> It appears that even big companies make suboptimal market decisions on quite a frequent basis. This topic is covered with a focus on renewable (but applicabl

> It appears that even big companies make suboptimal market decisions on quite a frequent basis. This topic is covered with a focus on renewable (but applicable otherwise) in [1, pdf]. By accounting for cost of capital, volatility of the commodity, expected sale price, shutdown and startup costs, and a couple other variables, you can optimize the decision on how to act as a producer. Having previously been responsible for forecasting natural gas consumption at one of the largest aluminum plants in the world, I can confirm inflexibility is a big component. Shutting one section of a plant down for a day is disruptive enough for planned maintenance. You need a really big incentive to shut it down on short notice, and you'll feel the effects your days to weeks in the future. Ideally you've sold product to book every machine pretty evenly and you're "sweating the assets", working them hard. [1] An Exit and Entry Study of Renewable Power Producers: A Real Options Approach (PDF) https://dr.lib.iastate.edu/bitstreams/7607fc3a-9acd-40a9-9468-499685f21603/download&ved=2ahUKEwi6-bmSncX-AhW1kYkEHUlbAbsQFnoECBUQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1X9716thiT3QspB19H-Vxa https://dr.lib.iastate.edu/bitstreams/7607fc3a-9acd-40a9-946...