3 ms·
There's wisdom in what you say. At the same time, technology adoption curves only get to 100% at the asymptote. For example, one still encounters a need to send
by runako 4y ago
There's wisdom in what you say. At the same time, technology adoption curves only get to 100% at the asymptote. For example, one still encounters a need to send a fax from time to time, and some people still have landlines.
That said, the auto market at 50% or 70% EV adoption will still be a big deal! And we might find out that some of the issues that folks see with EVs are solvable and/or aren't that important anyway. For example: the average American summer road trip is under 300 miles, so the range anxiety might be ameliorated by wider availability of faster chargers than are available today. Similarly, we might learn that users of heavy equipment are in the habit of taking breaks during which they could charge their equipment, etc.
- calvinmorrison 4y agoMy bigger concern is just how damn reliable new vehicles are. The average age of a car on the road today is like 12 years. Even if we start selling 100% electric cars tomorrow, the curve is a lot fatter and the cut over slower. On the other hand, this is a great thing because it will smooth out the transition
- klooney 4y agoGas stations going under may really accelerate the tail end of the process. Their business model is going to break down, and then range anxiety for gas/diesel will make them less viable.
- dd36 4y agoDo they even make money off of gas?
- amalcon 4y agoNot really, but that doesn't mean they would continue to exist without it.
- calvinmorrison 4y agoMaybe. Range anxiety is less of an issue. A 2021 Toyota Camry has a 15.8 gallon tank. Functionally 500 miles of range. Even to reserve a few gallons we're at 400 miles per tank. Probably what would happen if this was a real concern is they'd just make the gas tanks bigger. It's not that hard to do so.
- saltcured 4y agoI've seen estimates that cars in the US are scrapped at approximately the same rate new cars are being sold. Somewhere around 12M - 15M per year. That's less than 10% of the estimated fleet, but still consequential. I'm not sure how to reconcile these figures with the apparently growing average age of the fleet. I suppose it means there are a lot of early deaths for relatively new cars due to accidents and other calamity.