3 ms·

Obviously, this opinion has aged like milk. In the author's defense, Apple had, at the time, a remarkable history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Obviously, this opinion has aged like milk. In the author's defense, Apple had, at the time, a remarkable history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Remember it had only been a decade since Microsoft bailed out Apple with $150M. Apple is only a juggernaut in hindsight. By 2008, Apple had built some really nice computers that had brought them back from the edge of death, and the iPod was obviously a big hit, but neither of those would necessarily lead one to believe that they could make such a big splash in the cell phone industry. Most people who believed that the iPhone would be huge at the time were Apple true-believers.

wtallis 4y ago
The massive success of the iPhone was not a foregone conclusion from day one. But it was obvious that Apple was entering the market as a serious contender with a product that had industry-wide ramifications and the highest possible visibility and awareness among its target market. There was no plausible way to believe that the iPhone would quickly flop and have zero long-term impact on the broader phone market. (Even if the iPhone had never even shipped, the announcement itself changed people's expectations for smartphones.) The only plausible "iPhone failure" scenarios had to postulate that Apple's competition would be able to quickly identify the key innovations in the iPhone (as opposed to features that turn out to just be a flashy gimmick) and incorporate them into their own product lines while using their incumbent status to stop Apple from expanding much beyond their initial foothold in the market. But after the success of the iPod, Apple was already the acknowledged best at distilling a well-rounded, refined product from an immature market still experimenting with new ideas.
- santoshalper 3y ago
  I do agree with that. I don't think the iPhone being a flop was ever a realistic scenario. The momentum they had with the iPod alone would make it at least a modest success. I was, however, one of the people who believed Apple's strengths would not fit well in cell phone space.
snom380 4y ago
My thinking was simply that they had millions of loyal, happy iPod users that would be replacing their iPods at some point in time, and iPhone would be a natural upgrade path for them. And they had retail outlets where they could push the iPhone. But I was skeptical about them being able to deal with the mobile operators, and I underestimated how slow competitors would be to catch up.

wtallis 4y ago

The massive success of the iPhone was not a foregone conclusion from day one. But it was obvious that Apple was entering the market as a serious contender with a product that had industry-wide ramifications and the highest possible visibility and awareness among its target market. There was no plausible way to believe that the iPhone would quickly flop and have zero long-term impact on the broader phone market. (Even if the iPhone had never even shipped, the announcement itself changed people's expectations for smartphones.) The only plausible "iPhone failure" scenarios had to postulate that Apple's competition would be able to quickly identify the key innovations in the iPhone (as opposed to features that turn out to just be a flashy gimmick) and incorporate them into their own product lines while using their incumbent status to stop Apple from expanding much beyond their initial foothold in the market. But after the success of the iPod, Apple was already the acknowledged best at distilling a well-rounded, refined product from an immature market still experimenting with new ideas.

santoshalper 3y ago
I do agree with that. I don't think the iPhone being a flop was ever a realistic scenario. The momentum they had with the iPod alone would make it at least a modest success. I was, however, one of the people who believed Apple's strengths would not fit well in cell phone space.

snom380 4y ago

My thinking was simply that they had millions of loyal, happy iPod users that would be replacing their iPods at some point in time, and iPhone would be a natural upgrade path for them. And they had retail outlets where they could push the iPhone. But I was skeptical about them being able to deal with the mobile operators, and I underestimated how slow competitors would be to catch up.