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Concern about the North Atlantic circulation is decreasing. Concern has just been sparked about the Antarctic circulation. Different parts of the globe. Also, t
by anonymouskimmer 4y ago
Concern about the North Atlantic circulation is decreasing. Concern has just been sparked about the Antarctic circulation. Different parts of the globe. Also, those are quotes, not my own conclusions.
If I read these articles right, I believe the North Atlantic circulation may slow, but it's not going to stop. And what is predicted to happen in the Antarctic is predicted to be worse than whatever happens in the North Atlantic.
How does one find a P-value for the accuracy of a model, when all of the parameters are not known?
- brutusborn 4y agoI'd be happy to be corrected but I think you would generate P-values the same way you check the accuracy of all climate models, you use the model to make predictions about the past and compare them to measured values. If model parameters are unknown, you should be doing a sensitivity analysis on these parameters anyway (you must have already estimated values for these to run your model in the first place). Once you have a measure of the uncertainty of your model and sensitivity to unknown parameters, you can combine this with probabilities of different warming scenarios (maybe from IPCC data), and determine the likelihood of the circulation stopping given current emissions/warming trends.
- anonymouskimmer 4y agoThanks. You know more than I do about statistics.