3 ms·
That portfolio.com link is being misleading by only showing the EV totals. If we assume, as he does, that McCain will win MO that means the betting markets got
by davidmathers 18y ago
That portfolio.com link is being misleading by only showing the EV totals. If we assume, as he does, that McCain will win MO that means the betting markets got the right number because they got two states wrong, whereas 538 got the wrong number because Nate only got one state wrong. So which one was actually more accurate?
I posted the predictions broken out by state here on HN the night before the election: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=353182 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=353182
- llimllib 18y agoI tend to agree that 538 was better; I shouldn't have editorialized that the race was too close to call. I really just meant to summarize the two articles I'd come across that were on exactly this topic. Thanks for collecting that data.