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China carefully controlled population growth for a lot of years. The result was very asymmetrical due to misogyny, but there was surely some addition to Chinese

China carefully controlled population growth for a lot of years. The result was very asymmetrical due to misogyny, but there was surely some addition to Chinese quality of life over the long term.

qwytw 4y ago
>surely some addition Disputable. And they'll have severe problems because of it in the upcoming decades.
- mensetmanusman 4y ago
  It’s definitely easy to argue that there are ‘some’ benefits to the one child policy. But it’s probably like a sugar rush, where an addict has the benefit of experiencing a short term high for a long term decline in health. China is fucked.
dirtyid 4y ago
PRC family planning is like one of the few "state has 100 year plan" memes that's worked out relatively well in real life. Reduce kids, increase parent mobility + productivity to build wealth, concentrate said resources to the 1-2 kids, move up industrial/skill/value chain, done at PRC population scale maybe chance get rich before old. Like this is basic demography planning / projection 101 for some reason useful idiots in west thinks PRC demographers didn't do obvious due diligence. Sure, policies over corrected on males/birthrate, as CCP hammering policies tend to do, but PRC demographic development is essentially on track - India now trending towards the shitshow that PRC was trying to avoid, 1B+ "low quality" people stuck in shit/informal economy, i.e. more bodies than what the system can handle. Now PRC has one of the greatest demographic trend in next 100 years with respect to sustainable human capita relative to geopolitics: 1) declining population, prodominantly poor, unskilled, and old being aged out. Supported by high home ownership and savings rate because this cohort has little expectation of state support. taps head don't need to worry about onerously high dependency western ratios if people don't expect such dependence. This cohort will just have to settle with mostly taking care of self while being 100x richer than when they were born. It's not 1st world QoL, many stuck with being old before rich, but it's better than most in same circumstances. 2) the high skill demographic divident / second wind of moving from current 15M STEM to 50-100M STEM in next 100 years, while broader workforce going through general upgrading of transitioning from current 25% skilled workforce to 70-80%, comparable to modern JP/DE. This is the largest, concentrated high skilled demographic divident in human history, likely for ever since very few countries (i.e. basically India) has the base population and systemic ability to coordinate and exploit so many bodies up the human capita chain. Most of west going to be reduced version of itself since already maxed out human capital, maybe can be backfilled by automation. Few immigration heavy anglos will grow at steady pace, assuming their onerous welfare nets hold. PRC is shifting from productive capacity of 2 Japans and 6 Nigerias into 6 Japans over same cycle - that's the most growth headroom and systemic capacity to back it up.

China carefully controlled population growth for a lot of years. The result was very asymmetrical due to misogyny, but there was surely some addition to Chinese quality of life over the long term.

qwytw 4y ago

>surely some addition Disputable. And they'll have severe problems because of it in the upcoming decades.

mensetmanusman 4y ago
It’s definitely easy to argue that there are ‘some’ benefits to the one child policy. But it’s probably like a sugar rush, where an addict has the benefit of experiencing a short term high for a long term decline in health. China is fucked.

dirtyid 4y ago

PRC family planning is like one of the few "state has 100 year plan" memes that's worked out relatively well in real life. Reduce kids, increase parent mobility + productivity to build wealth, concentrate said resources to the 1-2 kids, move up industrial/skill/value chain, done at PRC population scale maybe chance get rich before old. Like this is basic demography planning / projection 101 for some reason useful idiots in west thinks PRC demographers didn't do obvious due diligence. Sure, policies over corrected on males/birthrate, as CCP hammering policies tend to do, but PRC demographic development is essentially on track - India now trending towards the shitshow that PRC was trying to avoid, 1B+ "low quality" people stuck in shit/informal economy, i.e. more bodies than what the system can handle. Now PRC has one of the greatest demographic trend in next 100 years with respect to sustainable human capita relative to geopolitics: 1) declining population, prodominantly poor, unskilled, and old being aged out. Supported by high home ownership and savings rate because this cohort has little expectation of state support. taps head don't need to worry about onerously high dependency western ratios if people don't expect such dependence. This cohort will just have to settle with mostly taking care of self while being 100x richer than when they were born. It's not 1st world QoL, many stuck with being old before rich, but it's better than most in same circumstances. 2) the high skill demographic divident / second wind of moving from current 15M STEM to 50-100M STEM in next 100 years, while broader workforce going through general upgrading of transitioning from current 25% skilled workforce to 70-80%, comparable to modern JP/DE. This is the largest, concentrated high skilled demographic divident in human history, likely for ever since very few countries (i.e. basically India) has the base population and systemic ability to coordinate and exploit so many bodies up the human capita chain. Most of west going to be reduced version of itself since already maxed out human capital, maybe can be backfilled by automation. Few immigration heavy anglos will grow at steady pace, assuming their onerous welfare nets hold. PRC is shifting from productive capacity of 2 Japans and 6 Nigerias into 6 Japans over same cycle - that's the most growth headroom and systemic capacity to back it up.