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Nuclear power has high upfront investments, always. And pretty much all nuclear projects are finished behind schedule and wayyy above budget. After a couple of

Nuclear power has high upfront investments, always. And pretty much all nuclear projects are finished behind schedule and wayyy above budget. After a couple of decades of this, reasonable people may come to the conclusion that these investments and risks are quite "inherent". Your comparison is meaningless, because the 150 billion € investment is not comparable to a single nuclear plant. And realizing ten times the current building capacity for nuclear plants with the same (or stricter) regulation and standards? That is almost delusionally optimistic.

illiarian 3y ago
> And pretty much all nuclear projects are finished behind schedule and wayyy above budget. All projects do, including wind and solar. --- start quote --- Ernst & Young (EY) has found that an average power and utility megaproject is delivered 35% over budget and two years behind schedule Of the megaprojects surveyed, 64% were delayed and 57% were over budge. Almost three-quarters of hydropower, water, coal and nuclear infrastructure projects were over budget by 49% on average, --- end quote --- https://www.offshorewind.biz/2016/12/02/offshore-wind-projects-have-less-delays-and-cost-overruns-says-ey/ https://www.offshorewind.biz/2016/12/02/offshore-wind-projec... > And realizing ten times the current building capacity for nuclear plants How much do we need to overbuild wind and solar?
- deleted 3y ago
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- jacquesm 3y ago
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- bayesian_horse 3y ago
  Nuclear power projects are not just over-budget, they start off with a budget of a couple of billions, whereas individual solar or wind power projects are way smaller and therefor carry less of a risk. Nuclear power requires a huge financial backing from a single entity (even it is "fed" by multiple sources). Almost always, the risk is carried by society, the profit, if any is gobbled up by some corporation. There is no need to "overbuild" wind or solar. There has never been any illusion those sources will produce at 100% capacity all the time. There will eventually be energy storage to level out the peaks, but most countries still have years to build up to the point where this is necessary.
  - illiarian 3y ago
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wkat4242 3y ago
Also, the decommissioning costs are really high, are usually not factored into the investment and often have to be absorbed by the state.
- _ph_ 3y ago
  Current calculations from German decommissioning projects point at 10-20 billion per plant.
- deleted 3y ago
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Turing_Machine 3y ago
> Nuclear power has high upfront investments, always. And pretty much all nuclear projects are finished behind schedule and wayyy above budget. Which grid-scale solar projects have gone into production on schedule and under budget? Are there any?
- philipkglass 3y ago
  Yes, it's actually pretty common. See comparisons across generating technologies in "An international comparative assessment of construction cost overruns for electricity infrastructure" [1]. Here's what the researchers found for solar (section 3.4): Thirty-nine solar PV and CSP power plants, representing 2374 MW of installed capacity and $16.5 billion worth of investment, were analyzed. (These are utility-scale infrastructure projects, thus they do not include the familiar rooftop solar collectors on buildings or residential configurations.) These projects as a class actually came in $4.2 million less than budgeted, or $200,000 less than expected per project. These solar systems had the lowest average cost escalation per reference class (1.3 percent), the least time overruns (an average of 2 months ahead of schedule), and the lowest standard deviation for amount of overruns and time overruns. They also had the largest total amount of cost underruns, with the entire class of projects costing $163.9 million less than budgeted, though some of this may be explained by dramatic reductions in cost over the past 4 years. As Table 5 indicates, only 3 facilities had overruns greater than $50 million and only 3 facilities had cost overruns greater than 30%, all of which were CSP facilities rather than large-scale solar PV apparatuses. Here are a few solar projects that outperformed in recent years: O'Brien solar farm in Wisconsin, completed in 2021 on time and under budget: https://www.boldt.com/project/edf-renewables-obrien-solar-farm/ https://www.boldt.com/project/edf-renewables-obrien-solar-fa... Mount Signal 3 in California, completed in 2018 ahead of schedule: https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2018/12/8minutenergy-capital-dynamics-complete-mount-signal-3-solar-farm/ https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2018/12/8minutenergy-c... Sun Streams 2 in Arizona, completed under budget and ahead of schedule in 2021: https://www.enr.com/articles/55112-best-project-energy-industrial-sun-streams-2 https://www.enr.com/articles/55112-best-project-energy-indus... Hillston solar farm in Australia, reached full commercial operation in 2022 ahead of schedule: https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/hillston-solar-farm-mb2450/ https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/hillston-solar-farm-mb24... Kuala Ketil solar farm in Malaysia, completed in 2019 ahead of schedule: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/09/12/50-mw-solar-park-comes-online-in-malaysia/ https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/09/12/50-mw-solar-park-come... [1] https://www.qualenergia.it/sites/default/files/articolo-doc/1-s2.0-S2214629614000942-main%281%29.pdf https://www.qualenergia.it/sites/default/files/articolo-doc/...

