4 ms·

> Not a fan of enormously big companies, but at least the U.S. has the likes of Amazon, Tesla, and Microsoft offering much utility. Tesla is (in)famously overv

by sofixa 4y ago

> Not a fan of enormously big companies, but at least the U.S. has the likes of Amazon, Tesla, and Microsoft offering much utility. Tesla is (in)famously overvalued. Their market cap is higher than most other car manufacturers (pumping out many times more vehicles than Tesla is), most of whom have caught up on EVs (is Toyota the only big manufacturer still lagging on EVs? I think they are). It's purely the brand of their CEO which is of course floundering because he's incapable of keeping his mouth shut and first comer advantage, and both of those are disappearing fast. Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google have real utility, true, and they're huge, all across the world. > What a sore lack of innovation That's the wrong way of looking at things IMO. Just because the biggest companies are old and in non-tech niches doesn't mean there's no innovation. You can't seriously claim that companies such as VW Group, Stellantis, Airbus don't innovate? Let alone the smaller star/scale-ups (just a few French examples: BackMarket, Doctolib, Ornikar). There's plenty of innovation, it just isn't what's best valued and highest earning. A French innovating startup first has to capture the French market, then expand to neighbouring countries (of course that means legal and translating challenges at the very least) to be able to become big enough for those huge valuations. An American one is starting with a much bigger market to be able to capture, so of course a French innovator will be lagging in terms of global market share and valuation; that doesn't make them any less innovative though. As a small example, Doctolib have practically revolutionised doctor's appointments in France and are exporting the model to other countries. Innovating in the healthcare space is very difficult due to a variety of reasons (highly sensitive data, lots of incumbents, doctors don't necessarily want to have any tech involved any more than necessary) but they did it with great tech.

