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This has been true for the past 30 years. I’m beginning to suspect peak oil was never an actual prediction, and more of a statement—or rather a lie—that we wou

This has been true for the past 30 years. I’m beginning to suspect peak oil was never an actual prediction, and more of a statement—or rather a lie—that we would naturally wean of fossil fuels in a couple of years as production would slow. I’m beginning to think peak oil was always a ruse so that the fossil fuel industry could delay climate actions for another couple of decades (and doom us all in a climate disaster while they were at it).

wkat4242 4y ago
Well, fossil fuels are obviously finite so there will always be a peak. The concept itself is sound. The question is when and where it will occur. On one side more difficult extractions become viable, on the other side green energy makes the oil economy less viable (though notably most plastics are still fossil based)
philipkglass 4y ago
The "peak oil" concept originates in a 1956 paper by Marion King Hubbert titled "Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels." You can read it here: https://web.archive.org/web/20080527233843/http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/20080527233843/http://www.hubber... Here's the central thesis: "When we consider that it has taken 500 million years of geological history to accumulate the present supplies of fossil fuels, it should be clear that, although the same geological processes are still operative, the amount of new fossil fuels that is likely to be produced during the next few thousands of years will be inconsequential. Therefore, as an essential part of our analysis, we can assume with complete assurance that the industrial exploitation of the fossil fuels will consist in the progressive exhaustion of an initially fixed supply to which there will be no significant additions during the period of our interest." The paper outlines the historical growth of fossil fuel exploitation and posits how it will reach a peak and then decline. The last third of it notes that nuclear fuels, having an energy content several orders of magnitude greater than that of fossil fuels, can supply abundant energy for at least 5000 years into the future. The age of fossil fuels is a short lived transitional phase in the development of industrial civilization. "Peak oil" later accumulated a vast penumbra of connotations beyond Hubbert's rather technical and dry outlook. The peak oil movement, if it can be called such, has in recent decades predicted the imminent collapse of industrial civilization due to oil shortages. Neither Hubbert's original prediction nor the more recent peak oil collapse predictions have been driven by climate change denial. At best (worst?) I remember peak oilers who believed that we needed to increase coal exploitation because otherwise we'd be facing gigadeaths from energy shortages in a decade or two.

wkat4242 4y ago

Well, fossil fuels are obviously finite so there will always be a peak. The concept itself is sound. The question is when and where it will occur. On one side more difficult extractions become viable, on the other side green energy makes the oil economy less viable (though notably most plastics are still fossil based)

philipkglass 4y ago

The "peak oil" concept originates in a 1956 paper by Marion King Hubbert titled "Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels." You can read it here: https://web.archive.org/web/20080527233843/http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/20080527233843/http://www.hubber... Here's the central thesis: "When we consider that it has taken 500 million years of geological history to accumulate the present supplies of fossil fuels, it should be clear that, although the same geological processes are still operative, the amount of new fossil fuels that is likely to be produced during the next few thousands of years will be inconsequential. Therefore, as an essential part of our analysis, we can assume with complete assurance that the industrial exploitation of the fossil fuels will consist in the progressive exhaustion of an initially fixed supply to which there will be no significant additions during the period of our interest." The paper outlines the historical growth of fossil fuel exploitation and posits how it will reach a peak and then decline. The last third of it notes that nuclear fuels, having an energy content several orders of magnitude greater than that of fossil fuels, can supply abundant energy for at least 5000 years into the future. The age of fossil fuels is a short lived transitional phase in the development of industrial civilization. "Peak oil" later accumulated a vast penumbra of connotations beyond Hubbert's rather technical and dry outlook. The peak oil movement, if it can be called such, has in recent decades predicted the imminent collapse of industrial civilization due to oil shortages. Neither Hubbert's original prediction nor the more recent peak oil collapse predictions have been driven by climate change denial. At best (worst?) I remember peak oilers who believed that we needed to increase coal exploitation because otherwise we'd be facing gigadeaths from energy shortages in a decade or two.