The massive success of the iPhone was not a foregone conclusion from day one. But it was obvious that Apple was entering the market as a serious contender with

The massive success of the iPhone was not a foregone conclusion from day one. But it was obvious that Apple was entering the market as a serious contender with a product that had industry-wide ramifications and the highest possible visibility and awareness among its target market. There was no plausible way to believe that the iPhone would quickly flop and have zero long-term impact on the broader phone market. (Even if the iPhone had never even shipped, the announcement itself changed people's expectations for smartphones.) The only plausible "iPhone failure" scenarios had to postulate that Apple's competition would be able to quickly identify the key innovations in the iPhone (as opposed to features that turn out to just be a flashy gimmick) and incorporate them into their own product lines while using their incumbent status to stop Apple from expanding much beyond their initial foothold in the market. But after the success of the iPod, Apple was already the acknowledged best at distilling a well-rounded, refined product from an immature market still experimenting with new ideas.