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> FiveThirtyEight got Indiana right on Oct 1 from http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2008/11/06/intrade-versus-fivethirtyeight/ http://www.bayesian
by llimllib 18y ago
> FiveThirtyEight got Indiana right on Oct 1
from http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2008/11/06/intrade-versus-fivethirtyeight/ http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2008/11/06/in...
(OTOH, intrade got NC when 538 didn't)
- nihilocrat 18y agoI'm sorry I can't give specific dates, but in some of 538s most recent models (say, the last week of October), Silver was projecting NC as being a very light carolina blue. :)
- davidmathers 18y agoWhy is Oct 1 significant? On the night before the election Nate had IN as a 64% McCain win. Also, Nate, intrade, and betfair all predicted that Obama would win NC. See the link above for all the numerical details.