illiarian 3y ago

> And pretty much all nuclear projects are finished behind schedule and wayyy above budget. All projects do, including wind and solar. --- start quote --- Ernst & Young (EY) has found that an average power and utility megaproject is delivered 35% over budget and two years behind schedule Of the megaprojects surveyed, 64% were delayed and 57% were over budge. Almost three-quarters of hydropower, water, coal and nuclear infrastructure projects were over budget by 49% on average, --- end quote --- https://www.offshorewind.biz/2016/12/02/offshore-wind-projects-have-less-delays-and-cost-overruns-says-ey/ https://www.offshorewind.biz/2016/12/02/offshore-wind-projec... > And realizing ten times the current building capacity for nuclear plants How much do we need to overbuild wind and solar?

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
jacquesm 3y ago
[flagged]
bayesian_horse 3y ago
Nuclear power projects are not just over-budget, they start off with a budget of a couple of billions, whereas individual solar or wind power projects are way smaller and therefor carry less of a risk. Nuclear power requires a huge financial backing from a single entity (even it is "fed" by multiple sources). Almost always, the risk is carried by society, the profit, if any is gobbled up by some corporation. There is no need to "overbuild" wind or solar. There has never been any illusion those sources will produce at 100% capacity all the time. There will eventually be energy storage to level out the peaks, but most countries still have years to build up to the point where this is necessary.
- illiarian 3y ago
  [dead]

wkat4242 3y ago

Also, the decommissioning costs are really high, are usually not factored into the investment and often have to be absorbed by the state.

_ph_ 3y ago
Current calculations from German decommissioning projects point at 10-20 billion per plant.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

Turing_Machine 3y ago

> Nuclear power has high upfront investments, always. And pretty much all nuclear projects are finished behind schedule and wayyy above budget. Which grid-scale solar projects have gone into production on schedule and under budget? Are there any?

philipkglass 3y ago
Yes, it's actually pretty common. See comparisons across generating technologies in "An international comparative assessment of construction cost overruns for electricity infrastructure" [1]. Here's what the researchers found for solar (section 3.4): Thirty-nine solar PV and CSP power plants, representing 2374 MW of installed capacity and $16.5 billion worth of investment, were analyzed. (These are utility-scale infrastructure projects, thus they do not include the familiar rooftop solar collectors on buildings or residential configurations.) These projects as a class actually came in $4.2 million less than budgeted, or $200,000 less than expected per project. These solar systems had the lowest average cost escalation per reference class (1.3 percent), the least time overruns (an average of 2 months ahead of schedule), and the lowest standard deviation for amount of overruns and time overruns. They also had the largest total amount of cost underruns, with the entire class of projects costing $163.9 million less than budgeted, though some of this may be explained by dramatic reductions in cost over the past 4 years. As Table 5 indicates, only 3 facilities had overruns greater than $50 million and only 3 facilities had cost overruns greater than 30%, all of which were CSP facilities rather than large-scale solar PV apparatuses. Here are a few solar projects that outperformed in recent years: O'Brien solar farm in Wisconsin, completed in 2021 on time and under budget: https://www.boldt.com/project/edf-renewables-obrien-solar-farm/ https://www.boldt.com/project/edf-renewables-obrien-solar-fa... Mount Signal 3 in California, completed in 2018 ahead of schedule: https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2018/12/8minutenergy-capital-dynamics-complete-mount-signal-3-solar-farm/ https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2018/12/8minutenergy-c... Sun Streams 2 in Arizona, completed under budget and ahead of schedule in 2021: https://www.enr.com/articles/55112-best-project-energy-industrial-sun-streams-2 https://www.enr.com/articles/55112-best-project-energy-indus... Hillston solar farm in Australia, reached full commercial operation in 2022 ahead of schedule: https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/hillston-solar-farm-mb2450/ https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/hillston-solar-farm-mb24... Kuala Ketil solar farm in Malaysia, completed in 2019 ahead of schedule: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/09/12/50-mw-solar-park-comes-online-in-malaysia/ https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/09/12/50-mw-solar-park-come... [1] https://www.qualenergia.it/sites/default/files/articolo-doc/1-s2.0-S2214629614000942-main%281%29.pdf https://www.qualenergia.it/sites/default/files/articolo-doc/...