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I’m not sure you can dismiss someone being “consistently lucky” so easily. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecaster https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supe

I’m not sure you can dismiss someone being “consistently lucky” so easily. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecaster https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecaster The thing that would concern me more is the pattern of dishonesty than that the person did well over a long time by just going with their gut.

fauxpause_ 4y ago
> Superforecasters do not predict the future with perfect accuracy: Bloomberg notes that they made a prediction of 23% for a leave vote in the month of the June 2016 Brexit referendum. On the other hand, the BBC notes that they accurately predicted Donald Trump's success in the 2016 Republican Party primaries.[11] Is there any good documentation on superforecasters efficacy? Like with actual statistical measurements? Because the Wikipedia article is really dumb.