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Seriously? What did he get wrong in 2016? Trump squeaked it out. 528 provides probabilities, and he expressed a very strong possibility of Trump winning with a

Seriously? What did he get wrong in 2016? Trump squeaked it out. 528 provides probabilities, and he expressed a very strong possibility of Trump winning with a 28% chance--much higher than almost everyone else including the Clinton campaign.

rhaway84773 3y ago
Also, the numbers with which Trump won (he was the only Presidential candidate, or at least one of a couple, to win despite getting fewer overall votes), it’s pretty clear his odds were indeed low.
- throw0101b 3y ago
  There have been five times where the Electoral College winner lost the popular vote: 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, 2016. * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_in_which_the_winner_lost_the_popular_vote https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presiden...
- jcranmer 3y ago
  > (he was the only Presidential candidate, or at least one of a couple, to win despite getting fewer overall votes) Of the 52 elections from 1816 onwards (1816 being the first election where a majority of states determined their electors from the popular vote), 5 of them ended up with the victor not winning the plurality of the popular vote: * 1824: Andrew Jackson has a solid plurality, but fails to gain a majority of electoral votes, causing the election to be decided by the House vote. Ultimately, Clay (#4 in electoral and and #3 in popular vote) throws his support behind Adams (#2 in electoral and popular vote), and the Clay + Adams numbers would reach the majority threshold needed. (Okay, the House tiebreaks don't work like that, but this is long enough already). * 1876: Hayes gains the victory despite Tilden having an outright majority of the popular vote (the only one on this list to do so), although the counting of the votes produced severely acrimonious results resulting in a commission to determine which returns were valid (which ultimately ruled for Hayes). * 1888: Harrison wins the electoral vote despite Cleveland having the plurality * 2000: Bush wins the electoral vote despite Gore having the plurality * 2016: Trump wins the electoral vote despite Clinton having the plurality. Out of 52 elections, 5 times the victor failed to achieve a plurality vote. That's about 10% of the time, which isn't all that rare when you think about it.
  - KerrAvon 3y ago
    Bush should have lost the electoral vote in 2000. The Supreme Court handed him the presidency. > The Florida recount and subsequent litigation resulted in major post-election controversy, and with speculative analysis suggesting that limited county-based recounts would likely have confirmed a Bush victory, whereas a statewide recount would likely have given the state to Gore.[6][7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidentia...
pbj1968 3y ago
May want to rewatch that election night coverage with him in it. He seemed surprised to me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaWSe_uij74 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaWSe_uij74
- operatingthetan 3y ago
  So you select a subjective interpretation of his response over his statistical prediction model? Wild stuff.

rhaway84773 3y ago

Also, the numbers with which Trump won (he was the only Presidential candidate, or at least one of a couple, to win despite getting fewer overall votes), it’s pretty clear his odds were indeed low.

throw0101b 3y ago
There have been five times where the Electoral College winner lost the popular vote: 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, 2016. * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_in_which_the_winner_lost_the_popular_vote https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presiden...
jcranmer 3y ago
> (he was the only Presidential candidate, or at least one of a couple, to win despite getting fewer overall votes) Of the 52 elections from 1816 onwards (1816 being the first election where a majority of states determined their electors from the popular vote), 5 of them ended up with the victor not winning the plurality of the popular vote: * 1824: Andrew Jackson has a solid plurality, but fails to gain a majority of electoral votes, causing the election to be decided by the House vote. Ultimately, Clay (#4 in electoral and and #3 in popular vote) throws his support behind Adams (#2 in electoral and popular vote), and the Clay + Adams numbers would reach the majority threshold needed. (Okay, the House tiebreaks don't work like that, but this is long enough already). * 1876: Hayes gains the victory despite Tilden having an outright majority of the popular vote (the only one on this list to do so), although the counting of the votes produced severely acrimonious results resulting in a commission to determine which returns were valid (which ultimately ruled for Hayes). * 1888: Harrison wins the electoral vote despite Cleveland having the plurality * 2000: Bush wins the electoral vote despite Gore having the plurality * 2016: Trump wins the electoral vote despite Clinton having the plurality. Out of 52 elections, 5 times the victor failed to achieve a plurality vote. That's about 10% of the time, which isn't all that rare when you think about it.
- KerrAvon 3y ago
  Bush should have lost the electoral vote in 2000. The Supreme Court handed him the presidency. > The Florida recount and subsequent litigation resulted in major post-election controversy, and with speculative analysis suggesting that limited county-based recounts would likely have confirmed a Bush victory, whereas a statewide recount would likely have given the state to Gore.[6][7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidentia...

pbj1968 3y ago

May want to rewatch that election night coverage with him in it. He seemed surprised to me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaWSe_uij74 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaWSe_uij74

operatingthetan 3y ago
So you select a subjective interpretation of his response over his statistical prediction model? Wild stuff.