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It’ll be hard for SMIC to do too many crazy things without being able to get ASML machines, though.

by yladiz 4y ago

jpgvm 4y ago
As pure designers yeah but Chinese government is about to do to chips what they did to solar and batteries so I wouldn't count them out yet. Might be 5-10 years before they catch up but they are by no means out of the fight.
- tooltalk 4y ago
  what did China do in battery? I thought China is still behind Japan and South Korea.
  - jpgvm 4y ago
    Uhh you may be living under a rock: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1249871/share-of-the-global-lithium-ion-battery-manufacturing-capacity-by-country/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1249871/share-of-the-glo... Not only do they currently have the largest share of current technologies they are going to be first to market with next-gen batteries too with CATL and BYD both entering mass production of sodium-ion batteries this year. These have lower energy density for now but that will likely chain as improvements land. Japan and Korea dropped the ball is what happened, it wasn't any singular error but many unforced errors over a good 10 year period that led to them being now substantially behind.
    - tooltalk 4y ago
      You mean Chinese battery companies have the largest Lithium battery market share in China where foreign competitors aren't allowed to compete? Last I checked CATL makes mostly NCM, largely based on LG Chem's tech, and then LFP. >> Japan and Korea dropped the ball is what happened, it wasn't any singular error but many unforced errors over a good 10 year period that led to them being now substantially behind.<<< You don't seem to understand the battery market. Japan and South Korea have been in the battery business at lease since the mid 1990's. Japan's manufacturing has declined over time, but LG Chem is the largest EV battery manufacturer in the world. Of course, that's the global market share, outside China -- ie, there won't be any Chinese battery in North America.

It’ll be hard for SMIC to do too many crazy things without being able to get ASML machines, though.

by yladiz 4y ago

It’ll be hard for SMIC to do too many crazy things without being able to get ASML machines, though.

As pure designers yeah but Chinese government is about to do to chips what they did to solar and batteries so I wouldn't count them out yet. Might be 5-10 years before they catch up but they are by no means out of the fight.

tooltalk 4y ago
what did China do in battery? I thought China is still behind Japan and South Korea.
- jpgvm 4y ago
  Uhh you may be living under a rock: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1249871/share-of-the-global-lithium-ion-battery-manufacturing-capacity-by-country/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1249871/share-of-the-glo... Not only do they currently have the largest share of current technologies they are going to be first to market with next-gen batteries too with CATL and BYD both entering mass production of sodium-ion batteries this year. These have lower energy density for now but that will likely chain as improvements land. Japan and Korea dropped the ball is what happened, it wasn't any singular error but many unforced errors over a good 10 year period that led to them being now substantially behind.
  - tooltalk 4y ago
    You mean Chinese battery companies have the largest Lithium battery market share in China where foreign competitors aren't allowed to compete? Last I checked CATL makes mostly NCM, largely based on LG Chem's tech, and then LFP. >> Japan and Korea dropped the ball is what happened, it wasn't any singular error but many unforced errors over a good 10 year period that led to them being now substantially behind.<<< You don't seem to understand the battery market. Japan and South Korea have been in the battery business at lease since the mid 1990's. Japan's manufacturing has declined over time, but LG Chem is the largest EV battery manufacturer in the world. Of course, that's the global market share, outside China -- ie, there won't be any Chinese battery in North America.