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Bitcoin: around 4,000,000,000 USD transacted yesterday on-chain (not counting off-chain)[0]. Ethereum: around 3,000,000,000 USD transacted yesterday on-chain (

Bitcoin: around 4,000,000,000 USD transacted yesterday on-chain (not counting off-chain)[0]. Ethereum: around 3,000,000,000 USD transacted yesterday on-chain (not counting off-chain)[1]. [0] https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/estimated-transac... [1] https://www.theblock.co/data/on-chain-metrics/ethereum/ethereums-adjusted-on-chain-volume-daily https://www.theblock.co/data/on-chain-metrics/ethereum/ether...

ChainOfFools 4y ago
This is such a quintessentially crypto huckster response, with all the usual blind spots in all the usual places. You've measured virtual dollars, while OP was measuring actual human users.
- olalonde 4y ago
  He didn't. Like he admitted, it's not possible to do so with any sort of accuracy using on chain data. There are over a billion Bitcoin addresses but this might overcount the number of users since wallets are typically composed of multiple addresses, or it could undercount due to the popularity of custodian service where multiple users share the same addresses. The best we can do are surveys. According to this one[0], there are around 34 million Americans that have a cryptocurrency wallet. I suppose the world wide number of users is a lot higher. [0] https://www.insiderintelligence.com/insights/us-adults-cryptocurrency-ownership-stats/ https://www.insiderintelligence.com/insights/us-adults-crypt...
  - spaceman_2020 4y ago
    I literally shared on chain data. That's actual users. Even if you assume that all 80k unique wallets that exchanged USDT yesterday were real users, that's just...80,000 users. Niche forums have more users than that. Anyone who has ever created an account on a crypto exchange has a crypto address. I have accounts at Binance, WazirX, Kraken, Crypto.com, Gate.io, Mexc, ByBit, and probably 2-3 more exchanges I can't remember. That means I have 10+ addresses. But that's not real users. Any money I've sent to exchanges is just for trading/investing. I'm not actually using the tech. On-chain usage is the only real usage. The rest is just banking with more hurdles and scams.
    - olalonde 4y ago
      > But that's not real users. I think we're in agreement here? On-chain data is more or less useless for counting actual users. That's why I was sharing survey data, which is the best approximation we can get. For actual users using the tech, it's also difficult to know but we can see that the on-chain transaction volume is quite significant (multi billion dollar daily).
      - spaceman_2020 4y ago
        > On chain data is more or less useless for counting actual users. I assume anyone who owns crypto but hasn't made any on-chain trasaction to not be a real user but just a speculator. Ergo, immaterial if you're talking about the viability of the network to scale.
        olalonde 4y ago
        I meant it was useless in the sense that we can't accurately determine the number of users from looking at on-chain data. As you've also explained in earlier comments, there is the issue of "multiple addresses - one user" and there is the issue of "single address - multiple users". If we ignore the latter issue, we can put an upper bound at ~1 billion users for Bitcoin due to the unique address count but that's just an upper bound, the actual number is lower but we can't know how much lower.
        spaceman_2020 4y ago
        We're on the same page but we're looking at different metrics. I'm talking about daily usage which, even if you assume that every wallet is a unique user, is in the tens of thousands at most. The entire point is that crypto adoption is abysmally low for a tech that almost every tech literate person in the world has heard about now, and that this tech falls apart even for this limited user base.
        olalonde 4y ago
  - ChainOfFools 4y ago
