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A person getting elected to repeat offices doesn't mean that their elections are dependent on each other - it's easy to argue that a party usually allows an inc
by llimllib 18y ago
A person getting elected to repeat offices doesn't mean that their elections are dependent on each other - it's easy to argue that a party usually allows an incumbent to run, and each election is usually between only two people, so a high re-election rate can be modeled without making elections dependent on each other.
What you'd need to somehow show in order to claim that elections are not independent is that the data from the previous election itself influenced the next election.
(right? I'm no statistician so if I'm being dumb somebody please correct me)
- dangoldin 18y agoBut if I am elected to an office and there is a 70% chance that if I run again I'll be reelected doesn't that mean the latter is dependent on the former. Anyways, I did some analysis of the Presidential elections data using wikipedia and it turns out that there were 8 presidents who ran for reelection and lost and there were 16 presidents who had more than 1 term in office. I'll write this up in a blog post to show the data.