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Crypto isn’t the future of money. No one uses it. Its literally a few thousand people left on-chain. The DAUs of OpenSea is down to a couple of thousand. All

by spaceman_2020 4y ago

Crypto isn’t the future of money. No one uses it. Its literally a few thousand people left on-chain. The DAUs of OpenSea is down to a couple of thousand. All that hype, all that money just to serve two thousand people… Frankly, its also completely unusable. Gas cost shot up to $50/transaction on Eth mainnet because every idiot was buying memecoins named PEPE and CHAD. Even L2 solutions like Arbitrum were up to $2/transaction. ZkSync mainnet was $15-20/transaction. And that’s when there are only a few thousand active users. Imagine what happens if millions actually do come onchain. The “future of finance” is being held hostage by idiots trading shitcoins.

jejeyyy77 4y ago
What do you mean by no one uses it? The market cap of btc says otherwise…
- agumonkey 4y ago
  Using as money, not trading.
  - jejeyyy77 4y ago
    Market cap is the better metric.
    - illiarian 4y ago
      It's a useless metric if no one is using it. It's a magical purely speculative number.
      - jejeyyy77 4y ago
        Market cap is by definition people using it. They’ve exchanged their money for it.
        illiarian 4y ago
        > Market cap is by definition people using it. You and I have very different dictionaries it seems > They’ve exchanged their money for it. A thousand people trading magical tokens they pretend cost trillions of dollars doesn't make it: a) worth trillions of dollars and b) any significant usage
        jejeyyy77 4y ago
        Eh? The fact that people have exchanged trillions of “real” dollars for them means precisely that’s what they are worth lol.
        lottin 4y ago
        Market cap is meaningless. Using market cap as a metric anyone can become the richest person in the world. See here: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/igENXZRECOs https://www.youtube.com/shorts/igENXZRECOs
        the_gastropod 4y ago
        That is not how market cap works. I start a company: SquidSoft, LLC. I sell you equity: 0.000000001% of SquidSoft, LLC for $1. Bam, SquidSoft, LLC’s market cap is $1T even though only $1 has traded hands.
        agumonkey 4y ago
        using has many meanings here, and store of value was only one of them
    - yao420 4y ago
      Why when USDT is printing a billion in tether several days a week. They are artificially pumping the price. https://twitter.com/whale_alert/status/1649159592520085507?s=20 https://twitter.com/whale_alert/status/1649159592520085507?s...
humanizersequel 4y ago
> a few thousand people left on-chain. > all that money just to serve two thousand people This is clearly false and I welcome you to try and prove otherwise.
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  You know all on chain data is visible, right? 1. NFT platforms usage volume. OS is down below 5,000 users [0] 2. Arbitrum airdrop to 625k wallets. Most users have multiple wallets. I got airdrops on 3 different wallets. Some friends sybilled this to over 100 wallets. Actual unique wallets not more than 100k. Even free money can't entice people to use this. [1] 3. $PEPE total holders: 35,000. Exclude bots and multiple wallets and that's not more than 15k actual users. Hottest memecoin that shit up to $150M mcap in four days. [2] 4. USDT daily unique senders/receivers - under 80,000. This doesn't exclude bots, exchanges, smart contracts, and users with multiple wallets (I have 8 wallets). You also can't go more mainstream or "utility" than this coin. Real unique daily users are probably under 30k. [3] Exchange users are immaterial. They're just traders and investors buying the next cycle of trash. Actual usage metrics are on-chain users. This is being pitched as the next Visa but in reality, the network slows to a crawl even when it has to serve 10-20k real users. Meanwhile, Visa is able to serve literally hundreds of millions of users every month. 0. https://dune.com/queries/1622348/2688962?utm_source=mintorskip.beehiiv.com&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=nfts-are-in-free-fall https://dune.com/queries/1622348/2688962?utm_source=mintorsk... 1. https://dune.com/blockworks_research/arb-airdrop https://dune.com/blockworks_research/arb-airdrop 2. https://etherscan.io/token/0x6982508145454Ce325dDbE47a25d4ec3d2311933#balances https://etherscan.io/token/0x6982508145454Ce325dDbE47a25d4ec... 3. https://etherscan.io/token/0xdac17f958d2ee523a2206206994597c13d831ec7#tokenAnalytics https://etherscan.io/token/0xdac17f958d2ee523a2206206994597c...
  - olalonde 4y ago
    Bitcoin: around 4,000,000,000 USD transacted yesterday on-chain (not counting off-chain)[0]. Ethereum: around 3,000,000,000 USD transacted yesterday on-chain (not counting off-chain)[1]. [0] https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/estimated-transac... [1] https://www.theblock.co/data/on-chain-metrics/ethereum/ethereums-adjusted-on-chain-volume-daily https://www.theblock.co/data/on-chain-metrics/ethereum/ether...
LAMike 4y ago
I encourage you to find out the difference between "crypto" and Bitcoin I think the Lightning Network has the potential to onboard millions of people today, and billions in the future. Check out how to run you're own node, be your own bank with Bitcoin and ignore the unscalable and scammy side "crypto" projects
- foepys 4y ago
  You need to get the people on LN first, which requires an on-chain transaction. If we assume 10 tx/s (which is very generous) you need over 11 days just to onboard 10,000,000 people. Then if somebody did some funky business with the channel and it needs to get closed to save your funds (have fun monitoring all your channels by yourself or paying somebody else to do it), you need to wait for another on-chain transaction to get access to your funds again. All of this assuming that the routing problem has been solved and the big hubs (I'd call them banks) are able to serve the transactions from their initial funding and don't have to wait to open channels with more funds. LN is something that works well in a lab but collapses when used by more people than just a few nerds.
  - LAMike 4y ago
    First off, props for admitting that LN could get 10 million users on board in 11 days, even with a conservative 10 tx/s estimate. If you look into channel factories, this could scale the potential users to 100 million users in less time than ChatGPT took, which is the most viral product of the past few decades. Is that not good enough for you? About the whole routing problem and "big hubs" thing – remember, the LN is all about being decentralized. As more users and businesses join in, routing gets better and better, so you won't have to rely on any single big player. Plus, with the LN's atomic multipath payments (AMP), payments can take different paths, making it even easier to send Satoshis around the world. You can run your own node with a 10 year old Thinkpad you can buy on Ebay for $100. Also anyone with Cash App can send Bitcoin over LN, today. I don't think you would call everyone with that app a nerd, would you? There are farmers, grandmothers and people in the developing world using Bitcoin to survive today, those aren't nerds to me. Btw it's pretty funny calling other people nerds when you lurk on HN. If you haven't noticed, nerds have been running the world for a while now.
SN76477 4y ago
Crypto is a great service. But I do not see it as anything other than that. My process goes like this. I buy the crypto I need to send, I send it, I am left with 2 or 3 us dollars I didn't use in a wallet until I need to use it again. Better and easier than PayPal, but there are risks such as it isn't secured or backed up and I am ok with those risks.