    Your link isn't showing up yet , but I can answer anyway with my own survey. I can account for over a hundred different crypto wallets, including a number of duplicates on the same chain, some of which have been active at one point or another over the past decade. At one point about 6 years ago it was close to a thousand. And in the circles I used to frequent (miners and pool ops - often the same entities), this was a middling number, not extraordinary at all. The simple observation that one runs* into the same several dozen people over, and over, and over again at every crypto congregation whether online or in person, should be a strong indication that this is an extremely inbred space and the sock puppetry amplification from principal to agent is conservatively inflating usage metrics by a factor of 100 if not more. * edit: okay this is somewhat dated information, maybe today it's a couple hundred instead of several dozen.
    - olalonde 4y ago
      > I can account for over a hundred different crypto wallets, including a number of duplicates on the same chain, some of which have been active at one point or another over the past decade. Indeed, on-chain address data is more or less useless for counting users, I mentioned this in my comments. The survey I shared wasn't based on on-chain data.
      - pclmulqdq 4y ago
        On-chain data establishes a useful upper bound on active user count, but does not say the actual number. The upper bound is low enough to say that it's a few thousand users.
        olalonde 4y ago
        The upper bound would be over 1 billion for Bitcoin (1+ billion unique addresses)[0]. The number of daily active addresses is around 1 million[1]. And that doesn't account for second layer transactions. Where do you get the "few thousand" from? [0] https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=Addresses&m=addresses.Count https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=Addresse... [1] https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=addresses.ActiveCount https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=addresses.Activ...
spaceman_2020 4y ago
Apples and oranges. I'm talking about real usage. You're talking about people exchanging house money for more make believe money. Crypto has been positioned as the decentralized alternative to Visa and SWIFT. Their real human users number in the tens of millions daily. The point remains that if the tech falls apart even with 10-20k real daily users, how does it ever scale to 10-20M daily users? Also, Bitcoin transaction volume peaked in 2018 and has been trending down for a while :)
- olalonde 4y ago
  No, this is the on-chain transaction data ("real usage"). The transactions you are referring to ("exchanging house money for more make believe money") is the exchange volume which does not appear on chain and is a lot higher ($18,000,000,000+ for Bitcoin yesterday). I'm not sure why you say transaction volume peaked in 2018, it didn't. You can zoom out from the graph I linked to and chose the "All" timeframe. There's a lot of variance but 2018 wasn't the peak. > The point remains that if the tech falls apart even with 10-20k real daily users, how does it ever scale to 10-20M daily users? Second layer systems like the Liquid network.
  - spaceman_2020 4y ago
    Does this chart look like the volume is growing vis-a-vis the marketcap and marketing? https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactions.html#alltime https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactions.ht...
    - olalonde 4y ago
      That graph is for the number of transaction, not transaction volume. Bitcoin has a max amount of transactions per block and blocks have been more or less saturated since a while so the number of transactions can't actually increase. It certainly doesn't look like it's decreasing. A lot of the transactions has been moving to second layer solutions as well, with on-chain becoming a sort of settlement layer.

