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I'm saying that many things that cost $100 in 2020 will cost less than $1 for the exact same thing in 2028. It is already happening in 2023. How much would it c

I'm saying that many things that cost $100 in 2020 will cost less than $1 for the exact same thing in 2028. It is already happening in 2023. How much would it cost in 2020 to get a 2000 word essay written at a 10th grade level? What is the cost of the same service today? When a service costs goes down 99% that 99% goes directly into GDP growth.

atq2119 3y ago
There may well be the occasional service that drops 100x in price, but that would apply only to a small fraction of GDP. Most goods and services are already pretty well optimized. Amdahl's law applies and means that claims of rapid order of magnitude GDP growth are completely ridiculous. Disruption is likely, yes, but we're talking about different orders of magnitude here. And GP has a point. AI affects the supply side of the economy, but sustained development depends on the demand side. Given the overall political climate, the effect of AI on the demand side is far from clear.
genezeta 3y ago
> many things ... a 2000 word essay written at a 10th grade level That is one thing, not many. And it's also a fairly specific thing. I don't know about the general population but personally my need to acquire such an essay is fairly low. I haven't had the need to buy one in the last fifty years, probably never.
tuatoru 3y ago
Well, let's see. The biggest parts of household budgets are shelter; transport; food, clothing and utilities; healthcare; and education-related costs. Are houses going to drop 99% in price? That will impoverish house owners. Are cars going to drop 99% in price, and fuel, and roads? I don't see how chatGPT helps. Can chatGPT make shoes for a dollar, or burgers for a cent? Can it provide cancer treatments? When your infant is at her early childhood center, will chatGPT wipe her nose and help her use the toilet? The best case for chatGPT's effect on GDP is a nearly invisible lift.

atq2119 3y ago

There may well be the occasional service that drops 100x in price, but that would apply only to a small fraction of GDP. Most goods and services are already pretty well optimized. Amdahl's law applies and means that claims of rapid order of magnitude GDP growth are completely ridiculous. Disruption is likely, yes, but we're talking about different orders of magnitude here. And GP has a point. AI affects the supply side of the economy, but sustained development depends on the demand side. Given the overall political climate, the effect of AI on the demand side is far from clear.

genezeta 3y ago

> many things ... a 2000 word essay written at a 10th grade level That is one thing, not many. And it's also a fairly specific thing. I don't know about the general population but personally my need to acquire such an essay is fairly low. I haven't had the need to buy one in the last fifty years, probably never.

tuatoru 3y ago

Well, let's see. The biggest parts of household budgets are shelter; transport; food, clothing and utilities; healthcare; and education-related costs. Are houses going to drop 99% in price? That will impoverish house owners. Are cars going to drop 99% in price, and fuel, and roads? I don't see how chatGPT helps. Can chatGPT make shoes for a dollar, or burgers for a cent? Can it provide cancer treatments? When your infant is at her early childhood center, will chatGPT wipe her nose and help her use the toilet? The best case for chatGPT's effect on GDP is a nearly invisible lift.