jejeyyy77 4y ago

What do you mean by no one uses it? The market cap of btc says otherwise…

agumonkey 4y ago
Using as money, not trading.
- jejeyyy77 4y ago
  Market cap is the better metric.
  - illiarian 4y ago
    It's a useless metric if no one is using it. It's a magical purely speculative number.
    - jejeyyy77 4y ago
      Market cap is by definition people using it. They’ve exchanged their money for it.
      - illiarian 4y ago
        > Market cap is by definition people using it. You and I have very different dictionaries it seems > They’ve exchanged their money for it. A thousand people trading magical tokens they pretend cost trillions of dollars doesn't make it: a) worth trillions of dollars and b) any significant usage
        jejeyyy77 4y ago
        Eh? The fact that people have exchanged trillions of “real” dollars for them means precisely that’s what they are worth lol.
        lottin 4y ago
        Market cap is meaningless. Using market cap as a metric anyone can become the richest person in the world. See here: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/igENXZRECOs https://www.youtube.com/shorts/igENXZRECOs
        the_gastropod 4y ago
        That is not how market cap works. I start a company: SquidSoft, LLC. I sell you equity: 0.000000001% of SquidSoft, LLC for $1. Bam, SquidSoft, LLC’s market cap is $1T even though only $1 has traded hands.
      - agumonkey 4y ago
        using has many meanings here, and store of value was only one of them
  - yao420 4y ago
    Why when USDT is printing a billion in tether several days a week. They are artificially pumping the price. https://twitter.com/whale_alert/status/1649159592520085507?s=20 https://twitter.com/whale_alert/status/1649159592520085507?s...

humanizersequel 4y ago

> a few thousand people left on-chain. > all that money just to serve two thousand people This is clearly false and I welcome you to try and prove otherwise.

