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A Used Nissan Leaf with ~70-80mi range can be had in the US in the $6-10k range. My family has two, they're amazing for everything within a ~30mi radius (which,

by mwint 3y ago

A Used Nissan Leaf with ~70-80mi range can be had in the US in the $6-10k range. My family has two, they're amazing for everything within a ~30mi radius (which, it turns out, is 98%+ of driving we do)

Marsymars 3y ago
Taking a look at online listings for used cars in my province, the cheapest Leafs are in the $14k range for models that are about as old as my existing secondary car. I'd crunch the numbers more seriously if I had to replace my secondary car today. For some napkin math, assuming I only charge at home and my cost of electricity doesn't go up for the next decade, I'd be looking at about $3500 in electricity costs for 10k km/year for the next decade. Say the $14k car depreciates to $4k over the decade, that's $10k in depreciation. To match my existing car costs that leaves me with an average of $1720 to spend per year on maintenance (which, in my spreadsheet, includes tire changes/replacements, yearly detailing, any other misc parts) on a car that will be close to 20 years old with 200k km by the end of the decade. Might be workable? My current ICE car has run about $800/yr in maintenance after subtracting oil/engine-related costs in years 2-12 of its life. Leaf also seems higher risk - with my current low-value car, there isn't much potential for catastrophic failure (like a battery failure would be), and if there were a catastrophic failure, I'm just out the cost of the car, which isn't much.
- mwint 3y ago
  Personally, I went from a fully-owned 1997 near-mint Honda Civic to a 2014 Leaf. It handles all my driving needs (and the family still has a gas car for the _very_ rare long trip). I ran all the numbers in a big spreadsheet and determined that with fairly pessimistic numbers on the Leaf for depreciation/maintenance, and very optimistic numbers on the Civic for the same, total-cost-of-ownership worked out to approximately the same per mile. Insane. So I bought the Leaf for $8k about three years ago. In that time it's roughly held its value or maybe appreciated due to the crazy market we're in, and I'm saving roughly $750/year (6k mi/yr, about) in fuel. More than offset the depreciation in my case, so far. And, more importantly because all these costs are super tiny in the grand scheme of my finances, I'm driving a 2014 car instead of a 1997. More comfortable and probably much safer.
  - Marsymars 3y ago
    Yeah, looks like a clear win there. The market wonkiness over the past few years doesn't help my scenario - for $14k (upfront, minus whatever I could sell the old car for) I could go from a 2011 Ford Fiesta to a 2011 Leaf with comparable mileage. Due to said market wonkiness the Fiesta hasn't depreciated much, but since it wasn't worth much to start, those savings are limited. FWIW my real numbers on the Fiesta over the past decade have worked out to 9¢/km depreciation, 6¢/km in ICE-specific maintenance, 9¢/km in non-ICE-specific maintenance and 7¢/km in fuel. My home electric costs would run around 3.5¢/km for the Leaf, so I'd only be saving 3.5¢/km (or $350/year) in fuel. (And I'm locked in to a 5-year electricity contract at a pretty low rate for the area. If I had to re-sign today, my electric costs for a Leaf would be around 5¢/km.)
    - mwint 3y ago
      From your use of kilometers, I’m guessing you’re not in the US. Feels like that’s a double whammy because: 1) The insane distances in the US are what make a Leaf unusable as an only-car, reducing demand (and thus resale price) 2) I can’t do the math right now to figure out your electric rate, but my electricity is $0.1/kWh, or about $0.025 per mile (mile!) with pessimistic Leaf efficiencies. Both of those are pretty strong headwinds vs. my situation.
      - Marsymars 3y ago
        1) Canada. Similar distances, I expect resale price is more affected by supply of older models. The US had 115k Leafs sold through 2017, Canada had 5.5k sold through 2017, or about 40% on a per-capita basis. Not sure why such a discrepancy. (Though from a quick check, after currency conversion, the starting price of a 2023 Leaf in Canada is 8% higher than in the US before taxes. Compare to e.g. a Corolla which is 11% lower before taxes.) 2) 17¢/kWh in AB, though current rates would be either 23¢/kWh on a fixed-rate contract or current floating rates are in the 25¢/kWh range.

