> What we have seen historically is that the pessimistic estimates of scientists have matched reality better than the optimistic estimates. I wasn't aware of t

> What we have seen historically is that the pessimistic estimates of scientists have matched reality better than the optimistic estimates. I wasn't aware of this, but it also sounds hard to prove so I'd be very interested in such a study having been done. Or do you mean for climate change specifically? (That seems much more manageable to meta-analyse)