spaceman_2020 4y ago
You know all on chain data is visible, right? 1. NFT platforms usage volume. OS is down below 5,000 users [0] 2. Arbitrum airdrop to 625k wallets. Most users have multiple wallets. I got airdrops on 3 different wallets. Some friends sybilled this to over 100 wallets. Actual unique wallets not more than 100k. Even free money can't entice people to use this. [1] 3. $PEPE total holders: 35,000. Exclude bots and multiple wallets and that's not more than 15k actual users. Hottest memecoin that shit up to $150M mcap in four days. [2] 4. USDT daily unique senders/receivers - under 80,000. This doesn't exclude bots, exchanges, smart contracts, and users with multiple wallets (I have 8 wallets). You also can't go more mainstream or "utility" than this coin. Real unique daily users are probably under 30k. [3] Exchange users are immaterial. They're just traders and investors buying the next cycle of trash. Actual usage metrics are on-chain users. This is being pitched as the next Visa but in reality, the network slows to a crawl even when it has to serve 10-20k real users. Meanwhile, Visa is able to serve literally hundreds of millions of users every month. 0. https://dune.com/queries/1622348/2688962?utm_source=mintorskip.beehiiv.com&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=nfts-are-in-free-fall https://dune.com/queries/1622348/2688962?utm_source=mintorsk... 1. https://dune.com/blockworks_research/arb-airdrop https://dune.com/blockworks_research/arb-airdrop 2. https://etherscan.io/token/0x6982508145454Ce325dDbE47a25d4ec3d2311933#balances https://etherscan.io/token/0x6982508145454Ce325dDbE47a25d4ec... 3. https://etherscan.io/token/0xdac17f958d2ee523a2206206994597c13d831ec7#tokenAnalytics https://etherscan.io/token/0xdac17f958d2ee523a2206206994597c...
- olalonde 4y ago
  Bitcoin: around 4,000,000,000 USD transacted yesterday on-chain (not counting off-chain)[0]. Ethereum: around 3,000,000,000 USD transacted yesterday on-chain (not counting off-chain)[1]. [0] https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/estimated-transac... [1] https://www.theblock.co/data/on-chain-metrics/ethereum/ethereums-adjusted-on-chain-volume-daily https://www.theblock.co/data/on-chain-metrics/ethereum/ether...

LAMike 4y ago

I encourage you to find out the difference between "crypto" and Bitcoin I think the Lightning Network has the potential to onboard millions of people today, and billions in the future. Check out how to run you're own node, be your own bank with Bitcoin and ignore the unscalable and scammy side "crypto" projects

foepys 4y ago
You need to get the people on LN first, which requires an on-chain transaction. If we assume 10 tx/s (which is very generous) you need over 11 days just to onboard 10,000,000 people. Then if somebody did some funky business with the channel and it needs to get closed to save your funds (have fun monitoring all your channels by yourself or paying somebody else to do it), you need to wait for another on-chain transaction to get access to your funds again. All of this assuming that the routing problem has been solved and the big hubs (I'd call them banks) are able to serve the transactions from their initial funding and don't have to wait to open channels with more funds. LN is something that works well in a lab but collapses when used by more people than just a few nerds.
- LAMike 4y ago
  First off, props for admitting that LN could get 10 million users on board in 11 days, even with a conservative 10 tx/s estimate. If you look into channel factories, this could scale the potential users to 100 million users in less time than ChatGPT took, which is the most viral product of the past few decades. Is that not good enough for you? About the whole routing problem and "big hubs" thing – remember, the LN is all about being decentralized. As more users and businesses join in, routing gets better and better, so you won't have to rely on any single big player. Plus, with the LN's atomic multipath payments (AMP), payments can take different paths, making it even easier to send Satoshis around the world. You can run your own node with a 10 year old Thinkpad you can buy on Ebay for $100. Also anyone with Cash App can send Bitcoin over LN, today. I don't think you would call everyone with that app a nerd, would you? There are farmers, grandmothers and people in the developing world using Bitcoin to survive today, those aren't nerds to me. Btw it's pretty funny calling other people nerds when you lurk on HN. If you haven't noticed, nerds have been running the world for a while now.

SN76477 4y ago

Crypto is a great service. But I do not see it as anything other than that. My process goes like this. I buy the crypto I need to send, I send it, I am left with 2 or 3 us dollars I didn't use in a wallet until I need to use it again. Better and easier than PayPal, but there are risks such as it isn't secured or backed up and I am ok with those risks.