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> Silver was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time in 2009 after an election forecasting system he developed successfully predicted the o
by test098 3y ago
> Silver was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time in 2009 after an election forecasting system he developed successfully predicted the outcomes in forty-nine of the fifty states in the 2008 U.S. presidential election.[2] His subsequent election forecasting systems accurately predicted the outcome of the 2012 and 2020 presidential elections with a high degree of accuracy, and - at the time - gave Presidential candidate Donald Trump the highest chance of success the day of the 2016 presidential election of reputable polls at the time.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver
- dragonwriter 3y ago> gave Presidential candidate Donald Trump the highest chance of success the day of the 2016 presidential election of reputable polls at the time This makes a fundamental error of confusing “polls” (which is not a category Silver’s work falls into) with statistical predictions based on aggregates of polls (which is what it is.)
- itsdrewmiller 3y agoI think it's poorly worded - there were a bunch of other aggregators at the time who said things like Clinton was 99% likely to win. IIRC 538 assumed that polling bias could be correlated between states while most analyses were assuming that each poll was completely independent, but that's probably an oversimplification given the vagaries of memory.
- dllthomas 3y agoYour recollection matches mine, fwiw.