3 ms·

But you can't assume that these events are independent of each other, can you?

by llimllib 18y ago

dangoldin 18y ago
Can you assume that the next elections are independent of the current ones?
- llimllib 18y ago
  Yes. Which is not to say that this year's election outcomes don't influence future events, but rather that the information flow from this year's elections will be so insignificant compared to future information by the time the next elections occur that we may accept them as independent variables. (Certainly as more independent than dependent, but I'd conjecture that the effects of the current election are so small that they may be safely handwaved away. Interesting arguments that this year's elections on any level are a major determining factor in future elections are of course welcome.)
  - dangoldin 18y ago
    I'll take a stab at it but I'm gathering data now - I have a feeling that it's pretty common for a president to get elected for a 2nd term - and repeat offices in general.
    - llimllib 18y ago
      A person getting elected to repeat offices doesn't mean that their elections are dependent on each other - it's easy to argue that a party usually allows an incumbent to run, and each election is usually between only two people, so a high re-election rate can be modeled without making elections dependent on each other. What you'd need to somehow show in order to claim that elections are not independent is that the data from the previous election itself influenced the next election. (right? I'm no statistician so if I'm being dumb somebody please correct me)
      - dangoldin 18y ago
        But if I am elected to an office and there is a 70% chance that if I run again I'll be reelected doesn't that mean the latter is dependent on the former. Anyways, I did some analysis of the Presidential elections data using wikipedia and it turns out that there were 8 presidents who ran for reelection and lost and there were 16 presidents who had more than 1 term in office. I'll write this up in a blog post to show the data.

But you can't assume that these events are independent of each other, can you?

dangoldin 18y ago

Can you assume that the next elections are independent of the current ones?

llimllib 18y ago
Yes. Which is not to say that this year's election outcomes don't influence future events, but rather that the information flow from this year's elections will be so insignificant compared to future information by the time the next elections occur that we may accept them as independent variables. (Certainly as more independent than dependent, but I'd conjecture that the effects of the current election are so small that they may be safely handwaved away. Interesting arguments that this year's elections on any level are a major determining factor in future elections are of course welcome.)
- dangoldin 18y ago
  I'll take a stab at it but I'm gathering data now - I have a feeling that it's pretty common for a president to get elected for a 2nd term - and repeat offices in general.
  - llimllib 18y ago
    A person getting elected to repeat offices doesn't mean that their elections are dependent on each other - it's easy to argue that a party usually allows an incumbent to run, and each election is usually between only two people, so a high re-election rate can be modeled without making elections dependent on each other. What you'd need to somehow show in order to claim that elections are not independent is that the data from the previous election itself influenced the next election. (right? I'm no statistician so if I'm being dumb somebody please correct me)
    - dangoldin 18y ago
      But if I am elected to an office and there is a 70% chance that if I run again I'll be reelected doesn't that mean the latter is dependent on the former. Anyways, I did some analysis of the Presidential elections data using wikipedia and it turns out that there were 8 presidents who ran for reelection and lost and there were 16 presidents who had more than 1 term in office. I'll write this up in a blog post to show the data.