in their useful lifespans. So yes it's a grift. If this was a free beta, or a $1000 option, sure. But this thing is a double-digit % of price add on to these cars. It is being aggressively marketed & sold for years while it can't actually deliver on those promises.