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> Tesla’s number give a very incorrect impression — so incorrect that it is baffling why they publish them when this has been pointed out many times by many wri

> Tesla’s number give a very incorrect impression — so incorrect that it is baffling why they publish them when this has been pointed out many times by many writers and researchers. It isn't baffling, it's completely in character. Bullshitting is standard operating procedure for Tesla. It's simply the nature of the company. For example, Musk recently proclaimed "FSD soon!": https://insideevs.com/news/663396/elon-musk-tesla-fsd-potentially-solved-2023/ https://insideevs.com/news/663396/elon-musk-tesla-fsd-potent... And that's not new: https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-promises-full-self-driving-next-year-for-th-1848432496 https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-promises-full-self-driving-ne... In 2016 Tesla claimed that all Tesla cars being produced "have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver". That was a lie too: https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now-have-full-self-driving-hardware https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now... Tesla will keep lying until the lies stop working, but there do indeed appear to be suckers born every minute.

valine 4y ago
Predicting when an algorithmic problem will be solved is a fools game. I don’t think Musk was intending to deceive with FSD, he’s just wildly over optimistic and partially blinded by the financial upside. That being said, just because they have repeatedly failed to predict when “FSD” will be solved, doesn’t mean they aren’t making progress. I’ve been very happy with their latest v11 release, it’s drives so freaking smoothly on the highway.
- clouddrover 4y ago
  > I don’t think Musk was intending to deceive with FSD, he’s just wildly over optimistic When he does it year after year after year it's no longer "optimism", it's just bullshit and lies.
- ra7 4y ago
  You can’t be “wildly over optimistic” for 8 years in a row. That’s just called lying and deliberately misleading, especially when financial upside is involved.
  - valine 4y ago
    I’d agree if it was a grift if Tesla was sitting on their hands and not making progress. Eight years really isn’t that long when it comes to solving hard problems. Tesla has a long attention span, and personally I think that’s a virtue which significantly increases their odds of success.
    - ra7 4y ago
      > Eight years really isn’t that long when it comes to solving hard problems. I agree. But it seems Tesla and Musk don’t. Because Musk said in 2016 that autonomy is a “solved problem” and has been saying every year that they will have FSD by the end of the year.
      - simondotau 4y ago
        Yes, Musk said that in 2016. In 2016, Uber predicted it was just a few years away.[0] In 2012, Google predicted driverless cars for all by 2017.[1] In 2015, BMW predicted we'd have driverless cars by 2020.[2] In 2016, industry analysts and self driving experts predicted 2019.[3] [0] https://www.businessinsider.com/travis-kalanick-interview-on-self-driving-cars-future-driver-jobs-2016-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/travis-kalanick-interview-on... [1] https://www.theregister.com/2012/09/25/google_automatic_cars_legal https://www.theregister.com/2012/09/25/google_automatic_cars... [2] https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/sep/13/self-driving-cars-bmw-google-2020-driving https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/sep/13/self-driv... [3] https://www.businessinsider.com/report-10-million-self-driving-cars-will-be-on-the-road-by-2020-2015-5-6 https://www.businessinsider.com/report-10-million-self-drivi...
        ra7 4y ago
        The difference is they didn’t take money from customers to deliver a promise at a future date.
        simondotau 4y ago
- d23 4y ago
  > I don’t think Musk was intending to deceive with FSD If it were an outlier event, sure. But his entire motive seems to be to deceive; he's pathologically disingenuous. He has not earned the benefit of the doubt.

valine 4y ago

Predicting when an algorithmic problem will be solved is a fools game. I don’t think Musk was intending to deceive with FSD, he’s just wildly over optimistic and partially blinded by the financial upside. That being said, just because they have repeatedly failed to predict when “FSD” will be solved, doesn’t mean they aren’t making progress. I’ve been very happy with their latest v11 release, it’s drives so freaking smoothly on the highway.

clouddrover 4y ago
> I don’t think Musk was intending to deceive with FSD, he’s just wildly over optimistic When he does it year after year after year it's no longer "optimism", it's just bullshit and lies.
ra7 4y ago
You can’t be “wildly over optimistic” for 8 years in a row. That’s just called lying and deliberately misleading, especially when financial upside is involved.
- valine 4y ago
  I’d agree if it was a grift if Tesla was sitting on their hands and not making progress. Eight years really isn’t that long when it comes to solving hard problems. Tesla has a long attention span, and personally I think that’s a virtue which significantly increases their odds of success.
  - ra7 4y ago
    > Eight years really isn’t that long when it comes to solving hard problems. I agree. But it seems Tesla and Musk don’t. Because Musk said in 2016 that autonomy is a “solved problem” and has been saying every year that they will have FSD by the end of the year.
    - simondotau 4y ago
      Yes, Musk said that in 2016. In 2016, Uber predicted it was just a few years away.[0] In 2012, Google predicted driverless cars for all by 2017.[1] In 2015, BMW predicted we'd have driverless cars by 2020.[2] In 2016, industry analysts and self driving experts predicted 2019.[3] [0] https://www.businessinsider.com/travis-kalanick-interview-on-self-driving-cars-future-driver-jobs-2016-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/travis-kalanick-interview-on... [1] https://www.theregister.com/2012/09/25/google_automatic_cars_legal https://www.theregister.com/2012/09/25/google_automatic_cars... [2] https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/sep/13/self-driving-cars-bmw-google-2020-driving https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/sep/13/self-driv... [3] https://www.businessinsider.com/report-10-million-self-driving-cars-will-be-on-the-road-by-2020-2015-5-6 https://www.businessinsider.com/report-10-million-self-drivi...
      - ra7 4y ago
        The difference is they didn’t take money from customers to deliver a promise at a future date.
        simondotau 4y ago
d23 4y ago
> I don’t think Musk was intending to deceive with FSD If it were an outlier event, sure. But his entire motive seems to be to deceive; he's pathologically disingenuous. He has not earned the benefit of the doubt.