bryanlarsen 4y ago
Tesla has a P/E ratio of 50 and annual earnings growth rate of 75%. It's hard to argue that's overvalued. Due to the reduction in CO2, NOx and SOx, it is estimated that Tesla has prevented over 100,000 premature deaths. OTOH, Google & Meta are advertising companies. I question their utility to the world.
- sofixa 4y ago
  > Tesla has a P/E ratio of 50 and annual earnings growth rate of 75%. It's hard to argue that's overvalued. VW Group has had a 5 year maximum P/E ratio of 20.69; for Stellantis it's 4.11 (but they're less than 2 years old). True that Tesla is seeing some very good revenue growth, 51% for 2022 compared to 2021. But that revenue is at $86 billion, meanwhile VW Group are at $307 billion. It is flat out ridiculous how overpriced Tesla are, nothing justifies them having a higher market cap than say VW Group.
  - FredPret 4y ago
    From my very quick glance at the numbers, they make roughly the same amount of profit. From that starting point, add in Tesla's much more rapid growth. Then add in another factor for VW having products optimized for a rapidly-disappearing era. TSLA is still overhyped, but I would never invest in VW, unless the stock takes a massive dive, or they spin out Porsche.
  - bryanlarsen 4y ago
    Volkswagen has $185B in debt. When your debt is a lot larger then your market cap the ratios get funny. As an enterprise, VW has a lot of value. But almost all of that goes towards covering the debt rather than providing shareholder value.
    - Goz3rr 4y ago
      As a side note for people wondering why they have so much debt, it's mostly from their financing department. The list of most indebted companies is comprised of mostly car makers for that reason: VW, Ford, Toyota and BMW make up half the top 8.
      - ZephyrBlu 4y ago
        So their debt is almost more like bonds (E: maybe bank loan is a better equivalent) than what most people would think of as debt? Like, if they stopped selling cars today they would theoretically recoup all of that debt once all the cars they've sold have been fully paid off via financing.
selectodude 4y ago
LVMH with their PE of 33x is no less overvalued than Tesla, imo.
retinaros 4y ago
i laughed at doctolib revolutionizing appointments. do you know how they started? by being buddies with the government not byhaving revolutionnary tech. online appointment booking exist for years in some most developped countries. the first time they got lot of user on their platform it went down. thats no revolution that is typical old europe style of innovation where you innovate because u get the market for free thanks to your buddies in the gov. that is also why public it systems suck so much in france, ecause they push for the IT companies giving money to their party and put their buddies in position not to innovate but to get a nice check and bill lot of money for bare maintenance.oh and the platform is awful no way to differentiate a practician from another, no way to give feedback, interactions are limited to robot-like interactions and you cant deviate from the script, id argue it made everything worse because now many doctors dont have assistants as everything is handled by doctolib which reduce the way for normal people and elderly people to interacte with their practitioners office. its typical of the current gov btw, destroying public service, or at best keeping it in life support (ameli) , scrapping its data and allowing a company and its shareholder to maie millions out of it while the company looses millions (obviously except the shareholders that were early enough and are really tight to officials)
- sofixa 4y ago
  That was a wild and complicated read, please consider using paragraphs and better structure next time. Doctolib have been massive since well before the current government came into power, so what the hell are you blaming them for? The contract for Covid vaccine appointments? If that's the first time you heard of them, you're not representative of the French population at large. And yes, it absolutely made sense to give a contract to a company that can deliver now (with hiccups at the beginning) instead of wasting time on developing something from scratch. Yes, many doctors don't have assistants nowadays, which makes the experience better for 90%+ of the population and saves on admin costs. The UX of a few clicks in an app (where you can differentiate doctors of course) is much better than calling, waiting for someone to pick up, and then negotiating dates while they're pressed. Also, doctors' offices (where there are a few doctors sharing space) usually still have assistants, as do clinics and the like, so for those that can't use an app there are still alternatives. As for the public IT systems, you have got to be kidding. I came to France in 2012, and I can tell you that in the last 10 years there have been massive improvements in public IT. Most of it is actually good and usable - France Connect, ANTS, Impots, Ameli, etc. are a breeze. You can schedule appointments, do administrative stuff (like order new documents, submit tax info) quite easily and accessibly. Urssaf's website for autoentrepreneurs could be better though. Ah, the good old "the current government is destroying public services". Which services, exactly? Ameli's budget has been steadily increasing every year under the current government, since well before the pandemic. With less than what they ask for, but still increasing.
HopenHeyHi 4y ago
> Tesla is (in)famously overvalued. > Their market cap is higher than most other car manufacturers (pumping out many times more vehicles than Tesla is), most of whom have caught up on EVs (is Toyota the only big manufacturer still lagging on EVs? I think they are) Tesla is a top 5 car manufacturer by earnings at $14B for 2022. Toyota is next up that list at earnings of $20B. Tesla sell almost 0.5 million EVs a quarter and has a 60% EV market share in the US, it sells more than everybody else combined currently, and is growing very fast. Hard to know how it will all shake out but so far nobody has caught up. Doesn't mean they can't but they are chasing. EV share of the US market is only 7% but is clearly the future, and again, Tesla has 60% (!) share in that market segment. Looking forward there is the Gigafactory in Mexico and the Cybertruck release. If that is a hit Tesla will maintain its market leader position in 2024 and surpass Toyota in earnings. And they keep dropping prices. With smaller earnings than Tesla, and no institutional knowledge of making EVs it is hard to come up with a reason how and why Toyota can end up with a larger share of the EV market - suddenly they will find themselves in the position of the scrappy startup and Tesla the incumbant. That is the reason for the market cap, not mean tweets or dank memes - investors don't care about that. Probably the list of EV leaders will be mostly new companies like Tesla, not legacy brands. Maybe some Chinese companies. Whatever the case it will look very different than today.
pitaj 4y ago
> Tesla is (in)famously overvalued. Short it then.
- polygamous_bat 4y ago
  "The market can stay irrational for much longer than you can stay solvent", after all.

by sofixa 4y ago

bryanlarsen 4y ago

Tesla has a P/E ratio of 50 and annual earnings growth rate of 75%. It's hard to argue that's overvalued. Due to the reduction in CO2, NOx and SOx, it is estimated that Tesla has prevented over 100,000 premature deaths. OTOH, Google & Meta are advertising companies. I question their utility to the world.

sofixa 4y ago
> Tesla has a P/E ratio of 50 and annual earnings growth rate of 75%. It's hard to argue that's overvalued. VW Group has had a 5 year maximum P/E ratio of 20.69; for Stellantis it's 4.11 (but they're less than 2 years old). True that Tesla is seeing some very good revenue growth, 51% for 2022 compared to 2021. But that revenue is at $86 billion, meanwhile VW Group are at $307 billion. It is flat out ridiculous how overpriced Tesla are, nothing justifies them having a higher market cap than say VW Group.
- FredPret 4y ago
  From my very quick glance at the numbers, they make roughly the same amount of profit. From that starting point, add in Tesla's much more rapid growth. Then add in another factor for VW having products optimized for a rapidly-disappearing era. TSLA is still overhyped, but I would never invest in VW, unless the stock takes a massive dive, or they spin out Porsche.
- bryanlarsen 4y ago
  Volkswagen has $185B in debt. When your debt is a lot larger then your market cap the ratios get funny. As an enterprise, VW has a lot of value. But almost all of that goes towards covering the debt rather than providing shareholder value.
  - Goz3rr 4y ago
    As a side note for people wondering why they have so much debt, it's mostly from their financing department. The list of most indebted companies is comprised of mostly car makers for that reason: VW, Ford, Toyota and BMW make up half the top 8.
    - ZephyrBlu 4y ago
      So their debt is almost more like bonds (E: maybe bank loan is a better equivalent) than what most people would think of as debt? Like, if they stopped selling cars today they would theoretically recoup all of that debt once all the cars they've sold have been fully paid off via financing.