ChainOfFools 4y ago

This is such a quintessentially crypto huckster response, with all the usual blind spots in all the usual places. You've measured virtual dollars, while OP was measuring actual human users.

olalonde 4y ago
He didn't. Like he admitted, it's not possible to do so with any sort of accuracy using on chain data. There are over a billion Bitcoin addresses but this might overcount the number of users since wallets are typically composed of multiple addresses, or it could undercount due to the popularity of custodian service where multiple users share the same addresses. The best we can do are surveys. According to this one[0], there are around 34 million Americans that have a cryptocurrency wallet. I suppose the world wide number of users is a lot higher. [0] https://www.insiderintelligence.com/insights/us-adults-cryptocurrency-ownership-stats/ https://www.insiderintelligence.com/insights/us-adults-crypt...
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  I literally shared on chain data. That's actual users. Even if you assume that all 80k unique wallets that exchanged USDT yesterday were real users, that's just...80,000 users. Niche forums have more users than that. Anyone who has ever created an account on a crypto exchange has a crypto address. I have accounts at Binance, WazirX, Kraken, Crypto.com, Gate.io, Mexc, ByBit, and probably 2-3 more exchanges I can't remember. That means I have 10+ addresses. But that's not real users. Any money I've sent to exchanges is just for trading/investing. I'm not actually using the tech. On-chain usage is the only real usage. The rest is just banking with more hurdles and scams.
  - olalonde 4y ago
    > But that's not real users. I think we're in agreement here? On-chain data is more or less useless for counting actual users. That's why I was sharing survey data, which is the best approximation we can get. For actual users using the tech, it's also difficult to know but we can see that the on-chain transaction volume is quite significant (multi billion dollar daily).
    - spaceman_2020 4y ago
      > On chain data is more or less useless for counting actual users. I assume anyone who owns crypto but hasn't made any on-chain trasaction to not be a real user but just a speculator. Ergo, immaterial if you're talking about the viability of the network to scale.
      - olalonde 4y ago
        I meant it was useless in the sense that we can't accurately determine the number of users from looking at on-chain data. As you've also explained in earlier comments, there is the issue of "multiple addresses - one user" and there is the issue of "single address - multiple users". If we ignore the latter issue, we can put an upper bound at ~1 billion users for Bitcoin due to the unique address count but that's just an upper bound, the actual number is lower but we can't know how much lower.
        spaceman_2020 4y ago
        We're on the same page but we're looking at different metrics. I'm talking about daily usage which, even if you assume that every wallet is a unique user, is in the tens of thousands at most. The entire point is that crypto adoption is abysmally low for a tech that almost every tech literate person in the world has heard about now, and that this tech falls apart even for this limited user base.
        olalonde 4y ago
- ChainOfFools 4y ago
  Your link isn't showing up yet , but I can answer anyway with my own survey. I can account for over a hundred different crypto wallets, including a number of duplicates on the same chain, some of which have been active at one point or another over the past decade. At one point about 6 years ago it was close to a thousand. And in the circles I used to frequent (miners and pool ops - often the same entities), this was a middling number, not extraordinary at all. The simple observation that one runs* into the same several dozen people over, and over, and over again at every crypto congregation whether online or in person, should be a strong indication that this is an extremely inbred space and the sock puppetry amplification from principal to agent is conservatively inflating usage metrics by a factor of 100 if not more. * edit: okay this is somewhat dated information, maybe today it's a couple hundred instead of several dozen.
  - olalonde 4y ago
    > I can account for over a hundred different crypto wallets, including a number of duplicates on the same chain, some of which have been active at one point or another over the past decade. Indeed, on-chain address data is more or less useless for counting users, I mentioned this in my comments. The survey I shared wasn't based on on-chain data.
    - pclmulqdq 4y ago
      On-chain data establishes a useful upper bound on active user count, but does not say the actual number. The upper bound is low enough to say that it's a few thousand users.
      - olalonde 4y ago
        The upper bound would be over 1 billion for Bitcoin (1+ billion unique addresses)[0]. The number of daily active addresses is around 1 million[1]. And that doesn't account for second layer transactions. Where do you get the "few thousand" from? [0] https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=Addresses&m=addresses.Count https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=Addresse... [1] https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=addresses.ActiveCount https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=addresses.Activ...

spaceman_2020 4y ago

Apples and oranges. I'm talking about real usage. You're talking about people exchanging house money for more make believe money. Crypto has been positioned as the decentralized alternative to Visa and SWIFT. Their real human users number in the tens of millions daily. The point remains that if the tech falls apart even with 10-20k real daily users, how does it ever scale to 10-20M daily users? Also, Bitcoin transaction volume peaked in 2018 and has been trending down for a while :)

olalonde 4y ago
No, this is the on-chain transaction data ("real usage"). The transactions you are referring to ("exchanging house money for more make believe money") is the exchange volume which does not appear on chain and is a lot higher ($18,000,000,000+ for Bitcoin yesterday). I'm not sure why you say transaction volume peaked in 2018, it didn't. You can zoom out from the graph I linked to and chose the "All" timeframe. There's a lot of variance but 2018 wasn't the peak. > The point remains that if the tech falls apart even with 10-20k real daily users, how does it ever scale to 10-20M daily users? Second layer systems like the Liquid network.
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  Does this chart look like the volume is growing vis-a-vis the marketcap and marketing? https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactions.html#alltime https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactions.ht...
  - olalonde 4y ago
    That graph is for the number of transaction, not transaction volume. Bitcoin has a max amount of transactions per block and blocks have been more or less saturated since a while so the number of transactions can't actually increase. It certainly doesn't look like it's decreasing. A lot of the transactions has been moving to second layer solutions as well, with on-chain becoming a sort of settlement layer.