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Odd Lots did an episode on what happens to fossil fuel demand as we go through the transition to renewables: https://omny.fm/shows/odd-lots/what-so-many-people

by runako 4y ago

Odd Lots did an episode on what happens to fossil fuel demand as we go through the transition to renewables: https://omny.fm/shows/odd-lots/what-so-many-people-get-wrong-about-the-energy-tra https://omny.fm/shows/odd-lots/what-so-many-people-get-wrong... They also cite the Jevons paradox in a discussion of the possible counterintuitive outcomes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

cubefox 4y ago
As an aside, EV doesn't mean renewable. In Germany the nuclear reactors have been turned off due to the influence of the Green party, and natural gas transfer from Nord Stream I was stopped by Russia due to the Ukraine war. As a consequence, more energy is now created from coal, since renewables like wind and solar are too volatile to replace nuclear and natural gas.
- epistasis 4y ago
  By this logic, using diesel-powered haul trucks to Mike uranium, and building nuclear reactor facilities with massive amounts of steel rebar and concrete, both of which we don't even know how to decarbonize, means that nuclear is not low emissions either. The only valid argument is a quantitative one, and in that regime, EVs powered with a tiny fraction of coal, like the grid in Germany, are a massive win. But I will say that I'm not surprised to see yet another pro-nuclear, anti-other-clean-tech take. These two things seem to go hand in hand.
- bob_theslob646 4y ago
  I'm not sure why this comment is being down voted. All it is stating is facts. Most of the lithium needed for electric vehicles is going to be mined and that is not an environmental friendly process. No one's talking about how they're going to power electric vehicles in the United States... It's a ticking time bomb for energy infrastructure in the United States. They should be pursuing everything all at once,not reducing because you always need a backup.
  - epistasis 4y ago
    None of this is true. Coal is a minor component of Germany's power, and even if it were bigger, EVs are a big win on pollution even when largely powered by coal. And as for lithium being "dirty" have you bothered to even compare it to other sources of mining? Such as for the massive amount of stew that goes into cars? Or the absolutely massive amounts of waste and destruction that happens to extract oil to power cars? Citing "environmental damage" but not acknowledging right away that it's far far far less than the alternatives is simply playing rhetorical games. We must be far more logical and realistic and pragmatic if we want to take care of the environment. Above all, factuality is important.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - cameldrv 4y ago
      Coal is about 35% of electricity in Germany.
      - cubefox 4y ago
        Yeah: > More than a third (36.3%) of the electricity produced and fed into the grid in Germany in the third quarter of 2022 came from coal-fired power plants (third quarter of 2021: 31.9%). https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2022/12/PE22_518_433.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2022/12/PE22_518_433.html And that number is from before the last nuclear reactors were turned off.
    - bob_theslob646 4y ago
      https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220105-lithium-batteries-big-unanswered-question https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220105-lithium-batterie... Yeah, I suggest you start posting some facts because that's quite a claim. Lithium uses a f** load of water to be mined, more so than copper more so than gold or zinc. (Water Use in Industries of the Future: Mining Industry" by the U.S. Department of Energy) The water footprint of lithium production" by M. Northey, T. Mudd, and D. Werner, published in ScienceDirect: This research article provides a detailed analysis of the water requirements for various forms of lithium mining, including both brine-based and hard rock mining. The authors estimate that the water footprint of lithium production can range from 100 to 20,000 liters of water per kilogram of lithium, depending on the specific extraction method used. "EVs are a big win on pollution even when largely powered by coal." This is a common misconception because the power generation for these cars has to come from somewhere... If the power generation for these cars is coal or oil where that energy is being generated is polluting those people. You are correct that it is way better for the environment in terms of driving emissions, but the emissions used to generate the power are often ignored and unless it's done, the healthy mix of alternatives such as wind, hydro, solar geothermal and nuclear, it's absolutely Ludacris suggest that EVs are cleaner without taking into account where the power is being generated.

by runako 4y ago

cubefox 4y ago

As an aside, EV doesn't mean renewable. In Germany the nuclear reactors have been turned off due to the influence of the Green party, and natural gas transfer from Nord Stream I was stopped by Russia due to the Ukraine war. As a consequence, more energy is now created from coal, since renewables like wind and solar are too volatile to replace nuclear and natural gas.

epistasis 4y ago
By this logic, using diesel-powered haul trucks to Mike uranium, and building nuclear reactor facilities with massive amounts of steel rebar and concrete, both of which we don't even know how to decarbonize, means that nuclear is not low emissions either. The only valid argument is a quantitative one, and in that regime, EVs powered with a tiny fraction of coal, like the grid in Germany, are a massive win. But I will say that I'm not surprised to see yet another pro-nuclear, anti-other-clean-tech take. These two things seem to go hand in hand.
bob_theslob646 4y ago
I'm not sure why this comment is being down voted. All it is stating is facts. Most of the lithium needed for electric vehicles is going to be mined and that is not an environmental friendly process. No one's talking about how they're going to power electric vehicles in the United States... It's a ticking time bomb for energy infrastructure in the United States. They should be pursuing everything all at once,not reducing because you always need a backup.
- epistasis 4y ago
  None of this is true. Coal is a minor component of Germany's power, and even if it were bigger, EVs are a big win on pollution even when largely powered by coal. And as for lithium being "dirty" have you bothered to even compare it to other sources of mining? Such as for the massive amount of stew that goes into cars? Or the absolutely massive amounts of waste and destruction that happens to extract oil to power cars? Citing "environmental damage" but not acknowledging right away that it's far far far less than the alternatives is simply playing rhetorical games. We must be far more logical and realistic and pragmatic if we want to take care of the environment. Above all, factuality is important.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - cameldrv 4y ago
    Coal is about 35% of electricity in Germany.
    - cubefox 4y ago
      Yeah: > More than a third (36.3%) of the electricity produced and fed into the grid in Germany in the third quarter of 2022 came from coal-fired power plants (third quarter of 2021: 31.9%). https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2022/12/PE22_518_433.html https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2022/12/PE22_518_433.html And that number is from before the last nuclear reactors were turned off.
  - bob_theslob646 4y ago
    https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220105-lithium-batteries-big-unanswered-question https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220105-lithium-batterie... Yeah, I suggest you start posting some facts because that's quite a claim. Lithium uses a f** load of water to be mined, more so than copper more so than gold or zinc. (Water Use in Industries of the Future: Mining Industry" by the U.S. Department of Energy) The water footprint of lithium production" by M. Northey, T. Mudd, and D. Werner, published in ScienceDirect: This research article provides a detailed analysis of the water requirements for various forms of lithium mining, including both brine-based and hard rock mining. The authors estimate that the water footprint of lithium production can range from 100 to 20,000 liters of water per kilogram of lithium, depending on the specific extraction method used. "EVs are a big win on pollution even when largely powered by coal." This is a common misconception because the power generation for these cars has to come from somewhere... If the power generation for these cars is coal or oil where that energy is being generated is polluting those people. You are correct that it is way better for the environment in terms of driving emissions, but the emissions used to generate the power are often ignored and unless it's done, the healthy mix of alternatives such as wind, hydro, solar geothermal and nuclear, it's absolutely Ludacris suggest that EVs are cleaner without taking into account where the power is being generated.