selectodude 4y ago

LVMH with their PE of 33x is no less overvalued than Tesla, imo.

retinaros 4y ago

i laughed at doctolib revolutionizing appointments. do you know how they started? by being buddies with the government not byhaving revolutionnary tech. online appointment booking exist for years in some most developped countries. the first time they got lot of user on their platform it went down. thats no revolution that is typical old europe style of innovation where you innovate because u get the market for free thanks to your buddies in the gov. that is also why public it systems suck so much in france, ecause they push for the IT companies giving money to their party and put their buddies in position not to innovate but to get a nice check and bill lot of money for bare maintenance.oh and the platform is awful no way to differentiate a practician from another, no way to give feedback, interactions are limited to robot-like interactions and you cant deviate from the script, id argue it made everything worse because now many doctors dont have assistants as everything is handled by doctolib which reduce the way for normal people and elderly people to interacte with their practitioners office. its typical of the current gov btw, destroying public service, or at best keeping it in life support (ameli) , scrapping its data and allowing a company and its shareholder to maie millions out of it while the company looses millions (obviously except the shareholders that were early enough and are really tight to officials)

sofixa 4y ago
That was a wild and complicated read, please consider using paragraphs and better structure next time. Doctolib have been massive since well before the current government came into power, so what the hell are you blaming them for? The contract for Covid vaccine appointments? If that's the first time you heard of them, you're not representative of the French population at large. And yes, it absolutely made sense to give a contract to a company that can deliver now (with hiccups at the beginning) instead of wasting time on developing something from scratch. Yes, many doctors don't have assistants nowadays, which makes the experience better for 90%+ of the population and saves on admin costs. The UX of a few clicks in an app (where you can differentiate doctors of course) is much better than calling, waiting for someone to pick up, and then negotiating dates while they're pressed. Also, doctors' offices (where there are a few doctors sharing space) usually still have assistants, as do clinics and the like, so for those that can't use an app there are still alternatives. As for the public IT systems, you have got to be kidding. I came to France in 2012, and I can tell you that in the last 10 years there have been massive improvements in public IT. Most of it is actually good and usable - France Connect, ANTS, Impots, Ameli, etc. are a breeze. You can schedule appointments, do administrative stuff (like order new documents, submit tax info) quite easily and accessibly. Urssaf's website for autoentrepreneurs could be better though. Ah, the good old "the current government is destroying public services". Which services, exactly? Ameli's budget has been steadily increasing every year under the current government, since well before the pandemic. With less than what they ask for, but still increasing.

HopenHeyHi 4y ago

> Tesla is (in)famously overvalued. > Their market cap is higher than most other car manufacturers (pumping out many times more vehicles than Tesla is), most of whom have caught up on EVs (is Toyota the only big manufacturer still lagging on EVs? I think they are) Tesla is a top 5 car manufacturer by earnings at $14B for 2022. Toyota is next up that list at earnings of $20B. Tesla sell almost 0.5 million EVs a quarter and has a 60% EV market share in the US, it sells more than everybody else combined currently, and is growing very fast. Hard to know how it will all shake out but so far nobody has caught up. Doesn't mean they can't but they are chasing. EV share of the US market is only 7% but is clearly the future, and again, Tesla has 60% (!) share in that market segment. Looking forward there is the Gigafactory in Mexico and the Cybertruck release. If that is a hit Tesla will maintain its market leader position in 2024 and surpass Toyota in earnings. And they keep dropping prices. With smaller earnings than Tesla, and no institutional knowledge of making EVs it is hard to come up with a reason how and why Toyota can end up with a larger share of the EV market - suddenly they will find themselves in the position of the scrappy startup and Tesla the incumbant. That is the reason for the market cap, not mean tweets or dank memes - investors don't care about that. Probably the list of EV leaders will be mostly new companies like Tesla, not legacy brands. Maybe some Chinese companies. Whatever the case it will look very different than today.

pitaj 4y ago

> Tesla is (in)famously overvalued. Short it then.

polygamous_bat 4y ago
"The market can stay irrational for much longer than you can stay solvent", after all.