by mwint 3y ago

Marsymars 3y ago

Taking a look at online listings for used cars in my province, the cheapest Leafs are in the $14k range for models that are about as old as my existing secondary car. I'd crunch the numbers more seriously if I had to replace my secondary car today. For some napkin math, assuming I only charge at home and my cost of electricity doesn't go up for the next decade, I'd be looking at about $3500 in electricity costs for 10k km/year for the next decade. Say the $14k car depreciates to $4k over the decade, that's $10k in depreciation. To match my existing car costs that leaves me with an average of $1720 to spend per year on maintenance (which, in my spreadsheet, includes tire changes/replacements, yearly detailing, any other misc parts) on a car that will be close to 20 years old with 200k km by the end of the decade. Might be workable? My current ICE car has run about $800/yr in maintenance after subtracting oil/engine-related costs in years 2-12 of its life. Leaf also seems higher risk - with my current low-value car, there isn't much potential for catastrophic failure (like a battery failure would be), and if there were a catastrophic failure, I'm just out the cost of the car, which isn't much.

mwint 3y ago
Personally, I went from a fully-owned 1997 near-mint Honda Civic to a 2014 Leaf. It handles all my driving needs (and the family still has a gas car for the _very_ rare long trip). I ran all the numbers in a big spreadsheet and determined that with fairly pessimistic numbers on the Leaf for depreciation/maintenance, and very optimistic numbers on the Civic for the same, total-cost-of-ownership worked out to approximately the same per mile. Insane. So I bought the Leaf for $8k about three years ago. In that time it's roughly held its value or maybe appreciated due to the crazy market we're in, and I'm saving roughly $750/year (6k mi/yr, about) in fuel. More than offset the depreciation in my case, so far. And, more importantly because all these costs are super tiny in the grand scheme of my finances, I'm driving a 2014 car instead of a 1997. More comfortable and probably much safer.
- Marsymars 3y ago
  Yeah, looks like a clear win there. The market wonkiness over the past few years doesn't help my scenario - for $14k (upfront, minus whatever I could sell the old car for) I could go from a 2011 Ford Fiesta to a 2011 Leaf with comparable mileage. Due to said market wonkiness the Fiesta hasn't depreciated much, but since it wasn't worth much to start, those savings are limited. FWIW my real numbers on the Fiesta over the past decade have worked out to 9¢/km depreciation, 6¢/km in ICE-specific maintenance, 9¢/km in non-ICE-specific maintenance and 7¢/km in fuel. My home electric costs would run around 3.5¢/km for the Leaf, so I'd only be saving 3.5¢/km (or $350/year) in fuel. (And I'm locked in to a 5-year electricity contract at a pretty low rate for the area. If I had to re-sign today, my electric costs for a Leaf would be around 5¢/km.)
  - mwint 3y ago
    From your use of kilometers, I’m guessing you’re not in the US. Feels like that’s a double whammy because: 1) The insane distances in the US are what make a Leaf unusable as an only-car, reducing demand (and thus resale price) 2) I can’t do the math right now to figure out your electric rate, but my electricity is $0.1/kWh, or about $0.025 per mile (mile!) with pessimistic Leaf efficiencies. Both of those are pretty strong headwinds vs. my situation.
    - Marsymars 3y ago
      1) Canada. Similar distances, I expect resale price is more affected by supply of older models. The US had 115k Leafs sold through 2017, Canada had 5.5k sold through 2017, or about 40% on a per-capita basis. Not sure why such a discrepancy. (Though from a quick check, after currency conversion, the starting price of a 2023 Leaf in Canada is 8% higher than in the US before taxes. Compare to e.g. a Corolla which is 11% lower before taxes.) 2) 17¢/kWh in AB, though current rates would be either 23¢/kWh on a fixed-rate contract or current floating rates are in the 25¢/kWh range.